The Nine players most important to the Pirates season

As the Pittsburgh Pirates 2018 season opens I see nine players who will be key to the season

First I will briefly look at the players we pretty well know how they will perform.

Bullpen– Felipe Rivero is very good, despite his opening game problems, and there are enough arms that we should see the Bucs have an effective pen.

Bench– The bench will consist of Elias Diaz, Sean Rodriquez, David Freese and Adam Frazier.  The bench lacks power but should be adequate.  Probably will add another bat after the opening series, perhaps Jose Osuna.

Catcher–Francisco Cervelli and Diaz will be catchers and they are adequate.

Third base-Colin Moran will start and he has limited MLB experience but should produce as well as last season’s third basemen.

Shortstop–Jordy Mercer is the main SS and his past seasons tell us to expect more of the same.

Second Base-Assuming Josh Harrison remains with team, we know what to expect from him.

Now the nine we do not know what to expect from:

Starting Rotation We know the five starters—Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, and Chad Kuhl.

Nova—Will the Pirates get the 2017 first half Nova, the 2017 second half Nova or something in between?  First half he was 9-6 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP. Second half he was 2-8 with 5.03 ERA and a 1.613 WHIP.

Taillon-Taillon also had severe first and second half splits.  He was 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in the first half and 3-5 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.606 WHIP in the second.  We do have a reason for Taillon’s split since he had surgery in season.  Regardless of how young or in shape you are, surgery takes a while to recover from.  Taillon should be fully recovered going into this season.  The question is whether we will see a full season of 2017’s first half Taillon.

Williams-Williams finished the season well.  On August 23 he threw eight shutout innings. His next start he allowed two runs in five innings, then seven shutout innings, followed by four runs in 4.2 innings. His last two starts were one run in frames and one run in six.  If he can build on that performance, he can be a solid number three or four starter.

Kuhl -Kuhl moved forward the second half of last season.  He was 3-6 with a 4.96 ERA the first half and was 5-5 with a 3.63 ERA the second half.  The Pirates need him to pitch a full season like his second half.

Musgrove-He was more effective out the pen last season than as starter but in 2016 he had a 4.05 ERA as a starter. It’s hard to know what to expect from Musgrove, especially since his spring training got off to a late start thanks to some should discomfort.

The remaining four are position players:

Josh Bell– Bell had a very good rookie season.  The reason I put him on this lost is that you never know how a sophomore season will go.

Starling Marte– Marte was suspended half the season and his high in games played is 153 in 2015.  The Pirates need another 2015 type season from Marte in which he hit .287 with 19 HR and 81 RBI

Gregory Polanco-Polanco had problems staying on the field.  If he can stay healthy and hits 20 home runs he will be a big plus.

Corey Dickerson– Dickerson, who the Pirates traded for in spring training, is the third outfielder.  He had some up and down splits with Tampa Bay in 2017.  In the first half of the season he hit .312 with 17 home runs, 42 RBI and a .903 OPS.  In the second half he hit .241 with 10 home runs, 20 RBI and a .690 OPS.

These nine players have the ability to have a very good season but lack a track record to build expectation on.  If they all have an average to above average season the Pirates should be around .500.

If several of them have excellent seasons I could see the team winning 83 to 85 games. If they perform below average the team will probably finish with wins in the 70s.

Of course it also possible one or more the players we expect to have a certain season from can play significantly above or below expectations.  For example, Josh Harrison has a career BA of .281 so we expect him to hit .270 to .290 but he hit .315 in 2014.  He also had a career high in home runs last season with 16. He could fall back this season or hit 20?

Tyler Glasnow could enter the rotation and dominate hitters like he did in the minors.

In other words, expect the unexpected from this Pirates team in 2018.

By Joe Luchok

Joe is a guest columnist to Pirates Breakdown.