Peripherals Show That Andrew McCutchen May Actually Be Back

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been waiting for this version of their perennial MVP candidate to show up.

Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen is finally showing strong signs of breaking out of his season-long funk.

Over the past seven days, McCutchen is slashing .391/.500/.739 with two home runs and seven RBI. While these numbers are exciting, they do not tell the true tale of how the 29 year old, seven year veteran has broken out of some bad habits.

Afterall, critics of his recent hot streak will point to his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .412 over the past six games as having more to do with his resurgence than anything else. Skeptics will say that this is a typical “west coast version” of McCutchen that comes out every so often.

Many will think that this rebirth cannot be sustained. But, some choice peripherals tell us otherwise.

What Was Down Must Come Up

For McCutchen, his climb back to his normal level is a case of the right peripherals coming up, and the right peripherals going down.

Here is a snapshot look at what McCutchen has been able to do over the last seven days.

 

We have written a lot of words on McCutchen. We’ve wondered out loud how the Pittsburgh Pirates could best solve the problem. We have noticed that he is getting more pitches in the zone, but still struggling.

But, the bottom line is that McCutchen was chasing more pitches than ever before, His O-swing percentage (percentage of swings at pitches out of the zone) was at 25.8 percent for the year, easily his highest rate; still below the MLB average of 30, but the highest of his career for the 2013 NL MVP. Combine that with a swinging strike percentage that is two full percentage points above the MLB average, a walk rate that is nearly five percentage points lower than his 2015 rate of 14.3 percent, and it’s clear that McCutchen was having a bad time.

Now, as the infographic shows, all of those rates are improving. Additionally, he is hitting the ball much harder – nearly 12 percent harder to be exact.

All of these improvements may seem somewhat incremental, but they add up to show much improved production over the past week. McCutchen’s 201 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) – a rate stat serving as a good barometer for production – nearly doubled over his season-long figure.

But, beyond these peripherals, what constitutes a “return to form” for McCutchen in the context of the rest of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ season?

A Different Type of Production

There is a reason that the phrase “chicks dig the long ball” became so popular.

As baseball observers and fans, sometimes we are trained to look toward the more tangible statistics – home runs, RBI, batting average – to measure a player’s worth. Even in this Moneyball era, that stigma remains.

But, as we mentioned in today’s wake up call, the Pirates might be just as well served with a version of Andrew McCutchen that is consistently involved in the team’s run production efforts.

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]In the game previous, McCutchen’s line looked pedestrian to the naked eye. He went 2-3 with a walk, a triple, and a run scored in the club’s 4-3 win on Tuesday. It is those types of batting lines that tell us that McCutchen has come a long way from the “0-for freaking-4” days.[/perfectpullquote]

McCutchen doesn’t necessarily have to provide the theatricals that he’s had to in the past. This 2016 Pirates team is one of the deepest in memory. When clicking, their lineup from one through eight has the potential to be deadly.

The Pittsburgh Pirates would gladly instead take a McCutchen that can put up those typical “Cutch lines” like the one above. Always in the action. Never an easy out.

And, if he starts there…in this offense, the sizzle hits will be there.

What’s Done Is Done

To hear McCutchen tell it, his eventual snap back to his normal level was inevitable.

From Travis Sawhick’s excellent column in the Trib today:

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”Andrew McCutchen” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]“I’ve turned something. I don’t know if it’s turning a page or a corner or something. Things are going well for us. Going well for me, too.”[/perfectpullquote]

When asked later if the decision by Clint Hurdle to bench him for an entire series helped him, McCutchen was defiant.

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]“I will forever tell you that (those) three days had nothing to do with what I’m doing,” McCutchen said. “I would’ve done this regardless. I might have five more hits in three games. Instead of hitting .240, I could be hitting .260.[/perfectpullquote]

Though McCutchen may strongly believe that the spell had nothing to do with it, it is difficult to imagine the rest having absolutely zero effect, as he suggests. For this mini-resurgence to turn into something lasting, all involved would do well to keep their eyes forward.

This Pittsburgh Pirates team is just one game out of a wild card spot, and things are looking favorably for them.

Perhaps nothing looks as favorable as their perennial MVP rounding into form.

Better late than never.

Featured Image Credit – Terry Foote