The Pittsburgh Pirates are a team that must live and die by its prospects. In a new series, PBD will project each of the team’s Top 20 prospects in 2017.
Welcome to a new recurring series here at Pirates Breakdown in which we count down and project the 2017 seasons for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Top 20 prospects, ranked as per MLB Pipeline.
Today we take a look at the team’s #5 prospect, Mitch Keller.
Prospect Primer
Highly touted prospect Mitch Keller was selected in the 2014 MLB Draft out of Xavier High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Keller is a hard throwing righty with a great 11-5 curveball. The Pirates were able to lure Keller away from collegiate ball by going over-slot to get him. The Pittsburgh Pirates are high on Keller and so are many others. Keller has been receiving high marks from much of the scouts around the game over the last couple of weeks headed into the 2017 season. Let’s take a deep dive into Mitch Keller and his progression.
Strengths
One strength that sticks out when talking about Keller’s development is his fastball. When he is not trying to break the radar gun, it has nice velocity at this point in his development, sitting in the 94-95 mph range.
He will overthrow the pitch at times, but overall it is clearly his best strength. Keller’s fastball velocity spike, which occurred a couple years ago, is one of the main reasons for his ascensions thru the Pirates prospect ranks. That is complemented with a nasty 11-5 curveball that has hitters looking silly. Depending on who you speak with in the Pirates organization, some think Keller has more upside than even Tyler Glasnow. Keller’s off-speed pitches are further along in development at this point, which is at least a reasonable conclusion.
Another major strength in Keller’s game is his ability to throw strikes. In 130.1 innings pitched last season, he only handed out 19 walks. That is fantastic and if he continues to do that at higher levels, he will find similar success.
He uses a fastball, curveball, and change-up to keep hitters off balance. Another stat worth mentioning is Keller’s ability to keep the ball in the park. Keller only allowed four home runs last season in those 130.1 innings mentioned above.
Areas For Improvement
While Keller is one of the Pittsburgh Pirates top prospects, there is always room for improvement. Keller does have a tendency to get tagged for hits in bunches. Last season in 130.1 innings pitched, he gave up 101 hits. Between the West Virginia Power and Bradenton Marauders, he gave up 7 hits per 9 innings. Keller can look to try and get that number down this season, which would be a good goal to set going forward against better hitters.
Where He Starts 2017
One of the main reasons that Keller is getting so much attention is his all-around pitching game is a strong one. It is simply difficult to punch holes in his game. It is coming to a point in Keller’s career where he needs to differentiate himself in the small facets of the game. That is why it is noted above he can work on the hits per 9 that he is giving up.
Keller will likely start the year with Bradenton, but you cannot eliminate the option that he may be in Altoona before the end of the year. It will be interesting to see what approach the Pirates take with Keller this spring. Keller’s future is tough to predict as the Pirates may want to move him along quickly to avoid having to spend large amounts of money on free agents going forward.
Where He Ends 2017
It is not out of the question – though extremely unlikely – that Keller could see time at Triple-A Indianapolis this season. Personally, I will go on record making a prediction that he will see time there as long as injuries do not become a problem. If Keller continues to pitch the way he did in 2016, there is no reason to hinder this kid’s success.
The Pittsburgh Pirates need to be careful with Keller, but the sky is the limit for this prospect. We may see him throwing off the mound in Pittsburgh come 2018.
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