Where game seven can go

This is a hell of a lot farther than anyone expected the Sabres to go. So many have used the phrase, “playing with house money.” I agree with those people.

Now the Sabres have run the defending Eastern Conference Champions to the edge of elimination. The Sabres haven’t looked pretty doing it and they lost a golden opportunity to get this into the barn at home in game six. No matter, they have one more shot. They have an extra shot to achieve a bit of greatness.

There is a better than good chance that the Sabres lose in game seven. I don’t mean to be pessimistic, rather somewhat realistic. On paper the Flyers are a much better team, except in goal. Game six seemed to be the game where the Flyers talent caught up to the Sabres lacking. What makes me think this is that Ryan Miller was quite good on Sunday and allowed five goals. I can’t saddle blame on any of the five goals squarely on Miller’s shoulders. Another glaring issue is where and how goals are being scored. Buffalo has scored quite a few weak goals that needed to be stopped. Rather, the Flyers have had a handful of snipes and fairly strong hockey plays that have resulted in putting the biscuit in the basket.

That being said, game seven could still be very interesting. Philly rolls back home with a whole bunch of momentum and a clear advantage in puck possession and quality chances. They have carried much of play, especially when it has mattered. They have erased big leads and their big guns have found numerous chances and have capitalized on them too. All of this has been achieved without a strong power play and quality goaltending. In fact, the goaltending is probably the only reason the Flyers won’t beat the Sabres.

As for the Sabres, they seem to be running out of gas. Ryan Miller has been great. He had a couple tough games in games two and three but he is one of the main reasons this team has pushed the Flyers to the brink. Thomas Vanek has been very good, despite is +/- rating and the Sabres have gotten some pretty good play from youngsters like Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis and Nathan Gerbe. The power play has been decent, much better than the o-fer debacle from 2010. As I mentioned before, it seems as if the talent match up has begun to catch up between the two teams.

Here is where I think the difference will be. The Sabres have struggled to hold leads. Even the two 1-0 wins had their fair share of treacherous moments when Philly threatened. The two occasions in which Buffalo surrendered two (or more) goal advantages showed that they continue to have trouble playing with the lead. This is where I feel the Philly forward depth has worn on the Sabres’ inexperienced defense. It seems as if the Sabres are falling victim to the big skilled Flyers forwards. I would say it is safe to assume that Buffalo’s struggles to clear the zone effectively and play well in their end may be due to the mismatch on that end.

At the end of the day it will come down to which team executes better. If Buffalo is capable of buckling down defensively and they limit the Flyers’ chances, there is a good chance the Sabres will advance. If the Flyers continue their ferocious forechecking and establish themselves in the Buffalo zone time after time, they will be moving on to round two. You may say the x-factor is goaltending, but I don’t see it that way. I feel that this game will be won or lost by the five players in front of the blue paint.

Now I just have to hope the Sabres can prove me wrong.