How would rule changes impact the Pittsburgh Pirates?

How would potential changes by the competition committee impact the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017?

In case you missed it, the competition committee approved two potential changes to the game this past week, one of which could have a great impact on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In changes that could take place as soon as 2017, the committee rule to adjust the bottom of the strike zone from the hollow part just below the knee to the top of the knee and to make intentional walks automatic.

The next stage in the process is approval or rejection by the rules committee. If they approve the changes, the rules would take effect for the 2017 season. The rules will also be presented for voting by the players’ association, but player approval is not necessary for the rules to be adjusted. The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2016.

Both moves are designed to speed up the game and promote offense to maintain the interest level of fans with shorter attention spans, but how would the changes impact the Pittsburgh Pirates?

The automatic intentional walk is something fans, players, and managers have been clamoring for years to have put in place, but whether or not you are a purist when it comes to baseball, this may never happen in baseball again…

I find the intentional walk tedious, but there is something about hoping a pitcher hangs one too close to the strike zone or throws it away from the catcher, as in the video above, that makes it intriguing enough to me to merit consideration to be kept in the game.

While the one rule change involves the removal of potential unintended consequences, the other change promotes unintentional consequences. Raising the strike zone could potentially undo all the changes MLB has made to shorten the length of the game. Four decades ago, defense was praised across most professional sports. Now, just about every major professional sports league is trying to find ways to promote increased offensive output.

According to Pitch f/x, the average strike zone in 2010 was 22.2 inches. The proposed change would reduce the strike zone by about three inches to roughly 19 inches. It sounds insignificant, but in a game of inches, it would likely have dramatic ramifications.

According to Brooks Baseball, Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitchers have thrown 13.2% of their pitches against left-handed batters in the lower third of the strike zone, as of May 26th.

They have thrown 13.7% of their pitches in the same area against right-handed batters.

The low strike; Hitters hate it. Pitchers love it, but the low strike could be severely limited by the change, which would be problematic for just about every team. The Pirates could be in the group especially effected by the strike zone being raised.

Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitchers have thrown 28.2% of their pitches below the strike zone this season against right-handed batters. Against left-handed batters, the number drops slightly to 25.9% of pitches. Given that pitches beyond three inches out of the zone are very rarely called as strikes, the proposed change would essentially eliminate any chance of nearly a third of the team’s pitches being called a strike. Furthermore, the change would make 40.5% of pitches thrown in the bottom-third of the current strike zone a ball next year.

According to Baseball Savant, umpires have to make a call on a pitch about 53% of the time with an accuracy of approximately 85%. Over the course of a season, a pitching staff throws roughly 21,000 pitches, which means pitchers will throw about 360 pitches for a ball that would be called a strike this year. Making a big deal over just 1.7% of the pitches thrown in an average season may seem insignificant, but think about the impact it would have for the Pirates on both sides.

Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow feature two of the best curveballs in the minor leagues. Jared Hughes and Tony Watson rely on a fastball with a lot of sinking action. Francisco Liriano is known for his slider. Break is the pride of nearly every effective pitcher, but the rule change would punish the pitchers who make a living freezing batters with sharp pitches around the knees.

It would force pitchers to bring the ball up in the zone, likely leading to an increase in the rate at which the ball is put in play, hits, runs, and ERA. The walk rate will likely increase with 36 less square inches for pitches to hit.

On the offensive side, the team that currently sits in the top five teams in the NL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, stolen bases, RBI, doubles, hits, and runs, will almost certainly benefit. Reaping the rewards of an approach prided on on-base percentage, the plate discipline and smart hitting shown by the Pirates’ hitters could devastate opposing pitchers.

Let us know how you feel about the potential changes by taking our short poll below or by commenting on the site or social media.

Featured image photo credit: Daniel Decker Photography

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