It is no secret that the Indians needed to add some offensive muscle after the 2015 season ended. Fans cried out for a “right-handed power bat” like their lives depended on it, hoping some tweet or Facebook post would touch a nerve in the front office and inspire a game changer. To be honest, power is important but it isn’t everything. The tribe has stepped up their collection of righties, but the power added can be debated when looking at the basic statistics most avid fans understand. To try to see the thought process behind the Indians signing someone like Rajai Davis or Mike Napoli you need to get a bit deeper in the cold sea of baseball numerals.
Most people can figure out a player’s batting average (H/AB), slugging percent (TB/AB) and home run totals and understand what those numbers are saying about that player. On the surface, someone with many home runs may sound like the perfect fit for an offense that needs power; like the Indians. However, that does not tell you what kind of hitter he is, which is key to where you put them in the batting order.
Contact rate is relatively new, but simple to figure out. (At bats, minus strikeouts, divided by at bats) [(AB-K’s)/AB=CR] Do not confuse this with “contact percentage”, which focuses more on swings per plate appearance. It does exactly what it tells you it does; determines the percentage a batter makes contact in an at bat.
There are people who believe that contact rates are not an important stat to follow when judging someone, and depending on how you look at the numbers, those people can be correct. It is a vague statistic by itself. But when mixing it in with other numbers; BABIP, strikeouts, RBI’s and batting average, just to name a few, a bigger picture starts to emerge. A fingerprint designated to that player, patterns of trending up and down, and a glimpse deeper into what he can bring to the table for his team.
With Indians left fielder, Michael Brantley expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, finding a solid outfielder and an effective bat was on most fans minds and probably that of the Indians front office as well. As I went through a few different offensive rotations, it proved harder and harder to fill that third spot in the order. It is not as if a manager can just throw anyone into a spot and have him fit and hit on command. (We all wish it were that easy…)
Back to the batting order! To accomplish this, I broke down their numbers, found the positive trends leading up to all nine’s best seasons, and matched them with which position they hit best at in those seasons.
A good offense is built on someone who has speed, a high OBP (on base percentage) and (this goes for every spot in the lineup) a solid batting average in that spot that proves they are comfortable there.
1. Rajai Davis
I chose Rajai Davis to lead off based on a few things. Between the first and ninth spot, he would fit more needs at the top. The other choices were Jason Kipnis or Francisco Lindor, but that left a question on who would bat third. In his best season that I tracked (2014), Davis hit .290 leading off, though was less productive going by average with a .239 in 2015 (overall .259 over 335 games). From 2012 through 2015 he had 145 steals, only being caught 38 times (26%). His contact rate in 2014 was a good 84%, standing out from the other percentages of 80 and lower. For the same season he had an OBP of .320 with an identical .320 BABIP. As Cleveland fans, we have seen Davis’ speed working against us, so the hope is to see his lead off skills end up paying off FOR Cleveland in the coming season.
The two and three spots should be focused on getting the runner on into scoring position, preferably with a high amount of extra base hits; a clutch hitter, and a history of smart base running; more steals than caught stealing.
2. Francisco Lindor
I put Lindor second and Kipnis third. With Lindor there should be little question as to why. He hit in the two-hole 86% of the time in his rookie year, leading him to second place for MLB’s Rookie of the Year Award. Finding major league patterns was not necessary in his case due to only playing a single season, but that little bit of playtime with his impressively mature attitude and natural ability to play the game gives me little to worry about in 2016. With 21 extra base hits and nine home runs hit behind the lead, and 12 stolen bases he fits a solid two-spot.
3. Jason Kipnis
Kipnis was less of a statistical decision (I say this lightly), and more trying to figure out who would be best to fill Michael Brantley’s spot. Of course I looked over his numbers as I did with everyone else, but being somewhat of a backbone for the squad, I felt his level of leadership and experience hitting third gave me enough to assume he would help the Indians best behind Lindor. Batting third, Kipnis hits a solid .278 and .270 with men in scoring. In his best season (2013), Kipnis hit 27 extra base hits in this position, 46 throughout his career.
Between both of them, it is a good one-two punch. They are skilled in getting on base, and getting runs home with a combined 143 RBI’s (Lindor 44/Kipnis 99) in their respected positions.
The cleanup is self-explanatory; power, higher hard contact percentage, 20-30+ home runs a season, and a confident, solid swing. (In this case, it is also the designated hitter.)
4. Carlos Santana
This spot I had the most trouble with, going back and forth between Carlos Santana and new signing Mike Napoli. After a week of writing out top nines of different combinations, and scribbling notes to compare the two, my conclusion for the cleanup spot is Carlos Santana. Like everyone else, I started with figuring out his contact rate, finding that his last four years generally match with how his CRs trend. In 2012 and 13 they were both 80%, while having the two better years of the few. 2014 and 2015 were 77% and 78% CRs, trending down, but both with .231 batting orders to end those seasons. What I found interesting about him was that his best year by average, walks, BABIP and men in scoring was 2013, but going by a simple statistic like number of home runs (27) and RBI (85), his best was 2014. This leads to the question, what does one consider power for a player in a “power position? Home runs or making contact with runners in scoring? Both are needed without a doubt, but in Santana’s case, 2013 and 2014 numbers give both options. In 2013, his average with RISP was a high .385, but with 75 RBI, whereas in 2014 he had a lower RISP average of .243 with a higher 85 RBI. Overall, he is the better option, but leaves me curious on what type of power hitter Cleveland will get from him in 2016.
