How should the Pittsburgh Pirates address their third base situation – in both the long term and short term?
Last week in our “Keep or Trade” series, we reviewed a couple of Pittsburgh Pirates first basemen – John Jaso and Josh Bell. This week, we turn our attention to the third base tandem of Jung Ho Kang and David Freese with a goal of ultimately answering the question “should the Pirates keep them or trade them?”
Tag Team at Third Base
When it became apparent that Jung Ho Kang would not be ready for opening day of the 2016 season, Neal Huntington made the shrewd acquisition of free agent David Freese. Freese manned the hot corner for all of April and then started every third game as Kang ramped back into form. Freese was paid a scant $3M for his services in 2016 and went on to play in 141 games for the Pirates, eventually signing a two-year contract extension.
Jung Ho Kang was signed from the Korean Baseball Organization prior to the 2015 season. At the time, the $5M negotiating rights and $11M four-year deal with a fifth year team option seemed risky. In retrospect, it was a steal for the savvy Pirates. Kang had his leg broken on a take-out slide near the end of the 2015 season, but returned from the DL on May 6, 2016. On that same day, he promptly jacked two homers against the Cardinals, winning the game for the Pirates and solidifying his near-legend status in the city of Pittsburgh. Kang’s playing time was closely monitored, but he ended up starting 87 games at 3B for the Pirates last season. He had off-the-field issues during the season and is currently in serious legal trouble back home in Korea. At this time, it’s unclear what affect this will have on Kang’s 2017 season but it has to be a primary concern for the Pirate’s front office.
Big Bats
Many fans wondered which David Freese the Pirates would get. Would they get the 2011 World Series MVP version that slashed .297/.350/.441? Or would they get the more recent 2015 Angels version that played in only 121 games and had a batting average of .257? It turns out they got a mix of the two. In 2016, Freese hit .270/.352/.412 for the Bucs with 36 extra-base hits. He also struck out 142 times in 492 plate appearance. This equated to a whiff in almost every third at-bat and some of those K’s were pretty ugly. Last season, his Z-Strike% (the percentage of strikes that he swings at and makes contact) fell to a career low 83.3%. Compare this to his five years with the Cardinals where he only struck out 21% of the time and it becomes clear that Freese is much less choosy at the plate these days. This is especially true against RHP where he managed an average of only .252. Freese did hit 13 home runs and was comfortable hitting in the 3-hole where his slash line improved to .307/.387/.431. This might just be luck however, as his batting average on balls in play (BAbip) was a sky-high .430 when batting third. All in all, the Pirates definitely got their three million dollars worth out of David Freese’s bat in 2016.
Almost immediately upon his arrival, Jung Ho Kang became the deep threat the Pirates were searching for to fill the void left by Pedro Alvarez’ departure. In 2015, Kang hit 15 home runs and followed that up with a 21 dinger season in 2016. This latter number was in only 318 at-bats, so if you extrapolate out to a full season, the everyday third baseman would have hit close to 35 home runs. Kang also had 29 doubles, pushing him to the top of the Pirates in slugging percentage last season at .513. In 2016, Kang had 76 strikeouts which equates to a 21.4% strikeout-to-plate-appearance ratio. This is not bad for a slugging third baseman and is consistent with his 2015 number of 21.3%. If there is a hole in his approach at the plate it is that he doesn’t hit very well on the road. His batting average over two seasons is .307 at PNC Park and .241 on the road. This is understandable for someone who doesn’t speak English and is living in the spotlight in a foreign culture. When in America, PNC Park must really seem like home for Kang.
Freese Shines on Defense, Kang not so Much
David Freese came to the Pirates with a reputation as a solid third baseman. He made 8 errors in 625+ innings of work manning third base for the Pirates which puts him slightly above average in the National League. What was a nice surprise was how seamlessly Freese picked up first base. For all the struggles that Pedro Alvarez and Josh Bell had learning the position, from the start it looked like Freese had played there his whole career. He delivered a .992 fielding percentage as a first baseman and routinely made good decisions on ground ball coverage. Even Freese’s Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) was good for 2.7 runs above average with most of this coming from his higher than average range. Freese definitely brought his glove(s) when he joined the Pirates.
Jung Ho Kang, on the other hand, has experienced the tale of two seasons with his defensive work. In his rookie season, Kang started at third base where he made only 5 errors and earned a UZR of 1.6 runs above average. However, when Jordy Mercer went down with an injury, Kang slid over to shortstop and his lack of range became apparent. His UZR of -1.8 as a shortstop in 2015 was a strong clue that Kang’s defense was better suited to third base than the middle infield. The Pirates realized this, and combined with his offseason leg surgery, decided to keep Kang at third for the 2016 season. Even with this narrowed focus, he committed 16 errors and, if he had played more often, his .938 fielding percentage would have ranked him last against qualified National League third basemen.
