The Real Deal Chisenhall

When talking about the Indians in any area, the one name that pops up more than any other is Lonnie Chisenhall. As a barely replacement level part time player who is far removed from being a top prospect and just as far from being a reliable veteran, this may seem unwarranted, but it really does make sense. There is little discussion needed about Francisco Lindor (outside of shouting out his accolades), Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley or 3/5ths of the starting rotation. These players are established in their roles and under contract for a long time, so there is little to discuss. The same is true of low value players. Unless they far exceed expectations, there isn’t much to talk about.

Chisenhall doesn’t fit either category. There is no denying he has value on a Major League roster, particularly now that he has shown that he can be a solid right fielder, leading the league with 5.7 defensive runs saved despite playing just over 320 innings in the out field in his career. In addition, he has been a pretty good offensive performer at times, particularly in 2014 when he was worth 11.4 more runs than the average hitter.

Despite this, he has also been the worst player in either capacity on the Indians at various points in his career. To start this season, he was arguably the worst hitter in a starting lineup that featured Michael Bourn and Jose Ramirez batting .175 and .200 respectively at the end of April. While he did improve massively at third base defensively this year (he had a better UZR than Giovanny Urshela and 3.8 defensive runs saved above average), in the past he was atrocious and always one of the worst fielders on the team. In 2014, his -10.5 runs saved nearly canceled out his offensive output and he allowed 8.8 more runs than average in the two years prior.

This all brings the question of who is the real Chisenhall. In just the past season in the minds of the fans he has went from starting third baseman to a possible trade candidate, possible DFA, the Indians’ next super utility man, the 2016 starting right fielder and now back to somewhere in the middle of all that. Part of this confusion stems from the average person not being patient enough to see what a player can actually provide, but in this case even more comes from Chisenhall’s erratic play.

Breaking down his season further, it doesn’t seem possible for someone to be this streaky:

Incredibly on nearly a biweekly basis Chisenhall’s BABIP has seen massive fluctuations culminating in the extreme changes seen in his average and other stats across the board. Excluding a significant difference during his final two weeks before demotion in June and his insane month of August, his average and BABIP have been almost identical all year. This is also very similar to his 2014 campaign and while some say that streakiness is not a repeatable trait, Chisenhall is trying to break the mold.

While not directly aligned with the first chart, the above does shed some light on the issue. While it would be simple to chalk the odd stretches up to luck and be done with it, no one on the planet is lucky for two weeks, then unlucky the next to this degree. Another big aspect of BABIP fluctuation is the type of balls hit. While there wasn’t much difference in his amount of hard balls compared to soft over the season, there has been a huge variation in his line drive rate.

While his .400+ average in August was certainly aided by a little luck, the fact that he hit 27% of his balls in play on the line likely made a huge difference as well. When he wasn’t hitting line drives, he was hitting ground balls and that was a good thing as well considering the unlikeliness of a Chisenhall fly ball leaving the yard. The same is true throughout the year including his decent stretches in June before his demotion and in the latter half of April compared to May. When Lonnie hits line drives and ground balls instead of pop flies, he is much more successful.

The good thing about this is it should be fixable. The type of ball hit is determined by the approach at the plate; the angle and timing of the swing, not luck. You can’t fix luck, you can only wait it out. You can possibly fix losing focus and having a poor approach at the plate every two weeks. Maintaining consistency is certainly something Lonnie has worked on his whole career and it is possible that his work in AAA was why he was able to sustain success for an entire month after rejoining the team instead of his normal two weeks.

This year, Chisenhall has been worth 1.8 WAR according to FanGraphs thanks to his offense taking away from his defense, the opposite of his 2014 season, but the same ultimate outcome. Among right fielders, there have been 21 players worth more than Chisenhall making him just barely worth being a starter for a team not lucky enough to have one of the top 21 (the Indians are not that lucky). If he could possibly correct whatever is going wrong in his swing at regular intervals and maintain his improved defense (only time will tell this) he could easily double that WAR and be one of the most productive outfielders in the league.

And thus continues the dilemma of Lonnie Chisenhall. He has the potential to be a very good hitter and fielder. He also has the potential to be the worst player on any baseball field any particular day. The Indians will have to make a tough decision this off-season, whether they want to go for broke in finding a new right fielder or trust the job to Chisenhall and hope he can reduce his periods of failure. One of the answers could be a promotion of AAA hitting coach Rouglas Odor to the Major League club, but in the end, the answer lies within Lonnie himself. He will almost certainly be on the roster in some capacity in 2016. If he proves that he can be the player he has shown at times, he will certainly be able to play his way onto the field.