Pittsburgh Pirates Pitchers Finding Battling Back to be Difficult

The Pittsburgh Pirates have looked very strong at points in the 2016 season, mostly through a revamped run-creation philosophy.

However, the biggest strength thought to be returning from a 2015 club that won 98 games has not materialized as of yet.

The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has looked adequate at times and wretched at others. In searching for a common denominator, something to explain away the drop from the second-ranked ERA (3.21) in all of baseball in 2015 to the 19th-ranked unit with a 4.17 ERA, it became clear that this iteration of the Pirates pitching staff has not shown a great deal of ability to bounce back.

Whether it be game-by-game, inning-by-inning or, as we’ll talk about today, pitch-by-pitch, the Bucs’ hurlers are struggling to get into favorable counts.

Today we focus on what happens after a 1-0 count. We don’t need a study to tell us that a 1-0 count is not as good for pitchers as a 0-1 count, but falling behind in counts taken on its own merit is not a solid metric on which to judge a pitcher’s overall ability. One of the all time greats, Greg Maddux, was fond of a 1-1 count, and others throughout their careers have excelled at handling less-than-ideal scenarios.

When we compare the overall performance of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff after a 1-0 count – as well as some individual performances – to last year, some startling trends emerge.

In 2015, Pirates pitchers – bullpen and starters –  saw 38 percent of all plate appearances against them go to a 1-0 count. In 2016, that figure so far has increased to 40 percent. An increase of just two percent may not mean much to the naked eye, but the true telltale sign of how this is affecting the club comes from looking at how this translates to an increased number of baserunners.

In 2015 the Pirates put their share of runners on base but were able to end the year with a decent enough SO/W ratio, considering that a 1-0 count is conducive to a walk by its nature. This 2016 iteration shows a near one-to-one ratio of walks to strikeouts, and a near 30 percent increase on on base percentage.

Just as the new Pittsburgh Pirates offense is centered around getting runners on base, their pitching counterparts are being victimized by it. The change from year to year is hard to wrap one’s head around. The pitchers are allowing more runners on, rate-wise, through the early stages of 2016, but is it really hurting them?

The answer is yes, but not in the way that many would think. With a very similar triple-slash from year-to-year, the difference maker is easily seen. The strikeout-to-walk ratio was nearly a full strikeout higher in 2015. We laud the new run-creation approach as being a ‘chain of hitters.’ It is entirely possible that that teams are adopting a similar approach against Pirates pitching.

All of this data has shown us that the Pirates as a team are getting into holes early in counts at a much greater clip over last year. The 2015 staff was able to minimize that damage through good ground ball rates and a good strikeout-to-walk ratio with men on base. The 2016 counterpart has not been able to battle back after a 1-0 count, and their control worsens with men on base.

Individually, the Pirates pitching staff has shown to be willing victims of the 1-0 count.

In looking specifically at walks per nine innings after a 1-0 count, we see an increase at a team level, and some startling individual increases. In comparing results from a full season against just a portion, rate stats such as BB/9 are better indicators of regression or improvement.

Tony Watson and Mark Melancon have the highest increase in this metric, and in the case of Watson, his might be the most impactful. Watson’s season has seen its share of clunky appearances, and even the innings in which he would escape without letting a run scratch its way across were sometimes marred by walks and overall inefficiency that has become very foreign to Watson’s tenure as a Pirate. Melancon’s increase in this area is misleading, as he has the detriment of several one inning appearances in his 2016 game logs.

Across the board, all Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are not performing at their peak in terms of having a favorable outcome after an unfavorable start to an at-bat. The organization historically values a three-pitch result, and would much rather put stock in a 1-2 or even 2-1 count. For a team that has been waylaid by some poor pitching performances, the 2016 pitching staff would do well to begin the battle back to a favorable count at the first sign of trouble.