How to Figure out What Kind of Pitcher You Are

In discussions between fans, the subject of what kind of starting pitcher often comes up. For example, “he may be our fifth starter, but he’d be a #3 on a different team.” It’s also used in evaluating prospects. A minor leaguer might not be an ace, but he could help out as a back end of the rotation pitcher in the future.

These are all very general statements, however, with little insight given the lack of context. What I’d like to find out is, right now, who in baseball are the aces, the number twos and so on irrelevant of who else is on their team. Yes, Stephen Strasburg isn’t as good as Max Scherzer, so officially, he’s a #2 starter, but on 26 other teams he could be an ace. To break this down, I’ll use fangraphs FIP, innings per game and ERA to rank the top 150 MLB starters, then split them into groups. With this, we can look at how each real life rotation actually breaks down.

With this arbitrary positioning of there being exactly 30 aces, 30 #2 starters and down the line, the quality of the aces listed may not be quite as good as is generally accepted. Breaking down the MLB starters with at least 30 innings based on their numbers from 6/22, an ace genearlly averages at least 5.2 innings per start, has an ERA under 3.90 and (with the exception of two) an FIP below 3.90 as well. Number two starters generally average between five and 6.5 innings per start, have an FIP between 3.50 and 4.20 and an ERA between 3.50 and 5.00.

For the teams, their top five starters will be listed with their classification with the teams ranked in order of most elite rotation. If a team doesn’t have five pitchers within the top 150 with 40 innings, the remaining qualifying starters are considered 6th starters with pitchers having thrown under 40 innings being placed in the role where they would have fit otherwise.

Type Name Team GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP IP/S Status
1 Zack Godley Dbacks 8 50 7.9 2.9 0.5 2.34 3.17 6.3  
1 Robbie Ray Dbacks 14 87.2 11.7 4.0 1.0 2.87 3.42 6.2  
1 Zack Greinke Dbacks 15 97.1 10.3 1.8 1.3 3.14 3.30 6.5  
1 Taijuan Walker Dbacks 11 63 8.6 3.3 0.7 3.43 3.45 5.7  
4 Patrick Corbin Dbacks 14 78 7.7 2.7 1.7 5.19 4.84 5.6  
1 Alex Wood Dodgers 10 56.1 10.9 2.2 0.3 2.08 2.14 5.6  
1 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 15 103.1 10.0 1.5 1.5 2.61 3.54 6.9  
1 Brandon McCarthy Dodgers 12 69 7.2 2.4 0.5 2.87 3.16 5.8  
3 Kenta Maeda Dodgers 11 57.1 9.1 2.8 1.4 4.87 4.25 5.2  
4 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 11 58 8.7 2.8 1.9 4.66 5.03 5.3  
1 Carlos Carrasco Indians 14 87.1 9.2 2.3 0.9 2.99 3.36 6.2  
1 Corey Kluber Indians 10 65.1 11.0 2.3 1.0 3.58 2.90 6.5  
2 Mike Clevinger Indians 7 36.2 10.1 4.4 1.2 3.93 4.14 5.2  
3 Trevor Bauer Indians 14 74.2 10.7 3.6 1.5 5.54 4.08 5.3  
4 Danny Salazar Indians 10 52.1 12.6 4.8 1.9 5.50 4.79 5.2 DL
1 Max Scherzer Nationals 15 107.2 12.1 2.0 1.0 2.09 2.78 7.1  
1 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 14 90.2 10.3 2.5 0.9 3.28 3.02 6.4  
2 Gio Gonzalez Nationals 15 94.1 8.3 3.8 1.1 2.96 4.28 6.3  
3 Tanner Roark Nationals 15 86.2 7.2 3.0 1.1 4.88 4.33 5.7  
4 Joe Ross Nationals 9 49.2 8.5 2.0 2.0 5.98 4.84 5.5  
2 Jesse Hahn Athletics 11 59.2 7.7 3.5 0.2 3.62 2.90 5.4  
2 Sean Manaea Athletics 13 73.1 9.9 3.4 0.9 4.05 3.51 5.6  
2 Kendall Graveman Athletics 8 47 6.1 2.7 1.2 3.83 4.45 5.9 DL
3 Sonny Gray Athletics 10 57.2 9.1 3.3 0.9 4.84 3.62 5.7  
3 Andrew Triggs Athletics 12 65.1 6.9 2.6 1.2 4.27 4.45 5.4 DL
1 Ivan Nova Pirates 14 96 5.1 0.8 0.9 2.91 3.70 6.9  
1 Jameson Taillon Pirates 8 45.1 7.7 3.2 0.8 3.38 3.75 5.6  
3 Gerrit Cole Pirates 15 90.1 7.4 2.2 1.6 4.28 4.56 6.0  
3 Trevor Williams Pirates 9 46.2 6.0 1.9 1.0 5.01 4.09 5.1  
4 Chad Kuhl Pirates 14 64.1 7.4 3.8 1.0 5.46 4.30 4.6  
1 Luis Severino Yankees 13 81.1 10.0 2.4 1.0 2.99 3.24 6.2  
2 CC Sabathia Yankees 13 75.1 7.4 2.9 1.1 3.46 4.11 5.8 DL
2 Michael Pineda Yankees 14 83.1 9.1 2.1 1.5 3.56 4.05 5.9  
2 Jordan Montgomery Yankees 13 74.2 8.6 3.1 1.1 3.74 3.88 5.7  
5 Masahiro Tanaka Yankees 14 76.2 8.9 2.5 2.5 6.34 5.65 5.4