The five is a combination of contact/speed with decent power. Like the second-wave cleanups, with the ability to lead off the bottom of the order.
5. Mike Napoli
Since I put Santana in the cleanup roll, Mike Napoli seemed to fit well behind him in the five spot. The Five too me is like a less extravagant cleanup hitter, or the second wave cleanup hitter. He’s the one out of the two mentioned to bring the power. His contact rates are sort of low, 60’s to low 70’s, but his lowest; at 62% in 2013, stuck out to me in that it didn’t look like it matched the rest of his numbers that year. 92 RBIs, 23 home runs, a .257 with RISP and a .256 average hitting fifth with more than half of those RBI (52) from that slot. Overall, there is a single point between his average in the two spots I wanted to put him in, but in 2013, there’s a difference of 100 games, 15 home runs, and 49 RBI.
The sixth through the ninth guys are a mix of proving themselves, working back into the order, or sometimes an unconventional bat to surprise the defense. At times, they can be the players with lesser run production than the top of the order, though I would still consider them a collective workhorse for the offense.
6. Yan Gomes
Yan Gomes would usually be the number seven spot guy, but I want to keep him as close to the power center as I can. He is a bat that almost glues the two sides of the batting order together and keeps them cohesive and working. In 2015 when Gomes was injured early in the season, many expected his return to add a fire in the Indians top nine, and without him would be noticeably lacking. In the years he has played with Cleveland; when healthy, Gomes has been a high average hitter, with a .284 BA between 2013 and 14. He is known to have sparks of power with runners in scoring, though not enough to comfortably make him a power hitter.
7. Giovanny Urshela
Giovanny Urshela’ s rookie year was 2015, and though I saw some impressive things, though most were more defensive than offensive, I expect a bigger year in 2016 from him while hoping to avoid the “sophomore slump.” He’s batting in a spot between someone who when getting hot at the plate, sets the place on fire; Lonnie, and another that’s newer to the team but made his mark in his short play time in 2015; Almonte, which was my biggest reasoning for putting him there. If he can stay healthy through the next season, the two bats around him might be able to jump start the player who didn’t hit below a .280 BABIP from high to triple A.
8. Lonnie Chisenhall
Going to skip to Lonnie Chisenhall hitting eighth. He is a bit of a question mark, though after coming back to the majors in 2015 with the idea that that would be his last chance to prove something, he started to look like a completely new player. Lonnie is not the most consistent bat. When he gets hot he gets hot and when he doesn’t he really doesn’t, but being moved to right field seemed to fit all the right places in order to get the best out of him. Personally, 2015 was a spark of what to expect for next season, though looking at his numbers, 2014 was his most productive year; 79% CR with a .280 BA, .328 BABIP, and his lowest IFFB% at .7.5% with 30 extras. In both years, he’s brought a little bit of everything to the order, fitting my idea of an eight spot.
9. Abraham Almonte
Between Giovanny Urshela and Abraham Almonte, both can hit their best in the seven and nine spots, but I think it comes down to who would be the better lead off for the top of the order coming up? After last season, I chose Almonte to be the tail end hitter. There’s a lot of nervousness around him that his performance when arriving in Cleveland in 2015 wasn’t just a “New Jersey hot streak.” In his few months playing here, he hit five home runs; one being a grand slam, six stolen bases, and 14 extra base hits all in the course of less than two months and his jump in hard contact percentage between the first and second half of 2015 backs up that hot streak (13.8% – 28.9%). He brought a fire that was needed to the Indians offence, giving them arguably his best season. If he can pull off a 2015 style season this coming year, it will give the Indians a very much-needed strength in a position where there sometimes isn’t any.
Normally, many would assume that the end of the offense would be the less effective bats, though I disagree. It is not about the good side and the bad side, it is about figuring out where your players will hit best and how to get the most runs in possible.
It was a curious, enticing, pain in the ass trying to figure all this out while learning new numbers and different ways to apply someone’s numbers. Right or wrong, I would be comfortable defending my position to anyone. What has me more curious is how close my batting order will match up to the starting nine when camp breaks for the regular season.
With the Indians, it is going to take a trusting offense behind their filthy pitching to break away from the ALC pack. All teams have the same goal to strengthen their weaknesses and add support all parts still hot from the previous season. Right now, all teams in the American League Central Division seem to be on an even playing field, even after the Detroit Tigers signing of Justin Upton. I expect a tight race, but along with my idea that a solid bullpen will separate the post season teams from the losing season teams, a well built wall of impenetrable force at the plate programed to send guys off and bring them home will make all the difference. Whether you understand the numbers or not, I hope that after reading through this there’s a new understanding for the importance of each position that steps into the batter’s box and a respect for the numbers that put them there.
For some people, the simple mathematical formula 6+4+3=2 can make all the sense in the world. The majority of the universe however will never make the connection between the answer to that and the result of a double play. People do not need to know what these numbers are or how simple or complex they can be. All the fans need to know is that these numbers will put the best product on the field and allow them to watch runs come home and home run bombs land on the Home Run Porch.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
