2016 Pittsburgh Pirates Series Preview – Series 1

The beautiful grind that is the Major League Baseball season begins today.

At 1:05 PM EST at PNC Park, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Francisco Liriano will throw the very first pitch of the 2016 major league season. It’s hard to imagine a more intriguing match-up out of the gate for the club in facing the St. Louis Cardinals. The Pirates won 98 games last year, and forced the Cardinals to win 100 to take the NL Central crown. Although a mere 1.8 percent of the season will have been played by the time the series is finished, the club would do well to treat this as an early test.

Pitching Probables

Many of the best storylines for this series can be found in the pitching matchups.  Liriano will be making his third consecutive Opening Day start for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a feat not seen since Doug Drabek had the honors in the early 1990s. He will oppose Adam Wainwright, who will make his first start since April 25th of last year. Having effectively missed the entire 2015 season due to an Achilles injury (save for several late-season relief appearances), Wainwright had a very benign spring free of any lingering effects.

The second game in the series features 17-game winner Michael Wacha who faces off against Jon Niese, who will make his first start for the Pirates. Wacha stepped forward in a magnificent manner last season to fill the void created by Wainwright’s injury. Niese is a left-hander known for a great ground-ball rate, yet struggled to keep the pitch down during Grapefruit League play. With the inherent advantage for left-handed pitchers in PNC Park, Niese may have to only be average until his stuff comes around.

The third game in the series will feature a debut for each team, with Mike Leake going for the Cardinals while Juan Nicasio makes his unexpected debut as a starting pitcher. The club has caught lightning in a bottle with Nicasio, and the team undoubtedly hopes that lightning can curtail noted Pirate-killer Leake, who is 8-3 with a career 3.01 ERA against the team.

Pirates hitters versus Cardinals starters

Wainright

Wacha

Leake

In facing three right handers to start the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates will likely be able to keep their preferred lineup versus RHP intact. This will also serve as the debut for the team’s new on-base centric approach. John Jaso will presumably have his first truly meaningful at-bats as the Pirates’ lead-off hitter. His ability to draw walks at the top of the order could tangentially give us our first glimpse at how Andrew McCutchen might fare in the second spot in the order, where he will presumably hit after spending the majority of his time in Bradenton in that slot.

Behind McCutchen, it will be curious to see how manager Clint Hurdle will construct his lineup. There are viable options at nearly every batting position, and the only certainty is that David Freese will man third base in place of Jung Ho Kang. The Cardinals may have dodged a bullet in not having to face Kang, who slashed .347/.396/.612 against current Cardinals pitchers in 2015.

Cardinals Hitter to avoid

The Pirates would do well to avoid up-and-coming outfielder Randal Grichuk. Though his run production versus the Pirates was middling in 2015, with just four RBI, his slash was solid and he enters 2016 with the confidence of a stellar debut campaign in his back pocket.

Here now are Grichuk’s career numbers against current Pirates pitchers.

Final Thoughts

The pitching edge in this opening series is clearly tilted towards the Cardinals. In terms of run-production, the Pirates hit the opener with the wind at their backs. A full spring training session with the team’s new approach has bred confidence and trust, and without having to face a left-handed starter, the club can trot out its preferred lineup. Should the teams get to each other’s bullpens, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have the edge, though it will be interesting to see how Hurdle sets up the dominoes in a heavily reconstructed relief corps.

Featured image photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP