Before each Pittsburgh Pirates series this season, we give you some individual match-ups to to keep an eye on.
For the first time since the middle of the month of May, the Pittsburgh Pirates enter a series following a series loss. The Pirates (28-21) lost two of three games in an inter-league series against the Texas Rangers in Arlington over the weekend, their first series loss since May 13-15 against the Chicago Cubs.
The Pirates now look forward to yet another road series, but this time against a National League East opponent in the form of the Miami Marlins. The Pirates head to South Beach as they begin a four-game set tonight against the Marlins (26-24) at Marlins Park. With the Marlins only appearing on the Pirates schedule on limited occasions, there are plenty of rare match-ups to watch in a series between teams hoping to gain ground in two tough divisions.
1.) Jeff Locke vs. Martin Prado
Tonight, the Pirates turn to Jeff Locke in the opening game of this series. Locke, who has battled inconsistency throughout his career with the Pirates, has once again battled with it this season. In nine starts this year, Locke is 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA. Locke has also allowed eight home runs and 24 walks in 51.1 innings pitched this year.
In his career, Locke hasn’t had much success against many guys in the Marlins lineup, allowing batting averages above the .300 mark to various players including Adeiny Hechavarria, Chris Johnson, and Giancarlo Stanton. However, one player that hasn’t had much success against Locke is Martin Prado.
In his career against Locke, Prado, a career .292 hitter, is only 3-for-14 (.214), but two of his hits are home runs. He also has four RBIs and two walks against the Pirates southpaw.
This season, Prado, who in my opinion is a very underrated third baseman, has the 11th best batting average in baseball, hitting .326 with 15 RBIs in 46 games this season.
This particular matchup is intriguing based on two things: Locke’s success against Prado throughout his career and Prado’s underrated value as a baseball player. Prado does have those two homers in his career against Locke and has none in 2016, so maybe he’s due for one, but on the other hand, Prado has two hits in his last 14 at-bats and Locke could take advantage of those recent struggles.
2.) Gerrit Cole vs Jose Fernandez
This particular match-up doesn’t include a pitcher versus batter match-up, but it involves the pitching matchup in Tuesday night’s game at Marlins Park.
Both the Pirates and the Marlins send their aces to the mound as Gerrit Cole goes up against Jose Fernandez. In a 2011 Major League Baseball Draft that was filled with pitching talent, Cole, the first overall pick, and Fernandez, the 14th overall pick, were two key names selected. They were viewed as the future of their respective teams’ pitching staffs and they haven’t disappointed. Both pitchers were highly regarded prospects before making their respective debuts in 2013 and have continued to pitch at a strong pace every step of the way.
This season, Cole has clearly been the Pirates’ best starter, even after a less than stellar start to the year that saw him lose his first two starts. After an April in which he went 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts, Cole has been noticeably better in the month of May, compiling a 3-1 record with a 2.35 ERA in five starts. In nine starts this year, Cole is 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 53.1 innings pitched.
In his last few starts, Cole, who is known as a strikeout pitcher, has figured out a way to stay competitive without racking up the punch-outs. A perfect example of this was his May 20th outing against the Colorado Rockies in which he pitched seven innings, giving up one earned run on 10 hits while walking one and failing to record a strikeout in a game for the first time in his major league career.
When it comes to Fernandez, there’s plenty to talk about as he is one of the most dangerous pitchers in the game. Unlike Cole, Fernandez has dealt with various injuries throughout his few years in the big leagues. In 2014, Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery and was limited to just 19 starts in 2014 and 2015. However, Fernandez, an All-Star and the National League Rookie of the Year in 2013, has arguably been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season. In 10 starts, Fernandez is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA and currently ranks second in the NL in strikeouts with 90.
Like Cole, Fernandez has been at his best during the month of May. He comes into his next start against Pittsburgh with a perfect 5-0 record and a 1.69 ERA in five May starts.
In a battle such as this one, there really isn’t much good news for hitters on the Pirates and the Marlins. When it comes to batting average, the Pirates (.283) rank second and the Marlins (.274) rank third in all of baseball; however, there may not be a ton of offense in this game. Expect a pitcher’s duel in this one as both pitchers attempt to continue their May success on the last day of the month.
3.) Jon Niese vs Giancarlo Stanton
On Wednesday night, Jon Niese takes the mound in game three of this four-game set in Miami. Niese, who has had an up and down season, has actually been stellar in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 12 strikeouts. Niese has also pitched deep into ballgames AND kept guys off of the base-paths via the free pass, pitching at least six innings in each start during that span and allowing no more than two walks in each start.
Niese, who is 5-2 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 starts this season, has also improved in five starts in the month of May compared to his five starts in the month of April. In fact, in four starts since his start on May 3rd against the Cubs, Niese has lowered his ERA from 5.94 to 4.42. He also has a 3.82 ERA in May compared to his April ERA of 5.08.
Niese will enter his start against the Marlins with the hope of keeping up his pace of stellar outings; however, it won’t be easy as he faces a familiar foe in the Marlins. Niese, a former New York Met, has plenty of experience against the Marlins and one match-up to look forward to is when Giancarlo Stanton steps into the box against Niese.
Stanton, who has been known to put up huge power numbers throughout his career, has struggled in 2016, hitting only .214 with 61 strikeouts in 154 at-bats. His power numbers are still steady with 12 home runs along with 26 RBIs, but it’s not what we’re used to seeing from a guy who is a career .267 hitter and has 193 home runs throughout his seven-year big league career.
Despite these struggles, Stanton has had monster success throughout his career against Niese, going 12-for-29 (.414) with one double, four home runs, eight RBIs, two walks, and nine strikeouts against the Pirates’ lefty.
This matchup is intriguing because of Stanton’s struggles and Niese’s recent success. However, it will interesting to see if Stanton continues his historical dominance against Niese and if this can wake him up from his terrors at the plate.
The Miami Marlins are a team that is very similar to the Pirates in the sense that they are a good hitting team that doesn’t hit a ton of home runs as well as a team that has struggled at times when it comes to pitching. These similarities are what will most likely make this series one to pay close attention to over the next four days.
Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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