Indians Minor Leaguers on the Brink of Free Agency

While not the headline topic that Major League free agency is, minor league free agency can greatly effect the look of a season. In general, a player can be forced to sign a basic contract (or they can leave the minor league system for at least a year) with the team that initially drafted them up to six times before they become minor league free agents. This only effects players before they sign a major league deal, so simply being on the 40 man MLB roster protects a team from losing the player.

In general, this leaves players who were drafted in 2012 or signed as international free agents before then who have not been added to the 40 man roster yet. For example, Eric Stamets is safe because he is on the 40 man despite going into his 8th year and Sean Brady is also safe because he will be going into his seventh.

If a team has looked at a player for seven years and still hasn’t added them to the 40 man, there is a good chance that they never will and, because of this, very few minor league free agents resign with their old team. Of last year’s group of 22, only Juan De La Cruz (now the hitting coach for the Arizona League Indians) and Michael Martinez returned.

This year, there are eight players who have yet to make the Major Leagues in any capacity who have been with the team at least seven years and should be eligible for free agency at the end of the year. We’ll break them down by the likeliness of them sticking around in Cleveland for 2019 and beyond.

Definite Keepers

There are two players on this year’s list that should be a top priority for Cleveland to keep around. First, Shao-Ching Chiang is a right handed ground ball specialist who originally signed as an international free agent out of Taiwan back in 2011. Because he was only 17 then, he’s still just 24 despite being in the system so long and he has only gotten better with age. He missed most of his first two seasons with Tommy John surgery, but has been a solid starter ever since, particularly in Lynchburg in 2017 and Akron this year. While he is never likely to break into the Indians rotation, he could potentially pitch for another team who’s rotation isn’t quite as deep, making him a valuable trade chip.

Personally, I think he’d make an excellent Dan Otero style reliever as he has an extremely low walk rate and a high chance at a double play against any hitter. In any case, he’s valuable enough to the team that they should try to keep him around.

The other pitcher worth keeping is Kieran Lovegrove, the first professional South African baseball player (although he won’t be the first in the Majors thanks to Gift Ngoepe). Originally a starter, Lovegrove has transformed into a dominant reliever over the last few years and now should be considered not only one of the team’s top relief prospects, but one that is near MLB ready. While many wonder what the Indians will do without Cody Allen and Andrew Miller next year, Lovegrove could be part of that solution.

He has some control issues (4.7 BB/9 both this year and in his career), but has hit 99 on the radar gun this year and increased his K/9 to 10, up about one strike out per nine each of the last two years and much higher than his early career rate of under 7.0. Despite the obvious talent, the Indians had the chance to add him to the 40 man and active rosters, but chose to activate the 30 year old Jon Edwards instead, sending Lovegrove back to AA after a short AAA stint. This decision doesn’t bode well to them adding him to the 40 man after the season ends.

Potentially Worth It

Like Chiang and Lovegrove, Mitch Brown is a 24 year old pitcher who began his career as a starter. Like Lovegrove and the two pitchers to follow, he is now a reliever and has been extremely successful in that role.

After a long time mired in mediocrity, Brown was converted mid-season 2016 and as a reliever had a 14.6 K/9 with a .159/.333/.159 batting line against him. In his first full season as a reliever (2017) things didn’t look much different than they had as a starter, but in 2018 things looked up again and he finished the year with a 1.99 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and just one home run allowed in 45.1 innings.

However, he also had a 7.1 BB/9 and doesn’t have the electric stuff that the Indians are often looking for in a reliever. My prediction is that the Indians will not add him to the 40 man roster, but could attempt to resign him following the season.

The next right handed reliever in question is the bearded behemoth known as Josh Martin. Unlike the other pitchers, he’s already 28, so it’s possible that his recent success in Columbus from 2016 through 2018 has been his ceiling and a function of his advanced age and extreme AAA experience. Even so, he could probably put up good enough numbers in the majors to be a long reliever, particularly considering his low walk rate and fair strike out rate.

Finally, there is the 26 year old, left handed Anderson Polanco. He was a good reliever until he was converted to starter in Lake County in 2015. He struggled as a starter and had Tommy John surgery in 2016 that cost him some of that year and most of 2017. He’s now back in a relief role, although he had a rough season in Lynchburg. I’ve never been extremely high on Polanco, but the Indians have obviously seen great value in him to this point. He is another who could potentially be re-signed after free agency, but will most likely be gone by next year.

Let Them Go

Starting with the most valuable and ending with the least, Joe Sever is a 28 year old who was drafted in 2012 as a second baseman, but started only 29 of his 712 minor league games there. He has become a pretty reliable utility man and a serviceable defender at first and second with significant time spent at third as well with some time spent in the corner outfield spots.

He has spent some of the last two seasons in Columbus and the last four in Akron, but has never hit well, particularly with insignificant power as a first baseman. The Indians should have plenty of quality players to take the at bats as corner infield and outfield utility man and won’t lose any MLB potential with Sever, so he should be allowed to leave the system.

Next up is fan favorite (as much as fans learn to love minor leaguers) Nellie Rodriguez. From 2014 through 2016 he hit at least 20 home runs each year and it looked like he could be the next Jesus Aguilar. However, while Aguilar continued his success through AAA and ultimately with the Brewers, Rodriguez saw his slugging percent dip dramatically in 2017 when he first joined the Clippers (.170/.271/.342 line). It improved some this season, but the writing was on the wall when the Indians signed Yonder Alonso and Rodriguez was pincered out of AAA by Alonso on top and Bobby Bradley below him.

Now, Bradley (who is already on the 40 man roster) is in AAA and looking to hit the majors next year with Rodriguez dumped back to AA to make room. There aren’t many good options below Rodriguez at 1B, so the Indians may be interested in retaining him as a fill in until the lower level players like Mitch Reeves advance, but he isn’t worth a 40 man spot and Anthony Miller and Emmanuel Tapia could fill that gap just as well, despite not being major league options either. Expect 2019 to be the first season since 2012 without Rodriguez for the Indians.

Finally, there is 27 year old right handed starter Michael Peoples. He was a 14th round pick in 2012 and has stayed in the starting rotation since his second year in the system. Never a real prospect, he has eaten innings with the best of them, throwing 660 over the last seven seasons. He missed much time this year with injury, so it is an unfortunate way to go out, but his 4.20 career ERA and 6.4 K/9 make him unlikely to be signed by any team this off-season during minor league free agency.