(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)
About a month ago, I had an interesting theory about the 2013-14 college basketball season. It looked as if star power was not enough to push teams to wins. Teams who had the supposed best players – think Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Duke – were not winning consistently. Some of these teams have righted the ship in the first month of conference play (somewhat because some of the Tier 1 conferences are fairly shallow). On the other side of the fence are the best teams in college basketball, such as Arizona, Syracuse, Florida, and even Wichita State. These teams have plenty of very good players, but NBA GMs will not be busting down doors to select any of these players at the top of the lottery (which may be a mistake in the long run, but that is neither here nor there). Has the one-and-done system finally caused college basketball to go beyond mere talent to lean toward teamwork? Will the teams that were rated highly in the preseason come back and show that talent will win out?
As reader(s) of this space know, I like to write about Kentucky. Since John Calipari became the Wildcat coach five years ago, no one has been able to attract basketball talent like Kentucky. It seems as if more players have left after one year than have stayed at Lexington for the usual four. It was assumed that this year’s all-star squad would emulate the squad two years ago. Based on the Sporting News college basketball preview magazine, the Wildcats have five of the top 10 freshmen. That’s just silly, but watching Kentucky play does not cause many giggles. In past years, I was amazed that Calipari was able to get his super talented players to play as a team. This year’s squad plays like discrete individuals. In half court sets, it is not hard to guess which player is going to take a shot and no one on the team averages more than 3.5 assists. The Harrisons are both excellent at attacking the basket, but I have yet to see either Aaron or Andrew penetrate and dish to an open man. Julius Randle is super talented, but he also looks like a black hole in which passing is the last option. They can beat teams on talent alone, but I don’t see them making a long run in the tournament unless the team changes focus (which seems unlikely).
Kansas and Duke have been playing better after some rough games. With the development of Joel Embiid, the Jayhawks are pretty scary on offense. Andrew Wiggins has had some nice games and Perry Ellis has been the Carlos Boozer of the team. The Big 12 regular season title seems like Kansas’ birthright. Despite their loss to Texas last weekend, the Jayhawks should win the conference again and could compete for a one-seed with a conference tournament championship. I still worry that they don’t have those upperclassmen wings that seem to bubble up through the Jayhawk system to make big shots. After an early 2014 slump, Jabari Parker has roared back to life for the Blue Devils. I still think he is the best player in this year’s draft class because of the offensive polish on his game. Duke’s bugaboo has been opposing interior players, but Parker along with Amile Jefferson have been able to hold the fort. As good as he is, Parker may be asked to do too much for Duke to have long range success.
Oklahoma State had a lot of early season praise, including from me when they blew out Memphis. Things have not gone quite as planned for Marcus Smart and friends. I didn’t really understand why Smart returned to Stillwater and I don’t think his overreaction to the idiot fan on Saturday is all that bad. Smart was suspended for three games for his actions. However, anyone who thinks Smart has developed his game more as a Cowboy than he would have in the NBA is not being honest. Statistically, the 6-4 point guard is the same player he was last year. Maybe he’ll have more success in March and be able to head to the pros after this season.
When I thought about my earlier thesis, I had teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State in mind. Both Big 10 schools have struggled. The Buckeyes do not have a lead scorer. Wisconsin (like Creighton) relies too much on 3-pointers. The teams that have come to forefront each have significant weaknesses. Arizona was not deep before Brandon Ashley went down for the season with a foot injury. The Wildcats are basically six players deep unless other players show they can handle some minutes. Wichita State is undefeated, but has not played anyone of note. Florida and Syracuse are the best teams in the country, but neither has a true star to rely on. This may be to their benefit. I am not buying freshman Tyler Ennis as a star. He is a nice player on an undefeated team, but he gets the benefit of playing with C.J. Fair.
What all of this information boils down to is a very intriguing NCAA tournament. There will be no clear favorite as we head into March Madness and it seems unlikely that any team is going to put together a Louisville-style run to the championship. We are just going to have to stay tuned and see how things fall together.
Perry Missner is a college basketball enthusiast who writes for RotoWire along with several other outlets. He welcomes your comments on Twitter at @PerryMissner or via email at [email protected]
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