This first group has a few things in common. First, they nearly all have multiple aces or, if not (like the A’s) have multiple number two starters. With this, only the Yankees have a true number five and many teams are deeper than even those five with the Indians holding another #4 starter in Josh Tomlin and the A’s having a decent #5 in Jharel Cotton.

Type Name Team GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP IP/S Status
1 Dallas Keuchel Astros 11 75.2 8.2 2.1 0.7 1.67 3.09 6.8 DL
1 Lance McCullers Astros 13 76.2 10.5 2.7 0.7 2.58 2.92 5.9 DL
2 Charlie Morton Astros 10 57.2 10.1 3.6 1.1 4.06 3.96 5.7 DL
4 Joe Musgrove Astros 12 63.2 7.4 2.8 1.6 5.09 4.73 5.3  
5 Mike Fiers Astros 14 78 7.7 3.2 2.1 3.81 5.64 5.6  
1 Marcus Stroman Blue Jays 14 88.2 7.2 2.1 1.0 3.15 3.81 6.3  
2 J.A. Happ Blue Jays 7 38 10.4 1.7 1.9 4.26 4.10 5.4  
3 Marco Estrada Blue Jays 15 85 10.2 2.5 1.5 4.98 3.89 5.7  
3 Joe Biagini Blue Jays 9 44 7.4 2.3 0.8 4.91 3.43 4.9  
4 Francisco Liriano Blue Jays 11 50 9.4 5.4 1.3 5.76 4.79 4.5  
1 Carlos Martinez Cardinals 14 94.1 10.2 3.2 0.8 2.86 3.08 6.7  
1 Mike Leake Cardinals 14 92 6.5 1.8 0.9 3.03 3.65 6.6  
3 Michael Wacha Cardinals 13 68 8.3 3.6 1.1 4.76 4.04 5.2  
4 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 14 72 7.6 3.6 1.0 5.75 4.26 5.1  
4 Lance Lynn Cardinals 14 78.1 8.7 3.7 1.8 3.33 5.30 5.6  
1 Chris Sale Red Sox 15 107.1 12.2 1.6 0.7 2.85 1.97 7.1  
2 Eduardo Rodriguez Red Sox 10 60 9.5 3.2 1.4 3.60 4.13 6.0 DL
2 Drew Pomeranz Red Sox 14 73 10.1 3.1 1.4 4.07 3.87 5.2  
3 Rick Porcello Red Sox 15 92.2 8.3 1.8 1.6 5.05 4.16 6.1  
5 David Price Red Sox 5 28 7.7 4.5 2.3 5.14 6.49 5.6  
1 Jason Vargas Royals 14 87.1 7.0 2.1 0.6 2.27 3.22 6.2  
2 Danny Duffy Royals 11 68.2 7.1 3.3 0.5 3.54 3.54 6.2 DL
2 Nathan Karns Royals 8 44.2 9.9 2.2 1.8 3.43 4.43 5.5 DL
3 Jason Hammel Royals 14 78.1 6.8 2.8 1.2 4.83 4.43 5.6  
5 Ian Kennedy Royals 13 67.1 7.6 4.3 1.9 4.95 5.61 5.2

