The Pittsburgh Pirates scouted Rich Hill’s return from the DL. Could he be a good fit?
Not only did the Pittsburgh Pirates face Oakland Athletics starter Rich Hill this past Saturday, but veteran reporter Susan Slusser notes that the Pirates were among many teams that scouted the 36 year-old’s outing.
Can the Pirates, a team with uncertain starting pitching at best, find enough positives to justify renting an older starter with a checkered injury history?
A Real-Time Renaissance
That checked injury history has seen Hill miss what amounts to entire seasons in 2014, 2011 and 2010 – his high mark for innings pitched in these years tops out at 8.0 – and large chunks of many others.
Coming into 2016, he had pitched a grand total of 104.2 innings combined over the past six seasons. Put simply, counting on Hill to provide any semblance of a season worthy of investment is a bad bet.
However, in 2016 Hill has reworked himself into a very effective pitcher. For the most part, he has held up, hurling 70.2 IP this year despite a minor injury necessitating a DL stint.
While he has always had good strikeout ability at 9.0 K/9 for his career, he has taken that to another level with 10.3 per “game” in 2016. He has also reduced his walks per nine from a 4.1 career mark to 3.3 in the current campaign. Above all, he keeps the ball in the ballpark with just 0.3 home runs allowed per nine stanzas. Backed by a FIP of 2.71, his 2.31 ERA does not resemble a fluke when stood up next to his 4.26 career mark.
An Interesting Pitch Mix
Hill has an interesting mix of pitches, but has relied on the four-seam fastball and curveball almost exclusively in 2016.
Both pitches see usage at or near 45 percent, with a sinking ball and slow curve clocking in at less than half a percent of use. A seldom seen slider and changeup also make cameos with less than five percent usage each.
It is hard to fully grasp how a pitcher with a fastball that tops out at 93mph can be so effective with basically two pitches. However, Hill gets very good whiff rates from the two – 14.51 for the four seam and 10.2 for the curve) which likely explains how he is getting away with it.
As we said, the slider is barely used but is equally effective, with a 10.4 whiff rate. One wonders what getting Hill in the hands of Pittsburgh Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage would yield. As we saw with J.A. Happ in 2015, Searage is very good at identifying pitches that may work better if used more. The slider could gain effectiveness and serve as a true third pitch in this way.
Contractual Matters
Hill comes at a very reasonable rate for starting pitching. Making about $6 million this year, Hill’s contract is very similar to Happ’s 2015 salary of $6.7 million. Oakland’s Vice President Billy Beane has not historically eaten salary in deadline deals in the past, though his team is now undeniably in a rebuild. This fact alone may drive up Hill’s price tag in terms of prospects.
With the Pittsburgh Pirates set at many positions for the forseeable future, they may be willing to part with some mid-level prospects not named Reese McGuire or Kevin Newman. That still seems like an awfully high price tag for such a huge risk as Hill.
If the Pittsburgh Pirates can hang in the Wild Card race just a bit longer, they may have a real interest in Hill. For now, in the position the club currently finds itself in, there may be no real impetus to deal for Hill.
Consider the scouting a bit of due diligence for now.
Featured Image Credit – Keith Allison – Used under Flickr Creative Commons
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