After suffering through their first letdown of the 2016 season in a series loss to the Reds, The Pittsburgh Pirates look to rebound in a four game home-at-home series versus the Detroit Tigers.
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped an annoying series against the Cincinnati Reds, but baseball does not give you much time to mourn losses, as the Pirates turn around quickly to play a four game home and home series vs. the Detroit Tigers.
The Pirates and Tigers are fairly familiar with each other as they are designated yearly inter-league rivals. So this series is nothing new for the Bucs.
The pitching match-ups are fairly balanced as the Pirates are sending both of their aces, Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano against the Tigers and Detroit is countering by sending their top two pitchers, Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmerman.
The key for both teams this series will be how the back of the rotation pitchers do as the Pirates open the series with Jon Niese taking the mound and the series closes with Mike Pelfrey pitching for the Tigers. Baseball is tough to predict in a single game or even single series basis, but on paper, I think the pitching match-ups are mostly a push in the series.
Still baseball is a game of match-ups so lets see how the Pirates stack up against the Tigers’ pitching staff for the series.
Pitching Probables:
Pirates hitters versus Justin Verlander:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | .200 | .350 | .333 | .683 |
| Matthew Joyce | 19 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | .353 | .421 | .765 | 1.186 |
| John Jaso | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .125 | .176 | .125 | .301 |
| Josh Harrison | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .286 | .286 | .571 | .857 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .333 | .500 |
| Mike Morse | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Chris Stewart | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .733 |
| Gregory Polanco | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .333 | .733 |
| Starling Marte | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .750 | 1.333 | 2.083 |
| Jordy Mercer | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .500 | .667 | 1.167 |
| David Freese | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 |
| Total | 109 | 95 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 24 | .253 | .321 | .411 | .732 |
The Pirates have traditionally hit Verlander relatively well. Outside of his almost n0-hitter vs. the Bucs in 2011, the Pirates have slashed .253/.321/.411/.732 against the former Cy Young Award winner.
The player to watch in this match-up is likely Matt Joyce. He has mashed Verlander in his career. In 17 at-bats, Joyce is hitting .353/.421/.765/1.186 with two home runs and five RBI. Not the largest sample size, but generally in matchup situations, 15+ at-bats is a pretty solid indicator of future success. So it would not be surprising if Joyce plays a big role in game one of the series.
One player to not expect much from vs. Verlander is John Jaso. Jaso has really struggled something fierce against him, hitting a very poor .125/.176/.125/.301. If he cannot get on-base at the top of the order, the Pirates’ offense could struggle in game one of the series.
Pirates hitters versus Anibal Sanchez:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Jaso | 21 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | .063 | .286 | .063 | .348 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 19 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | .250 | .263 | .250 | .513 |
| Matthew Joyce | 18 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | .278 | .278 | .722 | 1.000 |
| Mike Morse | 18 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | .222 | .222 | .278 | .500 |
| David Freese | 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .375 | .444 | .625 | 1.069 |
| Jordy Mercer | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .375 | .375 | .500 | .875 |
| Starling Marte | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .143 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .167 | .333 |
| Josh Harrison | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .833 | 1.167 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Gregory Polanco | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Total | 134 | 121 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 40 | .223 | .267 | .355 | .623 |
The Pirates do not hit Anibal Sanchez well at all. The team slashes a combined .223/.267/.355/.623 against the right hander. Game two could definitely present a problem for the Buccos, unless something changes in their approach when facing Sanchez.
David Freese could be a hitter to watch in this game as he has hit Sanchez very well in his career. In 10 at-bat vs. Sanchez, Freese has hit .375/.444/.625/1.069. Freese struggled mightily in the Cincinnati Reds series, so this matchup could be just what the doctor ordered to get the former World Series MVP going again.
Starling Marte is a player that may struggle in game two of the series as he has really been perplexed by Sanchez in his career. Marte has a .143/.143/.143/.286 batting line, albeit in only seven at-bats vs. Sanchez. Still, it is something to pay attention to in game two.
Pirates hitters versus Jordan Zimmerman:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Freese | 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .429 | .500 | 1.143 | 1.643 |
| Josh Harrison | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | 1.333 | 1.667 |
| Mike Morse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Starling Marte | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Chris Stewart | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 39 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 10 | .189 | .231 | .486 | .717 |
The Pirates as a team do not have many at-bats vs. Zimmerman, but in those limited opportunities, the team has struggled. They have hit a combined .189/.231/.486/.717 against the former National in only 39 combined at-bats.
Despite the relative lack of success, Andrew McCutchen is a player that has done well against Zimmerman. In six career at-bats, McCutchen has two home runs and a .333/.333/1.333/1.667 batting line. They say the Pirates go as McCutchen goes and in this game it would absolutely ring true.
The Pirates do not have many at-bats against Zimmerman, but one player that has struggled mightily in the small sample size is Michael Morse. He’s hitless in six at-bats and has struck out in four of them. So if Morse does play in this game, I would not expect much from the big right hander.
Pirates hitters versus Mike Pelfrey:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 20 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | .353 | .450 | .353 | .803 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .231 | .286 | .231 | .516 |
| Matthew Joyce | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .286 | .333 | .429 | .762 |
| David Freese | 8 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .375 | .429 | .804 |
| Mike Morse | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Josh Harrison | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .667 | .667 | 1.333 |
| Starling Marte | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 1.000 |
| Gregory Polanco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Jordy Mercer | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Sean Rodriguez | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Total | 80 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 14 | .288 | .338 | .329 | .666 |
The Pirates have hit Pelfrey fairly well, but have managed almost no power off of the 6’7 right hander. The team hits .288/.338/.329/.666 with zero home runs and only three doubles. So for the Pirates to be successful they’ll have to bunch together hits and have men on-base. Which as you know is the official team concept of the 2016 Pirates.
Once again Andrew McCutchen could play a big role in the ballgame as he mashes Pelfrey in his career. Despite the lack of power, McCutchen has hit Pelfrey to the tune of .353/.450/.353/.803 in 20 career plate appearances. He has also walked twice and been hit by a pitch.
Francisco Cervelli has the second most plate appearances against Pelfrey and has not done much against him. Pelfrey holds the Pirates’ catcher to a batting line of .231/.286/.231/.516 with four strikeouts and no walks. Cervelli could definitely struggle against Pelfrey unless he’s adjusted his approach.
Tigers hitter to avoid: Justin Upton:
The Tigers have one of the most fearsome lineups in all of baseball, so picking ONE player to avoid is difficult, but for me it’s the newest Tiger that the Pirates need to watch out for. Justin Upton has completely dominated the Pirates in his career. Slashing .339/.423/.580/1.003 with six home runs and 16 RBI in 130 plate appearances. So this is no small sample size.
Juan Nicasio in particular has been haunted by Upton and needs to be extra careful against him in this series. Upton has reached base nine times in 15 at-bats against Nicasio and has hit .455/.600/.727/1.327 off of the Pirates’ spring training phenom. So for Nicasio to be successful against the Tigers, he must limit the damage Upton is capable of doing.
Despite hitting the Pirates fairly well, one pitcher that Upton has struggled against in his career is Francisco Liriano. Frankie has limited Upton to a .077/.200/.308/.508 slash line, so Liriano could be the one Pirates’ pitcher to keep Upton under control during the course of this series.
The Pirates and Tigers are designated inter-league rivals, so this series should hate plenty of hatred! Except the two teams seem to have zero ill will and despite playing every year now, it’s mostly just two solid baseball teams playing a series.
I think the series should be fairly even so I would not be surprised if the teams split the four games, with each winning one at home and one on the road.
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