Intangibles and Injuries
When you look up “clubhouse leader” in the dictionary, you might find a picture of David Freese. He is widely regarded as a high-integrity guy and has been a role model wherever he goes. He has the added cachet of World Series Champion and MVP which makes his aura burn a little brighter.
Unfortunately, David Freese also has a long history of middling injuries. The most significant appears to be an ankle injury that happened near the end of the 2012 season and required follow up surgery. This injury opened up St. Louis Cardinals’ third base duties to a young utility infielder named Matt Carpenter. Freese was unceremoniously traded at the end of the next season. Even though the injury was sloughed off at the time as “no big deal”, there is a pronounced break in his before-and-after hitting performance. Freese’s slash line before his ankle injury was .296/.364/.446. After the ankle injury: .260/.331/.394. However, given that the Pirates have Freese signed for roughly $5M per year, he provides excellent value for this level of production.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]In his rookie season, Kang started at third base where he made only 5 errors and earned a UZR of 1.6 runs above average[/perfectpullquote]Jung Ho Kang suffered a terrible injury to his plant leg in September of 2015 which required off season surgery and a long rehabilitation process. By all accounts, Kang worked hard to come back strong and was always very positive about his future. Other than this freak accident, he has been amazingly sturdy during his two years with the Pirates and previously, in the Korean Baseball Organization. In the KBO, Kang played 6 straight years with over 500 plate appearances – a model of durability. Where Kang has suffered is in his off-the-field personal life. Last Summer, he was involved in an incident in Chicago where he was alleged to have committed sexual assault. The incident came to light in early July and, perhaps not coincidentally, Kang had his worst month at the plate of his entire career, batting .182 with no home runs.
More Recently, Kang was arrested in Seoul, Korea for driving under the influence and leaving the scene of a crash. Thankfully, no one seemed to be hurt in this incident, but it quickly became apparent that this was not the first time Kang has had DUI problems. Kang’s immediate future is in the hands of the Korean legal system and Kang could end up missing significant playing time or even spend time in jail. This is a huge risk for the Pirates and they have no choice but to accept that there is a chance Kang will not be with the Pittsburgh Pirates on opening day.
Other Options
The trade market for third basemen is full of interesting players with one-year contracts. Todd Frazier just re-signed with the Chicago White-Sox for one year at $12M. Even with his high strikeout rate, Frazier’s 29 home runs last season would be a welcome, although expensive, temporary replacement for Kang. Danny Valencia recently signed with the Seattle Mariners for $5.5M for one year and would also fit the bill. Neither of these players are likely to be traded but they are the mold the Pirates are trying to fill.
[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]Many fans wondered which David Freese the Pirates would get. [/perfectpullquote]Free agent third basemen are not plentiful. Boston’s Aaron Hill is still available and hits an average of 17 home runs per year. He hit 26 homers as recently as 2012 en route to a .512 slugging percentage that year. Houston’s Luis Valbuena is also available. He has averaged 14 home runs each of the last 4 years and hit 25 in 2015. Neither player offers a slash line upgrade over Jung Ho Kang but would be more-than-capable replacements should Kang not be available.
There also aren’t a lot of power hitting, MLB-ready third base options in the Pirates farm system. The only player with significant time at AAA is Jason Rogers. He could be called upon in an emergency. Ke’Bryan Hayes is hitting well with the West Virginia Black Bears, but he lacks power. You have to look deep into the farm system to find a third baseman with at least 16 home runs – in this case Eric Wood of the Altoona Curve. Hayes and Wood may contribute at some point in the future, but not in 2017.
Conclusion: Keep Kang for now, Freese trade depends on other moving parts
Jung Ho Kang has a significant black cloud swirling about him right now and his trade value will be diminished until it clears. Therefore, now is not the right time to consider a trade for Kang. Hopefully, Kang will resolve his legal issues, commit to working on his personal issues, and return to the Pittsburgh Pirates for a productive 2017 season.
David Freese is a more interesting trade option. Many viewed the two year extension as a signal the Pirates intended to keep Freese as a utility corner infielder and bench bat. Now, it seems like Freese could start almost every game, either at third or first. Freese’s future with the Pirates depends on many other moving parts and what the Pirates could ultimately get in return. If the Pirates trade Josh Bell for starting pitching, then Freese has to stay to platoon first base with John Jaso. If Kang is out for an extended period of time, Freese can only be traded if a power-hitting third baseman can be brought into the organization. If Bell stays and Kang comes back, then Freese becomes more superfluous and can be traded to a team more in need of his services. In this case, someone who can hit for power and play a decent third base would be required to fill his spot on the bench.
Given all the uncertainty, it is highly likely that both Kang and Freese will remain Pittsburgh Pirates for at least the first half of 2017.
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