This second group has in common that they all have a rotation better than a typical 1-2-3-4-5 and two, the Cardinals and Astros, have multiple aces. Houston is in a rough spot with their top three pitchers on the DL and the Royals are in a similar spot down two of their top three.

Type Name Team GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP IP/S Status
1 Chase Anderson Brewers 14 83.1 8.3 2.7 0.8 2.92 3.38 5.9  
1 Jimmy Nelson Brewers 14 85 9.0 2.2 0.7 3.28 3.12 6.1  
3 Matt Garza Brewers 10 55 6.6 2.6 1.2 4.42 4.20 5.5  
4 Zach Davies Brewers 15 78.1 6.3 3.1 1.6 5.40 5.27 5.2  
5 Junior Guerra Brewers 7 37.2 6.5 5.3 1.7 3.11 6.02 5.3  
2 German Marquez Rockies 11 59.2 8.2 3.2 0.9 3.92 3.88 5.4  
2 Jeff Hoffman Rockies 6 34.1 9.4 2.1 0.5 4.19 2.58 5.7  
2 Kyle Freeland Rockies 14 81.2 5.5 3.5 0.9 3.42 4.61 5.8  
4 Tyler Chatwood Rockies 15 90.1 7.4 4.2 1.3 4.08 4.82 6.0  
4 Antonio Senzatela Rockies 14 83.1 6.5 2.6 1.4 4.10 4.73 5.9  
1 Michael Fulmer Tigers 13 86 6.6 2.1 0.4 3.45 3.11 6.6  
2 Daniel Norris Tigers 13 71.1 8.7 3.9 0.9 4.42 3.90 5.5  
2 Justin Verlander Tigers 15 87.2 8.8 4.4 1.0 4.52 4.19 5.8  
4 Matt Boyd Tigers 11 55.1 6.0 3.9 1.1 5.69 4.74 5.0  
5 Jordan Zimmermann Tigers 14 82.1 6.0 2.7 2.0 5.25 5.66 5.9  
2 Ty Blach Giants 11 71 4.2 1.7 0.9 4.18 4.03 6.5  
2 Jeff Samardzija Giants 15 98.2 10.2 1.2 1.5 4.74 3.48 6.5  
3 Johnny Cueto Giants 15 93.2 8.7 2.4 1.6 4.42 4.43 6.2  
4 Matt Cain Giants 14 74 5.6 3.9 1.1 4.99 4.77 5.3  
4 Matt Moore Giants 15 85 7.5 3.4 1.3 5.82 4.49 5.7  
1 Yu Darvish Rangers 15 94 9.5 3.5 1.2 3.35 4.13 6.3  
2 Andrew Cashner Rangers 12 69.1 4.3 4.0 0.7 3.50 4.54 5.8 DL
3 Martin Perez Rangers 14 76.1 6.8 3.5 1.1 4.72 4.32 5.4  
4 Cole Hamels Rangers 5 32.2 4.1 3.3 1.1 3.03 5.27 6.4 DL
5 Nick Martinez Rangers 10 57 4.6 2.2 2.1 4.58 5.87 5.7  
2 Jon Lester Cubs 15 89.1 9.4 2.9 1.1 3.83 3.66 5.9  
3 Kyle Hendricks Cubs 11 61.2 7.4 3.1 1.3 4.09 4.49 5.6 DL
3 Eddie Butler Cubs 8 38.2 5.8 4.9 0.7 4.19 4.47 4.8  
3 Jake Arrieta Cubs 14 77.2 10.0 2.9 1.4 4.64 4.08 5.5  
5 John Lackey Cubs 14 81.1 8.5 2.9 2.2 4.98 5.54 5.8  
1 Trevor Cahill Padres 7 41.1 11.1 3.7 0.7 3.27 2.98 5.9 DL
2 Clayton Richard Padres 15 94.1 6.4 2.4 1.0 4.20 3.98 6.3  
3 Luis Perdomo Padres 12 67 7.4 3.1 1.2 4.97 4.53 5.6  
4 Jhoulys Chacin Padres 15 83.2 7.8 3.1 1.4 4.95 4.61 5.5  
6 Jered Weaver Padres 9 42.1 4.9 2.6 3.4 7.44 8.09 4.7 DL

