Hello Lightning fans and welcome to the fourth and final installment of our Bolts’ Lineup Prediction series, where we will examine what lies ahead in 2014-15 for each of Tampa Bay’s forward lines and defense pairs. Lines one and two will each got their own post, while the bottom six were combined into one. In each piece, we analyzed potential player combinations as well as projected point totals. Thus far, we have analyzed what could be an extraordinarily dynamic top line, pieced together a familiar group on line two, and organized the bottom-six forwards. In this week’s series conclusion, we will shift our attention to the back-end, offering previews for each of Tampa Bay’s defense pairs, as well as both NHL goaltenders. A projected stat line for each player is highlighted in parenthesis. (Photos/Susan Ferlita)
Defense pair number 1: Victor Hedman (11 goals/48 assists) – Jason Garrison (13 goals/21 assists)
After being selected second overall in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman joined the Lightning immediately, stepping into the NHL as an 18-year-old rookie. During his first four seasons with the team, Hedman produced commendably, but just hadn’t quite lived up to the billing of a number two overall pick. In 2013-14, his first full year under the direction of head coach Jon Cooper, Hedman exploded onto the scene, more than doubling his previous career high in both goals (13) and points (55). In doing so, he became the true top-tier defender the Bolts envisioned him as on draft day.
Even more important than the point totals, he was able to prove an elite ability to activate and drive the play for Tampa Bay’s offense. Hedman’s strength and size (6’6”, 230 pounds) allow him to meet the physical demands of strong defensive zone play while also providing him the ability to shield the puck better than most defensemen with his type of speed. With an ability to drive the play, quarterback a power-play, contribute on the score-sheet and kill penalties, Hedman is the picture-perfect number one defenseman for Jon Cooper’s system.
After the decision was made not to re-sign veteran rearguard Sami Salo, Hedman’s longtime partner and friend, Tampa Bay was left with a vacancy on their top defense pair. Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman did well in plugging that gap this summer, acquiring a pair of proven top-four NHL defenders. The first of which came on draft night, when Yzerman sent a second round selection to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for hard-shooting blueliner Jason Garrison. The former Canuck initially made his name while skating for the Florida Panthers, and finished the 2011-12 season with the league’s third-highest goal total among defensemen. Garrison isn’t a flashy player, nor is he the fastest, but he should provide the Lightning with reliable work in the defensive zone and occasional points on the power-play.
Defense pair number 2: Anton Stralman (2 goals/13 assists) – Matt Carle (7 goals/30 assists)
In perhaps his single most prudent move of the summer, Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman inked former New York Rangers’ blueliner Anton Stralman to a team-friendly contract worth a total of $22-million over four years. The underrated Swede began his career with Columbus, but first emerged into the player he is now while skating in New York. A darling of the advanced stats world, Stralman has been one of the league’s premiere possession players over the past two seasons. He won’t dazzle you with skill moves or outrageous point totals, but Stralman will undoubtedly make a huge impact on the Lightning defense corps. With an ability to drive the play and a penchant for making smart decisions with the puck, Stralman could be the anchor that Tampa Bay needs on their middle defense pair.
Skating to Stralman’s left will be two-way maven Matt Carle. After enjoying a great deal of success playing next to the physically dominant Chris Pronger during his days with Philly, many expected a similar performance from Carle when he was paired with bruising blueliner Radko Gudas last season. Unfortunately, the two could never find solid footing as a pair and will likely begin 2014 on separate lines. Carle is most effective when allowed to push the pace and get more involved in the offense, but for that to happen he must be paired with a dependable partner. That’s no slight on Gudas, but it was clear last season that he’s not quite ready for a top-four position. Moving Stralman into that role will help improve Carle’s performance and should provide the Bolts with a second-pair capable of significant offensive contributions.
Defense pair number 3: Eric Brewer (2 goals/9 assists) – Radko Gudas (5 goals/18 assists)
Seventh defenseman: Mark Barberio (2 goals/16 assists)
Czech defenseman Radko Gudas emerged as a bright young star in 2012-13 and played bigger minutes (19:07 per game) in 2013-14, finishing second among all NHL defensemen with 273 hits. Now, with the additions of Garrison and Stralman, it’s unclear if Gudas will be slotted back down to the third pair — a role in which he has thrived in the past. With lesser expectations and a steady veteran skating beside him, Gudas could be in line for another breakout season.
I’d expect that the spot on Gudas’ left flank will be Eric Brewer’s position to lose, as he still contributes big minutes on the penalty-kill for the Lightning, despite a significant loss of
skating speed. He is another player who, at this stage in his career, is best-suited to a role like this where he can be used situationally and isn’t counted on for exorbitant minute totals. However, one also has to consider the presence of 2008 draft choice Mark Barberio, who has steadily improved in each of his years with the Lightning. He provides more of an offensive presence than does Brewer, but isn’t quite as strong in his own end. Barberio can also be used on the power-play, making himself a versatile option for Tampa’s seventh defenseman spot.
Goalies
Starter: Ben Bishop (38 wins, 2.38 goals against average)
Back-up: Evgeni Nabokov (10 wins, 2.85 goals against average)
No surprises here. After enjoying a breakout campaign in 2013-14, Ben Bishop returns for another season atop the Tampa Bay goaltending depth chart. With an impressive 2.23 goals against average and .924 save percentage, Bishop’s first career Vezina Trophy nomination was very well-deserved. This year, with the addition of former New York Islanders backstop Evgeni Nabokov, the Bolts hope to have found a reliable back-up for their emerging superstar in net. While Nabokov certainly isn’t the player he once was in San Jose, the veteran was still able to post a 2.74 goals against
average in forty appearances last season. Perhaps most importantly, Nabokov adds a wealth of postseason experience, should an ill-timed goaltender injury hit the Bolts again this year.
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