Back in 2014, the Cleveland Indians signed their most dependable hitter to a four year deal with a one year option. At just $25M guaranteed, this was a steal and Michael Brantley responded with his best year yet. In 2014, he hit .327/.385/.506 with 20 home runs, 45 doubles and 23 steals. He went to his first All-Star game that year, won the Silver Slugger and finished third in MVP voting. As an encore, he hit another 45 doubles the next season and hit .310/.379/.480, finishing 28th in the MVP vote. It was almost like the Indians could see the future and they used that information to sign players like Brantley, Carlos Santana (2012), Jason Kipnis (2014), Corey Kluber (2015) and Carlos Santana (2015) to extremely cheap long term deals.
However, if the Indians could see the future in terms of talent panning out on the field, there’s one aspect of the game that no one can predict. Injuries.
Before getting into whether or not the Indians should use Brantley’s 2018 option ($11M or a $1M buyout), it’s important to note that he’s earned his money. For $25M over four years, the Indians received 474 hits, 112 doubles, 44 home runs, 240 RBI, 50 steals (only 3 times caught) with a .312/.374/.477. For an unfair and extreme comparison, the Tigers paid Miguel Cabrera $28M for 2017 alone and he hit .249/.329/.399 with only 117 hits, 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 60 RBI. Even with the power numbers, Brantley’s production per dollar rate is impressive.
The reason the idea of earning the money he has already been given needs to be brought up because of a few not quite recent examples. Both Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore were given gigantic contract extensions and had career ending injuries by the end. While these were the biggest Indians contract ever and the biggest given to a player so young at the time, both players far outplayed the dollar values of their deals before going down with injury, just as Brantley has. At the time, however, there was a stigma that they didn’t deserve their options used because they had already been paid just to “sit around” for at least a season.
With Brantley, we should start at an even slate. Let’s say he’s earned all the money he’s made so far and at least the $1M buyout for 2018, but will need to produce at least $10M in value in 2018 to be worth retaining at that price.
The good news is that Brantley’s shoulder did not bother him at all (as far as we know) in 2018. He started the season on time and played 90 games compared to just 11 last season, not missing time until he hurt his ankle somewhere around June 15th. What actually happened with the ankle after that is a bit of a mystery and the only ones who really know (likely Brantley, the team and his agent) are the only ones who are qualified to make this decision.
What we do know is that Brantley missed one game, then was placed on paternity list for four before heading straight to the DL for another seven. Once he returned, he hit .302/.354/.465 with seven doubles, four home runs, 23 runs scored, 24 RBI, 4 steals (never caught) in 34 games. He had five hits including a home run in his last four games before hitting the DL a second time, this time for a much longer period, lasting from August 9th through September 29th.
The ankle injury is the single most important part in the decision making for Brantley’s option. To pay a starting outfielder with the kind of ability that Brantley not only had in the past, but had through 90 games in 2017 $11M is really a paltry amount. Ian Desmond, in his first year as an outfielder and heading into his 30’s was given a five year, $70M deal last off-season. The 36 year old Jose Bautista was given $18.5 to hit .200 and help the Blue Jays front office save face after losing Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland. Carlos Beltran was given $16M to be a negative WAR DH for the Astros. A 40 year old who strikes out too much, can’t play the field and provides negative value at his only duty is worth $16M. With that being the going rate, the Indians shouldn’t just use Brantley’s option, but should give him a raise.
In general, ankle injuries should be easier to return from than shoulder injuries. The shoulder in incredibly complex and pain in one area could come from any number of actual problems. This was essentially the problem with Brantley as he ended up having surgery on his biceps that appears to have fixed the problem. With his ankle, there is hope that he can just rest, then rehab it and should be back in plenty of time for Spring Training next season. The real hope comes from the fact that he was running fine between DL stints. It’s possible he rushed back too quickly and pushed the joint before it was ready, but that shouldn’t be a problem now with five months of vacation before he needs to perform again.
All this, as well as the Indians love of veterans, particularly those who have been with the team for at least a little while, points to the Indians bringing back Brantley. What could be the final reason on the pro-side is the changing Indians roster. Carlos Santana has been a huge part of the Indians line-up since 2011, but the Indians now must plan for the contingency that he leaves in free agency. While resigning him has to be a top priority (and the subject of a different piece), bringing back Brantley is an easy way to guarantee a back-up plan.
While not ideal, Encarnacion can go back to his normal position of first base if necessary and Brantley could fill in as a part time DH, part time left fielder like Corey Dickerson did for the Rays this season. If he is up to the task, Brantley could move to first himself, a possibility that has been thrown around for years due to his poor range in left, but never merited serious consideration until now. There are other possibilities as well as Francisco Mejia will likely be on the team as well, giving the Indians three catchers. Further complicating things is Jason Kipnis in the outfield. However, with Mejia working out at third in the Arizona Fall League, the Indians could attempt to put the 2018 rookie at third and move Kipnis to left with Bradley Zimmer in center. This would free Brantley for full time DH/1B duties.
This is all speculation and a lot of different things could happen, creating slight or great changes in the prospective line-up. In none of them, however, is a better hitter than Brantley available for less than $10M. Because of this, the Indians need to keep their longest tenured player at least one more year even if his role needs to change a little.
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