For their first game of the 2016-17 NBA season, the Boston Celtics host the Brooklyn Nets. These two teams couldn’t have more different projections for this season. Boston is planning on challenging Cleveland and Toronto for the mantle of best team in the Eastern Conference. By season’s end, it hopes to be among the top two seeds. As for Brooklyn, it will likely be challenging for the highest amount of lottery ping pong balls that come along with the worst record in the sport. That doesn’t guarantee a Boston win in game one, but it comes pretty darn close.
1: A little something extra
On top of playing for a win here and wins this season, Boston has an extra rooting interest in Brooklyn’s season. Namely, every Brooklyn loss helps the Celtics just a bit more. That is because the Celts own the right to swap first-round picks with the Nets in the 2017 NBA Draft. This pick swap is one of the most valuable assets in the league because of where the Nets are projected to finish. Since every Brooklyn loss is all the more valuable for Boston, a head-to-head win is worth twice as much. While others teams may overlook Brooklyn, the Celtics will do no such thing.
2: They have the best player(s)
It helps that Boston will have the matchup’s best player regardless. Thomas is an All-Star-caliber guard who doubles as the only Celtic who can take over games and control the offense in crunch time. The ball will always be in his hands when he is on the court. And despite his size, Thomas is a prolific driver and finisher. Of all players under 6-4 last season, only Russell Westbrook made more field goals within five feet of the basket. Of players under 6-0, Thomas leads in pretty much everything because there are so few players at his size that can stick in the league, let alone excel.
There are some who would consider the Celtics shiny new acquisition – arguably the biggest pickup of the off season east of the Bay Area – Al Horford, a superior player to Thomas. He has a case, and because of his all-around game that includes great defense and passing, Horford is also a superior player to anyone on the Nets. Brooklyn’s best is Brook Lopez, also an All-Star-caliber player. Because of his position, he relies too heavily on his teammates. And his teammates are not very good. Lopez is also a center from a past generation. He doesn’t have three-point range; he cannot switch on screens; he doesn’t move very well because of an extensive injury history.
3: Defense wins games
If Brooklyn hopes to win, it won’t do it by being stingier than Boston. The Celtics are going to be one of the best defensive teams in the league despite not having a premiere shot-blocker. It’s rather amazing how good the team was last season with nothing in the way of a paint presence. Horford helps cover up some of that, but even he isn’t elite. What makes Boston so great defensively is its perimeter talent and rotation. Once Smart comes back, the Celtics will have as many as four guys who can guard and switch one through four (assuming rookie Jaylen Brown is playable on the other end).
4: Injuries suck (this is why they may NOT win)
One edge Brooklyn will have is in the health department. Randy Foye is the only Nets player expected to miss the game, whereas Boston will be without two main contributors: Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk. Smart is expected to be the team’s first sub and third guard. In small lineups, he will even play alongside Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. Olynyk was going to be the team’s main big opposite Al Horford. The absence of both players drastically limits head coach Brad Stevens’ flexibility in his rotation. The Celtics are essentially forced to play smaller without Olynyk but don’t have their best small-ball lineup intact with Smart on the bench.
The Nets have no hope of matching the type of pressure, and talent Boston brings to the opener, and they have little hope of escaping Boston with a victory in game one.
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