In our daily Wake-Up Call, we get you ready for the day with a complete look at all things Pittsburgh Pirates.
Less than two days after Ken Rosenthal re-ignited the Pittsburgh Pirates/Jose Quintana hot stove rumors, many have spent their time creating various trade packages that they feel will land the left-hander.
We’ll stop short of creating our own package, mainly because it is a pointless endeavor. We previously broke down several tiers of prospects, gauging how each might line up as a target for the Sox, but to go beyond that is truly a fool’s game.
The more interesting debate is how fans and observers alike are steadfast in their adamant insistence that Josh Bell not be included in any potential deal. But why should that be, exactly?
Peak Value?
First, Bell’s trade value may never be higher than it is now. Bell put up a walk rate of 13.8 percent in 152 plate appearances last year, a figure perhaps only eclipsed when viewed alongside a 12.5 percent strikeout rate. Both are incredibly impressive rates for a 24 year old making his first lap through the major leagues. He did this without going through the first prolonged slump that most new major league hitters do – think Gregory Polanco.
Despite the highly encouraging start to his career, the simple truth is that no one knows what type of hitter Bell will mature into. Bell may be able to sustain similar rates throughout his career, or opposing pitchers and scouting may be able to find the holes in his swing.
Defense Concerns
Secondly, the defense factor rears its ugly head.
Bell’s still-woeful defense at first base is well documented. The Pittsburgh Pirates have put a lot of time into teaching the position to Bell, but the fact remains that he is likely not major league ready for the everyday rigors of first base.
From what we’ve seen of Bell to this point, there is no reason to think that he does not have the skill and desire to get there.
Eventually.
But with his natural position as an outfielder, and the Pittsburgh Pirates with a logjam there even after an Andrew McCutchen trade, would it make more sense for all involved if the club took an honest accounting of Bell’s future in the field and then decided on if they should dangle him in a deal?
Pittsburgh is a team that must use every available angle to compete, and that includes run prevention and defense. Other teams could perhaps afford to keep a deficient defender at an important position, but the Pirates simply are not that team.
Again, there is no reason that Bell can’t one day excel at the position. but would the Pittsburgh Pirates be better served by flipping Bell to land a starting pitcher of Quintana’s caliber rather than waiting for that to happen? Run prevention does start with quality starting pitching, after all.
None of this is presented as career-derailing criticism of Bell. He will be a quality everyday major league hitter.
Other Options
So, if the Pirates do trade Bell that would create a hole at first base. How would they fill it?
David Freese and John Jaso would provide a sufficient stopgap platoon solution until the team can find a long-term answer. Freese will of course spell Kang at third regularly, and Clint Hurdle will have some mix and match options in that regard. Jose Osuna was protected from Rule 5 for a reason, and he provides minor league depth in case of injury.
The club could then begin the process of moving third base prospect Will Craig to first base, a move that many feel would have happened eventually. Making this position switch now will allow more development time for Craig to learn the position without the pressure of needing a major league body at first. Couple that with a bargain free agent signing in 2018, and there is an easy path to seeing first manned regularly in the coming years.
If the Pittsburgh Pirates don’t trade Bell, that would not be a mistake, either. As said above and shown at the plate last year, Bell has the tools to be a very effective everyday major league hitter.
But, he should not be considered “untouchable.”
Baseball Talk on the Web
- FanGraphs reviews the Top 30 Cincinnati Reds prospects.
- Craig Calcaterra makes an excellent case for Hall of Fame honors for Edgar Martinez.
- Some feel that Elias Diaz could be an attractive piece for the White Sox. They signed Geovany Soto yesterday, so that may put a kink in those plans. Again, this is why it is fruitless to speculate on exact packages.
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