Is Tim Duncan All-Star Worthy?

There are certain things we take as a given in life – death, taxes, Tim Duncan playing in the NBA All-Star Game.  But, sometimes, not everything we assume as a certainty turns out to be the case (and, no, we don’t have a magical elixir that will let you cheat death, sorry.) – Tim Duncan is not guaranteed an All-Star spot this season.  What’s more unfathomable – that Duncan has never played an NBA season without being an All-Star, or that he might not make the All-Star team this year?

Duncan making the All-Star team has been a moot point these past 12 seasons – the only year he hasn’t been voted in as a Western Conference All-Star starter was his rookie season.  But this year The Big Fundamental is a distant fifth in voting and looks like a long shot to get an automatic invite to Los Angeles.  Add in the fact the Duncan is having a down year, statistically, and we can, for the first time, ask the question “Is Tim Duncan All-Star Worthy?”

While pretty much all of Timmy’s numbers are at career-lows, he still is having a very good year, posting a statline of 13.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3.0 apg and 2.0 bpg.  And while his Win Shares/48 minutes is also at a career-low of .175, it is still well above the league average of .100.  You can chalk up a lot of the dip in his numbers to the Spurs not needing him to do it all anymore – he’s playing the least amount of minutes and taking the lowest amount of shots in his career.  Yet, and perhaps most importantly, he’s helped led the Spurs (surprisingly) to the best record in the League. 

However, every year there are numerous players with legit beefs at being omitted from the All-Star Game roster – but, hey, there are only so many open roster spots each season.  In the case of Duncan, normally six or seven post players (power forwards and centers) end up being selected to compete in the game.  With two small forwards, Kevin Durant and Carmello Anthony, looking like they are going to be the starting forwards for the West this year, that could dip the number of post players to six.  However, Yao Ming is blowing away the field in the voting for the center position, so he’ll take a spot.  But, with him injured he’ll have to be replaced with (probably) another post player.  So who will these six of seven big men be?

First, the sure things.  Yao (yuck), Pau Gasol and Dirk Nowitzki are sure to take spots.  After that, it looks to be a free-for-all for the last three or four roster spots.  You’d hope that youngsters Kevin Love and Blake Griffin get rewarded for their phenomenal success thus far, but that is far from a given considering they are young and play for bad teams.  The same (except for the young part) can be said about Luis Scola and Zach Randolph – they are putting up big numbers, albeit for under-.500 teams.  LaMarcus Aldridge has been keeping Portland afloat in the the playoff hunt despite the team’s plethora of injuries.  Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson have gelled for the Jazz, providing Utah with a two-headed post monster.  Lamar Odom is having his best year as a pro, plus he plays for the defending champion Lakers, so many feel he will get his first All-Star invite this season.  And, finally, the Hornets have enjoyed a resurgence this season, with All-Star power forward David West posting his normal solid numbers.

So where does this leave Tim Duncan?  Probably battling with nine other players for three or four roster spots.  But Spurs fans should be able to rest easy – Duncan will probably make the team.  He is still one of the League’s best defenders (not to mention players) playing on the League’s best team.  This year should make it a perfect 13 for 13 for Duncan being selected for the All-Star Game.