Red’s Army turns 10 years old this season, which in blog years is way too old for me to even calculate. Let’s just say if we were a dog, we’d already be “playing on a farm upstate.”
When we started, Chuck and I were on the cutting edge. We were the internet renegades… sticking it to the man, and other assorted cliche’s. Now…
So in a desperate attempt to appeal to millennials, we hired the best consultants money could buy…. which, on our budget, meant swiping a college kid’s phone and going through his browsing history.
We noticed a few trips to BuzzFeed… and after reading up on them on Wikipedia, we decided to completely rip off their idea for our season preview. So, without further ado, here’s our gif-laden clickbait listicle.
1: Marcus Smart will average at least 16 points and 5 assists a game.
Yep, that’s double his rookie year averages. Yep, that’s a big jump. I think the math is simple.
Two 3’s per game: 6 points
Three 2’s per game: 6 points
Four free throws per game: 4 points.
Boom, 16 points a game. Smart’s passing has been on point and he’s starting to create passing lanes for himself. I think 5 assists a game is a lock.
2: The Celtics will win 47 games.
They have games each against the Nets, Knicks, & 76’ers. That’s 12 games against the dregs of the NBA within their own division. Even if you account for a couple of tough losses in there, the Celtics should get 10 wins in this mess. Let’s say they split against the Raptors and we’re looking at 12 wins within the 16 division games.
That leaves 66 games for the Celtics to win 35 more games. So the Celtics romp through the worst division in the NBA, and then go 35-31 against the rest of the league, and you’ve got yourself a 47 win season. Easy Breezy.
3: The Celtics will lose in the second round of the playoffs
Everything in this list comes with the *as the team is currently constituted asterisk. The relentless, 12-deep attack will only go so far. A second-round matchup means facing a good team with at least one star that can will a team to victory.
I like this Celtics team, but they lack that guy. They’ll fight like hell, but when it gets to this point in the playoffs, the best talent wins, and I think they’ll hit a wall at this point. But hey, that’s still a hell of season, right?
4: Brooklyn will win the draft lottery
The Celtics draft luck has sucked, so they’re not winning it on their own. But the Nets are set up to be one of the worst teams in the league, and the wave of mystic momentum is leading us to this moment. Everything has broken the right way for Boston in this deal. Getting the #1 pick would be be the very sweet cherry on top of this sundae.
5: Somebody’s getting traded
OK who? I don’t know. But if Jared Sullinger is still on the outside looking in, he might be the guy. But FiveThirtyEight just ranked him 43rd among the top 53 franchise players in the NBA, so all this talk about writing him off is overblown.
My guess to be traded: David Lee. He’s gonna have a really good year for the Celtics, he’s on an expiring deal, and some real contender is going to want a guy with his skill and championship pedigree. Further, as I mentioned in the latest Rainin’ J’s podcast, you can plug Jared Sullinger back into the starting lineup for Lee and get similar results.
6: RJ Hunter will make the biggest rookie impact.
Hunter LOOKED like he belonged out there this preseason. He’s picking up defensive principles and he’s getting stronger. But most importantly, he’s the smoothest shooter on the squad. He’s the type of guy you want when you need a shooter to bury a few for you.
7: People will lose their minds over Terry Rozier and Jordan Mickey in Maine
I like how Rozier has looked, but he’s better served getting game-speed minutes. Jordan Mickey might someday be pretty good, but he’s not there yet. But both guys are way above D-League talent, and they’re going to put up some stupid numbers (Jay King elaborates on this in our latest podcast). People are going to eat them up and clamor for their return, forgetting how much James Young dominated there last year.
8: Oh, about James Young. He’s staying in Maine all year long.
Rozier might get a call back. Mickey might help in a pinch. But James Young is going to stay in Maine to figure his shit out. Don’t get too frustrated.. he’s still learning, and it’s not like the team is LOSING anything by him going to Maine. Really, what does it matter? Let him go play and grow.
The Red Claws are going to dominate this year. We’ll see the “Can the Red Claws beat the Sixers” tweets out there more than once this year.
