Jordy Mercer’s Power Surge Examined

The Pittsburgh Pirates May See a Power Surge from an Unexpected Source in Jordy Mercer

 

Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer has been known more for his defense that his bat, however, this season he has already hit 11 home runs, including his first career grand slam, and is on pace for a career high in RBIs.

Can this power surge last? Can Mercer be relied upon as a surprise run producer in the bottom of the lineup for the stretch run? We take a look at some trends and past performance to help us answer those questions.

Predictable Performance

As it turns out, Mercer is hitting in, what is for him, a fairly repeatable pattern. He tends to start off slowly, gain steam through July, then wilt a bit in August.  In the heat of August, he appears to trade off average for power, taking more big cuts at pitches. He does connect on more extra base hits late in the season, but also strikes out more and gets on base less.

Jordy Mercer career hitting performance by month

The 2016 season has played out for Mercer according to this pattern. The big difference for him this year is he started off hot at the plate instead of warming up slowly. He hit .318 in April, which led him to a .282 batting average heading into August. Then, from August 1st through the 25th, Mercer dropped to a slash line of .171/.256/.329. Interestingly though, through the game prior to his first career grand slam, he had already hit three home runs in the month. His strategy at the plate seems to be to swing harder and deal with the unavoidable swing and miss strikeouts that go hand-in-hand with that approach.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]As it turns out, Mercer is hitting in, what is for him, a fairly repeatable pattern.[/perfectpullquote]

Mercer Typically has a Weak August

This is not unprecedented for Jordy Mercer. This pattern has repeated itself in every season except 2015, where he was injured for the second half of July and two-thirds of August. In 2013, Mercer’s first season as an everyday player, his average dropped to .267 in August, down from .293 in June. In 2014, he saw his average drop to .284, down from .319 the month before. In those two seasons, he had a 2.45 K/BB ratio in the month of August as compared to his career average of 2.29. Countering this, Mercer’s home run totals are relatively good in the month of August. Lifetime, he has swatted eight in August (nine including his grand slam), compared to only three in the month of July. His doubles total takes a hit in August, dropping to 12 lifetime versus 22 in July.

Fatigue or Coincidence

So, what do all these numbers mean? The fact that he is striking out more and walking less, combined with the increase in home runs at the expense of doubles and batting average, all support the eye test that he starts swinging harder and wilder when the calendar turns to August. It is possible that these numbers are skewed by the specific situations in which Mercer finds himself. In every season since he turned pro, he has been part of a team making a run for the playoffs and he may have been called upon to change his approach. Although this is possible, it is unlikely. What is more probable is that fatigue plays a part. In 2015, when Mercer was injured for a month, he came back and hit .333 in the second half of August. In this case, it seems that the rest was good for him.

The fatigue theory also plays out in microcosm within individual games. It is well known that Mercer hits LHP much better than RHP. What is less well known is Mercer is a much better career hitter in the early innings of games versus the later innings. This will be somewhat skewed by facing relief pitching versus starting pitching and his position in the lineup, but over the course of 1700+ at-bats, a reliable pattern emerges.

Innings	At-Bats	Batting Average	On Base %	Slugging %	Home Runs
1-3	525	.282	.327	.434	16
4-6	578	.272	.334	.415	14
7-9	548	.217	.279	.285	3

Jordy Mercer career hitting performance by inning

Mercer hits a full 50 points lower in later innings against relief pitching (probably skewed to righties), and his slugging percentage drops off a cliff. Although this is generally true for major league hitters, it is much more pronounced for Mercer. One could argue that the combination of a tired Mercer and a fresh relief pitcher does not favor the shortstop and Clint Hurdle should look to pinch hit for him in the late innings of tight games.

What We Can Expect in September

Given all this what can we expect from Jordy Mercer in September? The good news for Pirates fans is Mercer seems to bounce back to his “normal” self in September. His career slash line for that month is .259/.319/.429, making September his best month for slugging percentage. He maintains his home run rate while hitting more doubles (19 lifetime) and drawing more walks (2.13 K/BB ratio), which brings up his batting average and on-base percentages. If there is a fatigue factor at work here, it appears that Mercer overcomes it as the calendar turns to September.

Mercer’s hitting in September will be critically important for the Pirates as they try to make the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season. Fans should be optimistic that the cooler September weather will make for a hot Mercer bat.

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Featured Photo Credit – Terry Foote – Flickr Creative Commons