Can the Pirates control the run game in 2018?

One potentially undervalued aspect of the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-0 start to the 2018 season is that they haven’t allowed a stolen base yet.

It’s a very small sample size, but it was nice to see Francisco Cervelli throw out Detroit’s Jose Iglesias trying to steal on Sunday.

Opposition’s caught stealings have been a rare thing the past couple of seasons and if the Pirates are to surprise some people this season, they have to do a better job in controlling the oppositions running game.

With the game already taking a tend to hitting the ball out of the ballpark, teams aren’t running as much as they may have in the past, but preventing team’s from taking the extra base at will could be the difference between a few wins and losses in the long run.

Let’s take a look at where the Pirates can improve?

The Numbers

Last year was another not-so-pretty season in controlling the run game.

Pirates’ catchers threw out only a total of 28 of 123 potential base stealers. That’s a 77 percent success rate for the opposition, which is well below average for the Pirates as they were the fifth easiest team in baseball to run on in 2017,

Truth be told it is a bit surprising that teams didn’t run more against the Bucs.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The 95 steal allowed was the ninth most in baseball and the 28 total caught stealings were well below league average.[/perfectpullquote]

A total of 75 of those stolen bases came at second base, as did 27 caught stealings.

Third base was a bigger problem as Pirates’ catchers threw out only one potential base stealer at third base all season long. That was the worst mark in the majors.

So who’s to blame?

Catchers

Let’s start with the guys behind the dish.

It take two to tango so the pitchers are part of the blame, but the catchers have to do a better job of throwing the ball.

That’s the obvious, but is it really possible?

Cervelli has never been good at throwing out base runners.

Last season he threw out 11 of 55 potential base stealers. That’s a 20 percent clip and is right in line with his career averages.

Throughout his career Cervelli has only thrown runners out at a 21 percent rate.

As a Pirate, Cervelli has only thrown out 56 of 268 base stealers, which amounts to just 20.8 percent.

It’s more than likely he will always be below the league average in terms of throwing out runners.

Elias Diaz could be a different story.

Throughout his brief MLB career, Diaz has gunned down runners at a 30 percent rate. It’s a very small sample size though as he has thrown out nine of 28 career runners.

Diaz being the backup should be an improvement as Chris Stewart only threw runners out at a 23 percent rate as a Pirate.

Throw in the fact that Cervelli is healthy and the Pirates two catchers have a chance to have a decent season offensively and defensively.

Pitchers

For the catchers to have a better year, the pitchers have to do their part at holding runners on.

That’s not as easy as it sounds for a young staff like the Pirates. Executing their pitches and hitting their spots usually is priority number one and controlling the run game often become an afterthought.

Gone is Gerrit Cole as he never held runner on very well. Last season alone 17 of 19 base stealers stole with him on the mound.

That leaves the following group of pitchers, and for this column I focused on just the guys who could get starts this year: Steven Brault (2 SB’s, 0 CS), Tyler Glasnow (15 SB’s, 8 CS), Chad Kuhl (9 SB’s, 3 CS), Ivan Nova (10 SB’s, 3 CS) and Trevor Williams (7 SB’s, 3 CS).

Looking at that, surprising Glasnow had the best rate of caught stealings when he was on the mound at 34.7 percent and Williams was also not bad at 30 percent.  The others all need some improvement in that area.

You may have noticed I left Jameson Taillon off the list.

That’s because he was another big surprise, but not in a good way as all 15 potential base stealers against him last season were successful. As Taillon grows as a pitcher, you would have to think he would do a better job of holding runners on. The same could be said for all of the Pirates starters with the exception of Nova.

For what it’s worth, I also looked at how Joe Musgrove held runners last season and only four runners tried to steal on him in 109.1 innings pitched. Two of them were thrown out.

The Pirates pitchers have to do a better job of holding runners on in 2018. That goes without saying but if they do and the catchers can throw guys out at a better clip, the Pirates may finally start to do a better job in stopping the stolen base.