9: Jared Sullinger will start games this season
I know he’s on the “outside looking in” right now, but he’ll start at least a few games this season. If nothing else, the Celtics are going to find places to rest players, which means David Lee will get some time off here and there. Rather than break up a very important combination of Amir Johnson & Kelly Olynyk (along with Isaiah Thomas), the Celtics will slide Jared Sullinger into the starting lineup and hope he can give some of that playmaking ability Lee brings while stretching the floor more effectively than Lee and leaving very little dropoff in the rebounding department. He’ll do ok in those games too.
10: The Celtics will have an All Star
It might take an injury replacement to do it, but one of these Boston Celtics will get onto the All Star team. I think Isaiah Thomas is the guy… and when you consider he’ll probably make another run at the 6th Man of the Year award, it stands to reason that he’d be at least in the mix.
Basically, the Celtics will be a pretty good regular season team, and when it comes down to it, coaches don’t like to leave good players who are leading winning teams off the All Star squad. The C’s will be at or near the division lead when the coaches need to fill out the roster, so book it… all this talk of an All Star-less team is over in a few months.
11. Marcus Smart will lead the team in flagrant fouls and be handed some sort of suspension
Not much of a stretch here since Smart had 2 flagrant fouls and 2 ejections last season. Hey, he’s a feisty guy who plays hard. The referees might cut him some slack now that he’s in his second season, but they won’t be forgiving if he’s still committing dumb plays like that nut shot on Matt Bonner. Don’t sleep on Tyler Zeller. Our de facto enforcer collected 2 flagrant fouls last season patrolling the paint for the C’s.
12. Someone is getting disciplined for a violation of team rules
There’s always one guy who falls into this category. Sullinger’s inability to navigate Boston traffic landed him a benching after he was late twice in one week. Facing a contract year, I gotta think Sullinger will avoid such pitfalls. James Young just looks like a guy capable of oversleeping. And since he’s likely to lose minutes to RJ Hunter, I’m expecting some pouting from James.
13. Brad Stevens will lose his shit TWICE this season
Mr. Composure has 2 technical fouls in his two seasons in Boston. Why on earth should you believe Stevens would amass two this season alone? 1) Because NBA officiating is awful and 2) Because NBA officiating is awful. A man can only suppress negative emotions for so long before the top blows.
14. The Celtics will not be a .500 team by Thanksgiving
Relax. Have you looked at the schedule? It’s no picnic. San Antonio, Houston, OKC, Atlanta (2x), Miami, and Washington (2x) are all tough contests. I’m also expecting some growing pains as Stevens figures out the kinks in his rotation. The schedule really softens up in January and February.
15. The Celtics will be a top 10 defense.
The Celtics were in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency and opponents FG%; and bottom 3rd in opponents PPG last season. So why should you believe they will jump into the top 10? Because Smart, Bradley and Crowder are absolute bulldogs. Because Amir Johnson will help make up for David Lee’s deficiencies. Because Tyler Zeller is a better rim protector than you think. Because some of the teams ranked ahead of them last season (Charlotte, Portland) will take a step back this year.
16. Avery Bradley will not shoot 40% from 3.
AB made headlines recently when he stated he wants to become one of the league’s best deep threats and shoot 40% from 3. Bradley has reached that percentage twice (2011-12, 40.7%; 2013-14 39.5%) so it’s plausible to think he can pull it off again. I’m doubtful because of Bradley’s role in the offense. He simply has to take too many contested shots. Marcus Smart isn’t good enough yet to warrant the extra attention that will take pressure off Bradley. Maybe next year…
17. Kelly Olynk will average 15 ppg and 7 rpg
I’m all in on Kelly Olynyk. I don’t care if the competition for minutes will be tight in the Celtics front court. I don’t care if the hair still looks ridiculous. Olynyk looked great in the FIBA tournament and solid in the preseason. It’s not a stretch for KO to add 5 ppg to his average when you consider his FT shooting dipped to 68% last year. He’s bigger, stronger and more confident.
18. Two ex-Celtic greats will retire
With nearly 40 years of combined NBA experience, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will both retire. Pierce’s pursuit of a championship landed him with Doc Rivers and the Clippers, while Kevin Garnett returned to Minnesota in preparation for a slide into ownership. While I hate the idea of never seeing them play basketball again, the sooner they retire, the sooner their numbers are hoisted into the Garden rafters.
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