As part of our Trademas in July series, we’ll take a look at potential trade targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Today we look at Chris Archer, a right-handed starter for the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Tampa Bay Rays have always been one of the more intriguing small-market clubs in baseball. They regularly struggle to get attendance. They consistently have the continuous infusion of youth necessary for an organization to build around, but now 15 and a half games back in the American League wild card race, the Rays are once again faced with the possibility of selling off some of their young, high-profile players in hopes of starting the process all over again.
The Pirates reportedly have been scouting the Rays’ young, controllable starting pitchers in an effort to stabilize a rotation that has been expectedly disappointing.
Trade rumor mill alert: #Nationals, #Pirates, #RedSox have high-level scouts at Trop tonight, Archer is on mound for #Rays.
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) July 16, 2016
Unlike many teams, the Pirates have the pool of talent capable of acquiring someone like Archer without completely derailing their plans of sustained competitiveness, but it doesn’t answer the question whether it’s the right move.
Profile and Performance
Archer will turn 28 just days before the regular season ends. He’s still under control for three seasons at $18.5 million, and his contract also has a $9 million club option with a $1.75 million buyout for 2020.
In the two seasons prior to 2016, Archer was the definition of a stellar innings-eater. He posted an ERA around 3.20 and compiled around 200 innings each season. Archer features a three-pitch mix with a high-90s fourseam fastball, a high-80s changeup, and a high-80s slider.
When he is effectively controlling the strike zone, his changeup and fastball work together in perfect harmony. The changeup at 88-90mph operates very similar to a somewhat slow sinker, while the fastball at 95-97 keeps hitters off balance.
Here is a look at Archer’s career to date:
The case for Archer
- Archer is set to make just $5.5 million more over the next three years than Francisco Liriano will make next year alone.
- Archer does not struggle with splits against left-handed or right-handed batters. Rather, his performance is either sublime or subpar across the board.
- He would be a break from the Pirates mantra of utilizing pitchers who can get batters out without relying on the strikeout. Archer is one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in the game when he’s actually on his game, but he also gets plenty of groundball outs. His changeup has a groundball rate of 60 percent, while his fastball has a groundball rate of 39 percent.
The case against Archer
- Archer has not struggled as much as he has in 2016 since his major league debut in 2012. He has seen his home runs and walks allowed skyrocket. In the minor leagues, Archer struggled with control leading to a high number of walks, but he never struggled with giving up the long ball before this season.
- Archer has seen a dramatic rise in the isolated power and slugging against averages on his fastball. In 2015, batters slugged .405 against the pitch. So far in 2016, it has jumped to .559. The isolated power has gone from .142, neither terrible nor great, to .271, which is Bryce Harper-level numbers.
What it might take
Like the Pirates, the Rays are fairly well stocked when it comes to organizational infield depth, so players like Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, Kevin Kramer, Ke’Bryan Hayes would likely all be safe from any trade talks in this case. However, first baseman Logan Morrison has had a terrible season, and he is scheduled to be a free agent after this season.
Jake Bauers is the only first base prospect in the team’s top 30 list. He is hitting well for contact and power at the Double-A level with the Montgomery Biscuits, but his use at both first base and in the outfield has limited his development enough that it would be considered a stretch to believe he would be ready to take over the position at first by next season, which is where the Pirates come in.
Josh Bell has been tearing the cover off of the ball his entire career, at least as far as average is concerned, but this year, he is quite literally tearing the cover off of the ball. Bell is consistently hitting for power, which was expected when he nearly single-handedly rewrote the rule book for the MLB draft with his record signing bonus.
The problem
The problem for the Pirates would be giving up Bell would set them back at the position again after finally having a prospect on the cusp of being able to contribute.
The Rays also lack pitching depth closer to the major league level, many of their top pitching prospects are still mired in the lower levels of the minor league system. The Pirates, at the moment, have plenty to part with in the form of major league veterans like Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio, or Ryan Vogelsong, and they also have more prospects than a rotation can handle with Steven Brault, Wilfredo Boscan, Trevor Williams, and Nick Kingham falling into the category of pitchers with which the Pirates would likely be willing to part.
Conclusions
The Pirates already have a few pitchers on the 25-man roster who can put up 2015 Archer numbers when they’re in the groove and 2016 Archer numbers when they’re off their game. A pair of them, Niese and Liriano, may cost more and lack the youth and control of Archer, but the Pirates need to avoid selling the future, Bell, Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Steven Brault, Kevin Newman, etc. The other factor is whether Archer would even return to form by joining the Pirates. If not, the Pirates would have just made a huge investment in an anchor dragging the rotation down for years to come. Archer is not a risk the Pirates can afford; steer clear.
Featured Image Credit – Keith Allison – Flickr Creative Commons
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