There are two weekends left to go in the American Athletic Conference 2016 baseball season. As it stands now, Tulane leads East Carolina by mere percentage points and Cincinnati by a game and a half. With each league member holding six games worth of ammunition, all eyes have been set on knocking the Green Wave from their perch atop the league standings.
Though all eight AAC teams have at least a theoretical mathematical shot at the 2016 crown, only a handful of teams are likely to make a serious run at regular season honors. It all depends on what the current leader, Tulane, does from here on in.
[table id=17 /]Cincy game ends early in a tie… AAC standings are going to be gnarly this year. https://t.co/Dvcd05Fpcw
— not Fear the Wave (@FearTheWaveBlog) May 1, 2016
Tulane will start this weekend with a three game set against Memphis (16-33). After that, the Greenies head to Houston (28-19) for a weekend road series against the Cougars. Odds are that the Green Wave will win their series against the downtrodden Tigers, who have lost eight of their last 10, and they should win at least one game–for arguments sake–against Houston who have won seven of their last 10. It might be safe to assume that Tulane has decent odds to finish 14-8 in conference play–which would mean they would go 3-3 over the next two weeks. But, since we’re talking about future events, let’s take a look at all of the most credible scenarios.
If Tulane went 2-4:
Fourth-placed Houston and/or Connecticut would need to go 6-0 over their last six to win the conference. Not terrible odds for UConn as they’ll be playing conference bottom-feeders: South Florida and Central Florida. But not great odds for Houston who’ll be playing on the road at Cincinnati and home against Tulane in the season series finale. Houston and Connecticut would need Tulane to finish the season in a complete shambles–losing five or more of their remaining six games–and would still need to be the beneficiary of a ton of help to take home AAC regular season honors.
Actually, Cincy, #Tulane, UConn and East Carolina are all within a game of each other. One of those 4 will win AAC.
— Guerry Smith (@Guersmith) May 1, 2016
If Tulane went 3-3:
Third place Cincinnati would need to go 5-1 or better over their remaining schedule to win the conference. Seeing as the Bearcats are playing Houston (7-3 in their last 10) it might be easier for. They would also have to beat Memphis (likely in a sweep) something not completely unimaginable. Though, Cincinnati has yet to sweep any other conference series so far this season and Memphis has yet to be swept at home in a conference series this year. Cincinnati would likely need Tulane to get swept by Houston and lose at least one game against Memphis in order for them to have a realistic shot at the title.
Cincinnati lost 12-1 to UCF today and is fading fast. Definitely a 2-team race for AAC title between #Tulane and ECU.
— Guerry Smith (@Guersmith) May 7, 2016
If Tulane went 4-2:
East Carolina would need to go 5-1 or better to win the conference. East Carolina faces two teams in UCF and USF–both without a winning record over their last ten games–who could easily be swept if the right situation presented itself. The Pirates picked up their first conference sweep just last weekend against a difficult Connecticut squad. So, it could happen. In fact, Tulane might be the one who needs to take notice of the Pirates’ remaining schedule. It could very well be the magic number for the Green Wave if they are to hold off all challengers in the remaining weeks of conference and regular season play.
If Tulane went 5-1:
No other team would be able to match the Green Wave’s conference record and they would win the AAC regular season title outright. That being said, Tulane still has to produce such a record and do so while playing poor, bemoaned Memphis but then go on the road against Houston and take the series two to one, or better. Houston will likely enter next weekend with a confidence-building series victory over Cincinnati (who has fallen into disrepair of late) and will be looking to shake up the AAC standings with an upset victory over the Green Wave. If that should happen then Tulane would finish no better than 15-7 (4-2 in remaining weeks) in conference play–which could very easily leave the door open for East Carolina.
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