The Pittsburgh Pirates, coming off of a 98 win season in 2015, were expected to once again be a playoff contender in 2016. Their starting rotation has had other ideas.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have recently faced an incredible string of starting pitching and the schedule will ease up during the second half of the season, so the opportunity to turn the season around is there. But one aspect of the team that has put them on the outside looking in at the playoff standings is that the starting rotation has not been very good. Other than Gerrit Cole, who currently is residing on the disabled list, the starters just have not been very good.
Let’s do a quick look at some numbers, going back to 2013. We’ll start the comparison with the 2013 team, since that gives us the same time period as the article detailing the problems with the bullpen.
[table id=152 /]*Through 76 games
Right away we can see that the numbers across the board are much worse than in previous years. The ERA of the starters has ballooned to 4.72, over a run higher than the team’s previous worst ERA in the time period we are using. So what are some of the reasons that the team finds itself in this situation?
The Bad Liriano has shown up in 2016
The good news is that Francisco Liriano leads the team in strikeouts. The bad news is that he also leads the team in issuing walks. Prior to coming to Pittsburgh in 2013, Liriano’s seasons varied greatly. Here are Liriano’s ERA from 2005-2012: 5.70, 2.16, 3.91, 5.80, 3.62, 5.09, 5.34. After his spectacular 2013 season, Liriano earned his second Comeback Player of the Year (the other came in 2010 with the Minnesota Twins).
The Pirates signed Liriano to a three year, $39 million deal before the start of the 2015 season, hoping that he had put his troubles behind him. For that year it looked like he had, as he put up a 3.38 ERA, the same as he did in 2014. He also continued to show that he had the ability to strike hitters out, collecting more punch outs than innings pitched for the fifth season in a row.
But this year Liriano is sitting at a 4-8 record and an ERA of 5.33, not numbers you want to see out of one of your top starting pitchers. Even worse is the 83/54 K/BB ratio, so it’s no wonder that he has an elevated ERA since he is allowing a lot of base runners.
Whether he is hurt or it’s just that Father Time has finally caught up with him, Liriano is not pitching as well as he did when he arrived in Pittsburgh. There are rumors that the Baltimore Orioles have interest in him, but the Pirates still have a few weeks to decide if they are going to be sellers and build for 2017. No matter if he stays with the Pirates or gets moved to another team, Liriano will need to improve to be a help his team. With the amount of money he is owed, the Pirates cannot afford to simply cut him. There best hope is that he turns things around quickly and helps them make the postseason for a fourth consecutive season.
The Pirates banked on Nicasio maintaining his spring training success
Juan Nicasio had a brilliant spring training and looked to be an under the radar signing that could fill out the rotation. In 15 innings, he did not give up a run and struck out 24 hitters in the process. Obviously the team knew that he would not shut out all of his opponents once the season started, but they probably thought that he could fill in as a back end starter for the rotation.
Nicasio’s season started out well. He kept the St. Louis Cardinals to just one run on April 6th, allowing no walks to go along with seven strikeouts. Since then, Nicasio has mixed in some good starts with some very bad starts, putting his season ERA at an unsightly 5.48. But because the team put so many eggs in the Nicasio basket, they were not prepared if he took a step back. And it appears that he has taken quite a big step back in the last few weeks. Roster moves in the last few days have resulted in Nicasio being moved to the bullpen, which should help strengthen the rotation.
Does the rotation as it stands now actually have the best options in place?
As mentioned above, the roster has seen some changes lately. With Gerrit Cole still on the mend and Nicasio’s move to the bullpen, spots in the rotation have opened up. But it’s fair to ask the question, did the team have the best options in the rotation to start the season, and do they now?
With Jameson Taillon called up and getting his feet wet at this level, the team has brought up one of the top pitchers in their system. On Sunday Chad Kuhl made his debut against the Los Angeles Dodgers, limiting them to just four runs over five innings. He did walk four and was a little wild at times. Surely some of that was due to nerves because he was making his debut, and on a national broadcast to boot.
But there is still one top pitching prospect laboring in the minors, that being Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow has been a curious case this season. With the Indianapolis Indians, Glasnow has compiled a 6-2 record to go with a 1.61 ERA and 100 strikeouts in just 84 innings of work. So what’s keeping him in AAA? His inability to limit the number of free passes, as he has allowed 47 walks in those innings. In fact, in his last two starts, Glasnow has not allowed a hit over 13 innings. He has also struck out 14 in those two games, but also issued 11 walks.
Now, there are some that believe Glasnow should remain in the minors and continue working on limiting the base on balls. I am not in that camp. He clearly is a dominant pitcher in all other facets of his game, and perhaps coming to Pittsburgh and working with Ray Searage and his staff is what he needs.
So what can be done?
I think the team is on the right path to getting the rotation in order. The Pittsburgh Pirates are not completely out of the wild card race at this point, so getting some new arms in the rotation could be a big boost. Taillon and Kuhl could give them two right handers that have very different skill sets, so opponents would have to change their approach against each of them. Once Cole returns from his injury, the team could have three very good right handers to go with two of the southpaws, either Liriano, Jonathon Niese or Jeff Locke. But this could all change if Glasnow can bring the walks down to a reasonable rate.
At that point the Pittsburgh Pirates will have a very good problem on their hands.
Featured Image credit – Daniel Decker Photography
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