These are the most average MLB pitching staffs, but still only the Rangers have an actual pitcher of each designation (and two of those are injured and A.J. Griffin is considered a #6). With two threes and two fours, the Giants may be the most underrated staff, especially considering their true ace, Madison Bumgarner is on the DL.

Type Name Team GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP IP/S Status
1 Noah Syndergaard Mets 5 27.1 10.5 0.7 0.0 3.29 1.12 5.4 DL
2 Jacob deGrom Mets 14 89 10.7 3.6 1.3 3.94 3.89 6.4  
4 Zack Wheeler Mets 13 66.1 8.3 3.9 1.5 5.29 4.85 5.1 DL
5 Matt Harvey Mets 13 70.1 6.9 4.5 2.1 5.25 6.17 5.4 DL
5 Robert Gsellman Mets 13 69 6.4 3.3 1.7 6.26 5.46 5.3  
3 Nick Pivetta Phillies 8 42.1 9.8 4.0 1.5 4.46 4.52 5.3  
3 Aaron Nola Phillies 9 51 8.3 2.8 1.1 4.76 3.82 5.7  
3 Jerad Eickhoff Phillies 14 76.2 7.6 3.5 1.1 4.81 4.17 5.4 DL
4 Vince Velasquez Phillies 10 50 9.5 3.8 2.0 5.58 5.25 5.0 DL
5 Jeremy Hellickson Phillies 15 84 4.1 2.7 1.7 4.61 5.81 5.6  
1 Jose Berrios Twins 8 54 8.8 2.5 0.7 2.67 3.30 6.8  
2 Ervin Santana Twins 15 100 6.7 3.2 1.4 2.97 4.80 6.7  
5 Hector Santiago Twins 12 64 6.5 3.8 1.7 5.06 5.54 5.3 DL
5 Adalberto Mejia Twins 9 40.2 8.0 4.9 2.0 5.53 6.01 4.5  
5 Phil Hughes Twins 9 47 5.7 2.1 1.9 5.74 5.39 5.2 DL
2 Alex Meyer Angels 9 46 10.8 5.9 0.6 3.52 3.74 5.1  
3 JC Ramirez Angels 13 75.1 7.7 2.4 1.4 4.54 4.42 5.8  
4 Matt Shoemaker Angels 14 77.2 8.0 3.2 1.7 4.52 5.10 5.5 DL
5 Jesse Chavez Angels 14 80.2 6.6 2.7 1.9 4.57 5.37 5.7  
5 Ricky Nolasco Angels 15 84.1 7.6 2.7 2.5 5.23 5.95 5.6  
2 Dan Straily Marlins 15 84 9.2 2.9 1.1 3.43 3.74 5.6  
3 Edinson Volquez Marlins 14 77.1 8.4 5.1 0.8 4.19 4.27 5.5  
3 Wei-Yin Chen Marlins 5 27 6.7 3.0 1.0 4.33 4.20 5.4 DL
5 Jose Urena Marlins 9 49 6.1 3.9 1.3 4.04 5.42 5.4  
6 Tom Koehler Marlins 8 38.1 7.3 4.5 2.4 7.04 6.63 4.8

For the slightly below average rotations, things fall on the opposite side of the bell curve than those slightly better. Only the Twins and Mets have an ace and most have multiple 5’s or 6’s. In all, these rotations are pretty ugly, but things could be worse.

