Pittsburgh Pirates Trend Report – McCutchen Up, Watson Down

This article series examines how various Pittsburgh Pirates players are trending and focuses on one specific player that is trending up and one that is trending down.

Although Elias Diaz is scorching the ball and John Jaso and David Freese are both doing much better at the plate, today our attention is on the upward trending Andrew McCutchen.  We also will take a closer look at the struggles of Tony Watson.  In both cases, a change of assignment may make all the difference.

Andrew McCutchen Wakes Up

Many have been eager to write Andrew McCutchen’s epitaph as he had his worst season as a pro in 2016 and a bleak start to the 2017 season.  However, since being benched on May 26, Cutch has played in 17 games (through June 13) and has reached base in all but one of those games.  In the month of June, he is slashing .405/.469/.714 (that is not a typo) and has 6 extra base hits.  He has brought his batting average for the season all the way up from .200 to .254.

The chart below shows how McCutchen’s 2017 batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have trended up since May 25^th.

How has the center fielder been able to improve so dramatically after such a long period of mediocrity?  McCutchen credits his two days off in Atlanta and long hours in the batting cage as the place where he was able to fix his swing.  To the outside observer, it appears that McCutchen is tracking the ball to the barrel of his bat much better.

Somehow during the 2016 season, McCutchen lost the ability to track the ball at the elite level to which he was accustomed.  He countered by starting his load and swing earlier and the results were a lot of ground ball outs to the left side of the infield.  In recent weeks, he is letting the ball travel deeper in the zone and hitting with authority to the opposite field again.  This likely means he is able to identify the pitch sooner and take a tiny bit longer to react.  It’s almost as if there used to be some decision making delay in his brain that is no longer there.

It’s possible that the delay had to do with the added pressure of batting third.  Now that McCutchen is hitting 6^th, he seems more relaxed and is hitting the ball hard.  Batting order position is more nuanced than you might think.  Not only is there the added pressure of being “the guy”, but in addition, when you bat 3^rd you always hit in the 1^st inning.  When you are on the road, you always hit before you play the field.  If your first at-bat does not go well, it can set the tone for the whole game.

Hitting 6th, if you happen to bat in the first inning, it’s usually because things are already going pretty well for your team and the pressure is a little lower.  If your first at-bat doesn’t go well, it feels more like part of the flow of the game versus a tone-setting experience.  When you bat lower in the order, you also usually get a chance to play in the field before you bat.  A quick look at McCutchen’s home/away splits confirms that this could be a factor.  His 2017 batting average is .304 at PNC Park and .208 on the road.

Whatever the cause, McCutchen seems to be his old self in the 6 spot and as long as he is hitting, he will stay there.  Don’t expect to see him moved back the 3 hole any time soon.

Tony Watson is not a Closer

On the other end of the spectrum is Tony Watson, who blew back to back saves in two games against the Baltimore Orioles resulting in his demotion from closer back to set up man.

I’ll bet Tony Watson is secretly thrilled.  He never seemed comfortable in the closer role.  His problem hasn’t necessarily been blown saves, but has been letting hitters get on base.  His walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) stands at 1.52 for the 2017 season.  His highest mark in this statistic was previously 1.13 in 2012, his first full season in the major leagues.  His 16.7% strikeout rate is also way down from the last three seasons where it was always above 21%.

In this case, I believe Tony Watson will return to his previous excellence as a 7^th and 8^th inning setup man.  Again, it’s easy to say there is no difference which inning you pitch, but there are actually several reasons why the 9^th inning is the toughest.

First, closers often see hitters when they are on their 4^th or sometimes 5^th at-bat of the game.  This tends to favor the hitter even though they are facing a new pitcher.  They have seen just about every kind of pitch that day.  This can be a bigger problem if the setup reliever has the same handedness and is actually a better pitcher than the closer – as is the case with Felipe Rivero.  Imagine a hitter facing Rivero in the 7^th and then facing Watson in the 9^th – Watson will seem like a slower version of Rivero.   The ideal scenario is to flip these two so the hitters see successively tougher pitchers.

Second, when you are the home team and you go to bat in the 9^th inning down a run or two, you are going to be looking for fastballs and swinging for the fences.  Every hitter knows that a home run can tie or win the game.  This is amped up even more when one or two runners reach base (remember Watson’s WHIP problem?).  Watson has been especially susceptible to this phenomenon as evidenced by his home ERA of 2.20 versus his away ERA of 6.75.  Watson has given up 4 home runs on the road versus only 2 at home.

A return to 7th or 8th inning duties will alleviate some of this pressure and should normalize Watson’s home/away splits.

Trending Up and Down

Andrew McCutchen has been able to translate his improved swing mechanics and lower batting order slot into great results at the plate in the last few weeks.  He has earned his spot as the trending up Pittsburgh Pirate.  Tony Watson has struggled mightily in the closer role and is the most obvious player who is trending down.  A return to the setup role should bring Watson back to the success he enjoyed in previous seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates.