The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team that must live and die by its prospects. In a new series, PBD will project each of the team’s Top 20 prospects in 2017.
Welcome to a new recurring series here at Pirates Breakdown in which we count down and project the 2017 seasons for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Top 20 prospects, ranked as per MLB Pipeline.
Today we take a look at the team’s #11 prospect, P Clay Holmes.
Prospect Primer
Clay Holmes was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the ninth round of the 2011 MLB draft. Holmes has great size at 6’5” 230 pounds and has great sinking action on his fourseam fastball. to go along with a curveball and change. The fastball finds the highest rate – 60 – while his curve and change have a bit of catching up to do.
Holmes interestingly enough also had elbow surgery around the same time that Pirates starter Jameson Taillon had his. Like Taillon, he has made it back without any longterm complications.
Strengths
One of the obvious strengths that sticks out in Clay Holmes’ pitching arsenal is his downward moving fastball, and that easily caught the Pittsburgh Pirates’ eye.
It is proven that pitchers who can produce ground balls at a high rate will hang around in the majors for a very long time. If you question that, check Charlie Morton. Holmes pitches on a downward plane and his fastball will sit in the low 90’s. He has an above average change up for where he is at developmentally, so that helps him keep hitters off balance.
Perhaps most importantly, Holmes did a decent job of getting batters to whiff last season. In 136.1 innings with the Altoona Curve, he had 101 strikeouts, equating to a K/9 of 6.67. Holmes did regress on the ERA side, but that was come to be expected against better competition.
Areas For Improvement
One area of improvement that sticks out is his secondary pitches as a whole. While his changeup may be above average for his developmental state, it is still not a work of art. The one pitch that needs the most work is probably his curveball. It is clearly a pitch that he is going to have to work on as he moves forward.
Another issue that stands out when looking over Holmes 2016 production is his walk rate. Last season Holmes walked 64 batters in 136.1 innings pitched. That would suggest that Holmes walked a batter every 2.1 innings.
Holmes showed better control at lower levels of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ system, and having had a full year at Altoona to adjust to better hitters, that could return.
Where He Starts 2017
It is likely that Clay Holmes will continue to pitch with the Altoona Curve to start the 2017 season. He did not blow it out of the water last year by any means. Holmes will have to show the ability to control his secondary pitches and throw them for strikes on a consistent basis. Holmes has all the intangibles you are looking for but needs to show improvement in his second year at Altoona.
Where He Ends 2017
The Pirates are going to be in a wait and see mode with Holmes. Holmes is highly regarded due to his body size, downward movement on his fastball, and potential. Where Holmes ends 2017 is completely rested on his shoulders. If he has another mediocre season, the Pittsburgh Pirates may not be encouraged to move him up to AAA Indianapolis. If Holmes does fill his potential though, he may see time at Indy. The wait and see approach is on with Mr. Holmes.
Image Credit – Jeffrey Hyde – Flickr Creative Commons
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
