Sabres Stat Pack: Goal scoring becoming a cause for concern?

The Sabres are in the midst of a 15-game stretch that sees them play 11 contests at First Niagara Center. It is a stretch of games that some may say could define the season, whether that is true or not remains to be seen.

The run began with a letdown against New Jersey on November 16. There are six games left in the “homestand” – so far the Sabres have only won one home contest. They won’t start winning if they don’t start scoring. Or defending, for that matter.

The Sabres offensive woes have been far more pronounced that the struggles they have had defensively this season. There have certainly been patches in which Buffalo has managed to look like mites in their own zone, but it has been on offense where many issues remain.

Lindy Ruff has shuffled his lines more than a blackjack deck this season and it seems to be catching up to him. Thomas Vanek and Jason Pominville have each slowed the torrid pace with which they began the season. Luke Adam has managed to find the net again after a dry spell, but there is little support beyond those three players. Adam, Pominville and Vanek have accounted for 29 of the 66 (43%) of the Sabres’ goals this season. The other 37 have been scored by 17 other players.

Lindy Ruff is wasting Vanek and Pominville with Jochen Hecht. Hecht is a quality center/wing who can contribute offensively while providing the most return in a defensive role. However, Ruff’s apparent love affair with the German has placed Hecht on a scoring line year after year. It is a tired game that jumped the shark along with “putting on a show for the home fans” and expecting Ryan Miller to be Dominik Hasek.

Obviously Ruff’s goal is to even out the scoring across his other three lines. However, he has only managed to snuff out the rest of his team’s offense. After scoring 29 goals in October, the Sabres scored only eight more in four more games in November. Buffalo averaged 2.9 goals/game in October (3.2 if you take away the shutout in Tampa) but only averaged 2.6 goals/game in November.

Ruff needs to put Adam back between Vanek and Pominville. Even if Adam was merely a passenger on that freight train, they got the job done. Adam’s numbers reflected it, as did Vanek’s and Pominville’s. It would also be wise to give more ice to his other offensive weapons. Derek Roy, Ville Leino, Tyler Ennis and Drew Stafford need ice time. Dominic Moore was a trade deadline commodity in 2008 because he accumulated a ton of points playing a ton of minutes for Toronto. The same needs to be done with Buffalo’s other scorers. Additionally, Hecht should be placed on a line with some strong two-way players where his offensive skills can be utilized, but where he won’t choke the production of two juggernauts. The Hecht from 06-07 is long gone, give him two responsible wingers and let those three defend while providing supplementary offense.

It is easy to look on from the periphery and say what is being done wrong. But it is clear that something needs to shock the offensive life back into this club. They had a good thing going to start the season, use that as a foundation and build from it.

Here are a few more stats regarding the Sabres scoring this season:

• Buffalo scored 29 goals (2.9 goals/game) and allowed 22 (2.2 GAA) in October. Buffalo allowed two goals or fewer in six of their ten contests that month. The Sabres scored three or more goals in eight of their ten games and scored four or more goals on three occasions.
• In November the Sabres scored 37 goals (2.64 goals/game) and allowed 40 (2.85 GAA) in 14 games played. Buffalo only scored five or more goals in three games while being held to two or fewer in nine of their fourteen contests.
• Buffalo has scored four or more goals in six games this season; they have been held to two goals or fewer in 11 of 24 games.
• The Sabres have allowed two goals or fewer in 13 games this season but have yielded at least four on eight separate occasions.
• Buffalo has outscored their opponent 41-38 at home while being outscored 17-21 on the road. Of their 21 goals against on the road, 11 came in two games (vs. Boston & Columbus). The Sabres have allowed only ten goals in their other seven road games, good for a 1.42 team GAA.
• The Sabres score and average of 3.15 goals/game at home and only 1.89 goals/game on the road. However, they have a 2.92 team GAA at home and a 2.33 team GAA on the road (1.42 based on the above stat line). Seems right for a team that is 5-7-1 at home, 6-3-0 on the road (2-0-0 in Europe).
• The Sabres have allowed three or more goals at home on eight different occasions; they have scored four or more goals at home only four times in thirteen contests.
• Buffalo has yet to score more than three goals on the road.
• Buffalo’s official goal differential is +4, but it is really +3. The Sabres have two shootout winning goals and one against that are counted as official goals by the league. Buffalo has scored 66 goals on the season while allowing 63.