Type Name Team GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP IP/S Status
2 Jaime Garcia Braves 13 82.2 6.5 3.4 0.9 3.59 4.10 6.3  
3 Mike Foltynewicz Braves 13 72 6.9 2.9 1.4 4.13 4.67 5.5  
5 Bartolo Colon Braves 12 59 6.1 2.6 1.7 7.78 5.11 4.9 DL
5 Julio Teheran Braves 15 87 6.1 3.3 1.8 4.76 5.56 5.8  
5 R.A. Dickey Braves 14 84.1 5.6 3.7 1.6 4.91 5.70 6.0  
1 James Paxton Mariners 11 61 10.3 3.3 0.6 3.39 2.77 5.5  
4 Ariel Miranda Mariners 15 84.2 7.2 3.4 1.7 4.04 5.19 5.6  
5 Yovani Gallardo Mariners 14 75.2 6.8 3.8 1.3 6.30 4.82 5.4  
5 Sam Gaviglio Mariners 7 37.1 5.1 2.9 1.9 3.38 5.84 5.3  
5 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 6 31 4.7 3.5 2.0 4.35 6.39 5.2 DL
3 Mike Pelfrey White Sox 11 54.2 5.6 3.5 0.8 3.62 4.45 4.9  
3 Jose Quintana White Sox 14 81.2 8.7 3.5 1.3 5.07 4.35 5.8  
4 Miguel Gonzalez White Sox 13 78.2 5.2 3.0 1.5 5.49 5.16 6.0 DL
5 Derek Holland White Sox 14 76.1 7.6 3.8 1.9 4.48 5.59 5.4  
6 Dylan Covey White Sox 8 37.2 5.3 3.8 3.1 8.12 7.80 4.7 DL
4 Dylan Bundy Orioles 15 92 6.4 2.8 1.3 3.72 4.63 6.1  
4 Wade Miley Orioles 14 71.1 8.3 5.1 1.3 4.29 4.83 5.1  
5 Kevin Gausman Orioles 16 80.2 7.0 4.4 1.6 6.47 5.35 5.0  
6 Ubaldo Jimenez Orioles 9 46.2 6.4 5.0 2.5 6.94 7.07 5.1  
6 Chris Tillman Orioles 9 39.2 5.9 5.0 2.0 8.39 6.51 4.4  
3 Scott Feldman Reds 15 83.2 7.3 3.0 1.1 4.20 4.28 5.5  
4 Tim Adleman Reds 12 65 7.8 3.9 1.7 4.43 5.24 5.4  
6 Bronson Arroyo Reds 14 71 5.7 2.4 2.9 7.35 6.96 5.1 DL
6 Amir Garrett Reds 12 58.1 7.6 4.5 2.9 7.41 7.28 4.8  
6 Lisalverto Bonilla Reds 4 20.2 4.4 5.7 2.2 7.84 7.34 5.1

The final set of rotations is ugly. The Reds have three pitchers who aren’t within the top 150 in Major League Baseball while the Orioles have two. Each team has at least two #5 or #6 starters and only the Mariners have an ace. At that, even he’s borderline and only the Braves have a #2 starter.

Name GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA FIP xFIP WAR IP/S
Average #1 Starter 12.3 78.2 9.3 2.4 0.8 2.94 3.12 3.46 2.1 6.3
Average #2 Starter 12.1 71.0 8.3 3.1 1.1 3.82 3.95 4.17 1.2 5.8
Average #3 Starter 12.1 67.0 7.8 3.1 1.2 4.58 4.25 4.33 0.9 5.5
Average #4 Starter 12.5 67.2 7.7 3.5 1.5 4.91 4.90 4.68 0.5 5.4
Average #5 Starter 11.5 62.4 6.6 3.4 1.9 5.22 5.63 5.13 0.0 5.4

Since so many pitchers were not included in the gigantic list above, the convenient chart above can help you understand what kind of pitcher you are. Since this is only considering numbers from this season, it isn’t a permanent scale by any means, but for right now, if your best starter has an ERA and FIP above 3.50 and a K/9 below 9.0, he’s probably not the ace you want him to be.

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