I’ll be doing a weekly post on a collection of different notes that I don’t get a chance to write about. If there’s anything you would like me to discuss, hit me up on Twitter: @Geoff_Simpson4.
• Isaiah Thomas has been playing at an all-star level to start the season. His individual statistics have been great, and while he may not have the best net rating on the team (that belongs to Avery Bradley and Amir Johnson), he is, in the mind of most, the Celtics MVP.
While Thomas’ competition for an all-star spot in the east is nowhere as difficult as the west, the depth at the point guard position in the NBA will still make it difficult for Thomas to make the team. Kyle Lowry has been playing phenomenal basketball, and has been the best guard in the east so far this year. John Wall struggled early, but has come on as of late. Kemba Walker is having a breakout year on a team that has played good basketball up to this point. Jeff Teague, Reggie Jackson and Thomas round out the top guards in the east. That’s 6 guys for 3 spots, at most. Kyrie Irving will return soon and make a strong case for an all-star spot as well.
Thomas will have the chance to prove himself in an individual matchup against Reggie Jackson on Wednesday. The two players have similar roles, having to carry the offensive load for their teams. Their numbers through this point in the year are nearly identical.
Here’s how Thomas stacks up statistically against the rest of the top guards in the East. The image is from basketball-reference.com. You may have to click on the image to see it more clearly. For me, Lowry is the clear top point guard in the east so far this year. The next five are super close. Still a long way to go, but if I had to rank them now, I’d go:
1) Lowry
2) Wall
3) Thomas
4)Jackson
5) Teague
6) Walker
Keep in mind that the all-star voting process is usually a popularity contest. Guys who have narratives working in their favor tend to do well. Still, Thomas is deserving based on his play through this point in the season.
• One thing Thomas does well that he doesn’t get enough credit for is taking care of the basketball. Thomas’ true usage rate, created and defined by Nylon Calculus as the percentage of a team’s possessions ending in a shot, turnover or potential assist, is 47.8%. That ranks in the top ten of the league. Of the players in the top 10, including Jackson, Thomas’ turnover percentage (3.5%) is the lowest. He turns the ball over less than Chris Paul. That’s impressive.
• The one area Thomas has dropped off this year is getting to the free throw line. He is down to 5.6 free throw attempts per 36 minutes from 9 per 36 last year. A possible explanation for the drop off is Thomas’ increase in mid range jump shots. Instead of getting to the line, Thomas is taking more shots from 10-16 feet (3% of all shots last year to 12% this year). Bigs have been sagging off Thomas on pick and rolls in attempt to keep him in front, and Thomas has adjusted by taking, and making, more mid range shots. Thomas is shooting 53% from 10-16 feet, up from 36% last year. The mid range is an area Thomas has said he has worked on, and he is getting better looks.
Still, I would like to see Thomas get to the free throw line more and cut down on his mid range attempts, despite his increased efficiency in that area. Thomas shoots 88% from the line, meaning possessions ending in a pair of Isaiah free throws yields an expected value of 1.76 points per possession. Compare that to a possession ending in an Isaiah mid range jumper, which yields 1.06 points per possession. Thomas does not need to stop taking mid range jumpers, but I’d like to see his free throw rate increase.
• I hope Brad Stevens can continue to find minutes for James Young when RJ Hunter and Marcus Smart return. Young has made major strides on the defensive end of the floor and the more playing time he gets, the more comfortable he will be. It will be difficult to get him minutes, but if there is one area the Celtics lack depth, it’s on the wing. I’d prefer playing Young over David Lee, allowing Jae Crowder to play more 4, where he thrives. While Lee has been solid the past couple of games, he is the only regular with a negative net rating. Young is a part of the Celtics future, while Lee likely is not. As good as this team is now, it’s important to keep an eye on the future.
• Celtics ballhandlers are scoring just .76 points per possession on pick and rolls, good for 7th worst in the league. However, the team shoots 68% when they get a “paint touch,” defined by NBA.com as a touch that originates from a pass and reception within the paint. That’s third best in the league. The guards need to do a better job hitting the roll man off of pick and rolls and letting them make plays in the paint, whether that is finishing or kicking out for a 3.
• Since I wrote this article at the beginning of the season, the Celtics have gotten back to taking care of the basketball at an elite level. They currently rank 10th in turnover ratio (15.0) for the season and 2nd in their past ten games (13.5). The Celtics are 7-3 in that span, with two of those losses coming late against the Spurs and Warriors, the top two teams in the league. For a team that struggles to shoot the ball, ending possessions with shots rather than turnovers is essential. That sounds obvious, but it’s really a huge key for the Celtics offense. They simply do not have the fire power to be giving away possessions. While they struggled early on, the Celtics offense has quietly crept up to the middle of the pack . Cutting down on turnovers is the biggest reason why.
• Here’s the Brad Stevens play of the week, a quick flashback to the Spurs game on December 5:
https://youtu.be/HqBz4eMTikM
I know the Cs lost this game, but I thought this play design was incredible. The Celtics are down 6 with 1:40 to go. They’re in need of a quick basket, preferably a 3. Stevens manages to draw up a sideline out of bounds set that results in a wide open 3-point look for his best shooter. The play only takes 4 seconds, while burning the NBA’s top defender in the process.
Stevens has used this after time out play before, and it seems to have a 100% success rate. Avery Bradley comes off a down screen from Kelly Olynyk, who in turn gets a screen from Isaiah Thomas. The Spurs switch, leaving Patty Mills on Olynyk. Turner throws the over the top pass to Kelly, who is able to handle the ball and get it to Bradley despite a near steal from Tim Duncan.
The reason the play works so well is the pass over the top. Watch Kawhi Leonard. When Turner makes the pass to Olynyk, Leonard’s natural tendency is to turn his head to see the ball. That causes him to lose site of Bradley, who darts off a great screen from Amir Johnson for the wide open 3.
Great play call by Stevens. You will see this one again before the season is over.
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