With pitchers and catchers reporting in less than a month, the MLB offseason is in its waning hours. Manager Clint Hurdle and the Pittsburgh Pirates have some decisions to make in terms of their batting order.
With Andrew McCutchen out the door and Josh Harrison seemingly on his way as well, the Pittsburgh Pirates have lost two major contributors in their batting order. The top of the order is heavily hit and now the Pirates have some changes to make in 2018.
The following figures to be the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Opening Day batting order…
[table id=268 /]Note, that in these projections, it will be assumed that Harrison is not a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day. Though he is still a member of the organization, Harrison does not figure to be around much longer because he has requested a trade. This suggests that Adam Frazier will play second base and Sean Rodriguez will play left field, although it could go vice-versa very often.
It’s certainly obvious that this lineup is a far cry from the 2013-15 playoff teams. It has many holes before it can generate playoff-worthy offense.
Here are the three biggest areas confronting manager Clint Hurdle in regards to his Opening Day batting order.
Protection for Bell
Josh Bell is taking center stage in more ways than one with the Pirates now that Andrew McCutchen is gone. As a young productive player that is under team control and has not had any character problems (*cough* Marte *cough*), Bell is the perfect candidate to become the next face of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Not only that, but he should also take on a more pivotal role in the middle of the order. Last season, Bell batted fourth more than anyone else. That won’t change in 2018. His role won’t change except that he’ll be asked to do even more.
That’s because there’s not much protection for Bell in the lineup. With Polanco likely hitting directly behind Bell, it’ll be problematic to get consistent production. It only goes downhill after that as inconsistency and questions plague the batters following Bell. How that group of hitters does will have an important influence on how Bell performs.
Heavy drop-off in production
Without McCutchen and Harrison, the Pirates are losing players that had a 122 and 104 wRC+ in 2017, respectively. The only other two players to have a triple-digit wRC+ were Bell (108) and David Freese (100). However, the Pirates have said that they want Colin Moran to be the starter at third base, not Freese. If Moran produces, this makes Freese very valuable off the bench.
As hot-and-cold as Freese could be in 2017, he was the Pirates most efficient batter at getting on base, leading the way with a 11.5-percent walk percentage and .368 on-base percentage. With the way this lineup looks to shape up, Freese won’t come close to his 503 plate appearances in 2017. While that added rest could bring out better production from him, a new full-time player will need to find ways to get on base as often if not more than Freese did.
With McCutchen gone, Sean Rodriguez doesn’t figure to move into the Opening Day lineup, but a Harrison trade would almost certainly warrant it. An offseason injury limited Rodriguez’s availability in 2017 and he wasn’t productive in his 39 games as a Pirate (.168/.255/.274). His versatility makes him valuable, since he has played every position in his career except catcher and pitcher, but his bat needs to improve.
Left-handed power
The Pirates only have three hitters that are full-time left-handed hitters in Polanco, Frazier and Moran. Bell is obviously a switch hitter and should be the most productive lefty in the order. He might also be the only one to pack a significant power punch with his bat. As a rookie, Bell slugged 26 home runs and had a .466 slugging percentage, both second-best on the team to McCutchen. His .211 isolated power led the team.
With the three true lefties, the lefties aren’t as effective at collecting extra bases. Polanco (.140) was sixth-best among Pirates batters in isolate power with at least 300 plate-appearances and Frazier (.123) was seventh. Those numbers are considered average to below average. In terms of slugging percentage, neither were fantastic either (Polanco: .391, Frazier: .399).
Polanco did hit 22 home runs in 2016, so the potential is there to add more pop, but he’ll have to stay healthy and be more consistent at the plate. The 26-year old only had 411 plate appearances last season after back-to-back years with at least 587.
As for Frazier, his job isn’t to hit home runs, but a couple more extra-base hits would be welcome. As a batter regularly at the top of the order, Frazier’s ability to get to second base and beyond will make the middle of the lineup’s job a lot easier.
Moran is a bit of an unknown since he’s never played for the Pirates before. Acquired in the Gerrit Cole trade with the Houston Astros, Moran only has 37 plate appearances to his name and one major-league home run. Moran did increase his home run numbers in each of the last four seasons in the minors. Not only that, but Moran also drastically increased his slugging percentage from .368 in 2016 to .543 in 2017 thanks to an adjustment in his swing.
Steamer projections had Moran at nine home runs in 2018, but their estimations came out before he was traded to the Pirates. If Moran hits somewhere around 20 home runs, that would surely be considered a success for him.
Full of questions
The Pittsburgh Pirates won’t make the 2018 postseason barring a miracle. Nonetheless, this season is about building towards the future. Small victories like getting players to perform better than their projections and prospects developing into major-leaguers would be worthwhile takeaways from this coming season.
As a result, the Pirates hope to get the most of their lineup. However, to make up for the loss of McCutchen and likely loss of Harrison, they’ll need others to step up.
Photo credit – Daniel Decker
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