The 2013 Tampa Bay Lightning season followed the same trajectory as Guy Boucher’s tenure as coach of the Lightning did. They jumped out of the gates to a 6-1 start, which raised the fan-base’s expectations, unreasonably, much the same as the march to the Eastern Conference Final did in Boucher’s first season as head coach. The subsequent 12-25-4 mark elucidated the many flaws of the Lightning: poor goaltending, an aging and slow defense and the lack of consistent interest from key Lightning veterans (other than Martin St. Louis). It was this disconnect from Guy Boucher that led to the breaking point in the long losing streak: Two embarrassing losses that featured two consecutive 4-0 first period deficits, he last of which was a perplexing loss to Ottawa, which led to the sacking of the head coach. (Photo/Susan Ferlita)
A glimmer of hope on the horizon for the Lightning is a top three pick in a draft where there are seemingly four sure-fire prospects. However, this pending addition is not a short-term fix, especially for a team that still has several glaring needs and potential cap concerns. New coach Jon Cooper and general manager Steve Yzerman have quite the puzzle ahead of them. Let’s take a look at how they should address the roster as it is currently constructed.
First, the facts: as the Lightning are currently constructed, they will have a payroll of roughly $61 million for the 2013/2014 season and with an expected cap of $64.3 million, the Bolts will have $3.3 million in cap space going into this offseason. This does not give the team much room to add potential free agents in what has widely been described as a free agent class lacking in depth.
There are several untouchables: Steven Stamkos ($7.5 million), Martin St. Louis ($5.625 million), Matt Carle ($5.5 million) and Victor Hedman ($4 million) anchor the forwards and defensemen, respectively, providing much of the production and leadership. There are several others that are unlikely to move but we’ll begin the analysis with those that are under management’s microscope.
The first question is what to do with Ryan Malone ($4.5 million cap hit for two more years), which has been discussed in detail here on LightningShout. Malone’s consistent injury plagued campaigns and ballooning salary have likely dried up any potential trade value. The choice boils down to keeping him and hoping he stays healthy next season for a push to the division crown, or to buy him out. Teams can buy out two players between June 16 and June 30 for a prorated amount of the remainder of their contract (for players over 26, the amount is 2/3 of the remaining value of the contract). Buying out Malone would only reduce his cap number from $4.5 million to $2.833 million (saving $1.667 million per year) for the next two seasons and to $833,333 for the subsequent two years, which isn’t THAT much savings, especially in the short-term. However, Malone doesn’t fit Cooper’s system of a dedicated, two-way game, and sources close to the Lightning say they are fed up with his inability to stay healthy. This would be a tough call for Yzerman, but the ultimate, and correct decision is to bite the bullet and buy him out.
Mattias Ohlund has likely played his last game as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning as he struggles to rehab from significant surgeries on both knees. Ohlund still has three years left at $3.607 million per season and is ineligible for a buyout because he is injured. However, because he signed his current contract before the age of 35, if he is forced to retire due to injury, the Bolts can pay him the reminder of his contract while not having the burden of his $3.607 million count against the cap number. Recent interviews with Ohlund have indicated that he may be resigning to the fact he won’t be able to play in the NHL again. Perhaps the Lightning can offer him a front-office position to sweeten the deal for him to retire; It’s a good bet that Yzerman can pull this off during the offseason.
Mathieu Garon is certain not to return in goal with Bishop and Lindback in the fold. Pierre-Cedric Labrie is unlikely to return, at least in an NHL-contributing role. Forward Benoit Pouliot is a more interesting case as an RFA. He showed flashes of his potential but did struggle with consistency and poor timing for penalties. Yzerman will have to weigh the readiness of Brett Connolly in his analysis of Pouliot. If Connolly has taken the requisite steps, he could step into Pouliot’s role at a bargain price of $1.633 million. With the development of Connolly at the end of last year, Yzerman will let Pouliot walk. JT Brown showed much promise in his initial audition with the Lightning and after his broken collarbone; he played well in this year’s push to repeat as Calder Cup champions. Yzerman will likely resign the RFA Brown, possibly at a discount due to his injury but likely at a modest increase, three years, $1.5 million. RFA Defenseman Keith Aulie is virtually assured to return due to his significant growth this season. A modest raise is likely, three years at $850,000 annually. Sami Salo will have one year at $3.750 million left on his contract and will likely be a deadline trade candidate if the Bolts tank early in the season.
With these changes and contract assumptions made, the Tampa Bay will be at roughly $59.7 million with the potential for a full roster to already be in place. This would give Yzerman more flexibility to pursue a trade (though it’s unlikely he would want to add salary). In any trade, the goal would be to get younger and faster on the blue line, adding a potential top six defensemen in exchange for forward depth.
Yzerman faces a complex challenge this offseason, with the need to juggle the roster and open up even more cap space to come off the books in 2014-2015 while creating a team with the potential to challenge for the Southeast division next year. All Lightning fans will be watching with bated breath to see how it all unfolds.
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