When it comes to the game of baseball, sure things come few and far between. However, there was one thing just about everyone was sure about heading into 2016: the Toronto Blue Jays would have an incredible offense.
With Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin back in the fold, along with a full season of Troy Tulowitzki, it’d be tough for anyone to stop them. Right?
Not so much.
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In 2015, they led all of baseball in a number of important categories, like on-base percentage (.340), slugging percentage (.457), OPS (.797), home runs (232) and doubles (308). Toronto also ended up scoring 891 runs, the most we’ve seen by one team since the New York Yankees scored 915 in 2009.
When looking at how this team was being constructed over the winter – especially after letting David Price walk via free agency – it was clear that the offense would be a strength and the pitching staff would be a little suspect.
While the bullpen has taken its fair share of criticism for the 13 losses and seven blown saves they’re currently held accountable for, the performance of the staff as a whole is a big reason why they’ve been able to hover around the .500 mark. Marcus Stroman is rising to the occasion to be the Blue Jays’ newest ace, Aaron Sanchez is continuing to impress as a starter and Roberto Osuna has locked down the closer role.
Surprisingly enough, the greatest disappointment of all is how badly the lineup has performed through the first quarter of 2016. Using the same stats as the ones above, Toronto’s offense is basically average, which won’t help them return to October.
The offense not performing up to expectation has happened largely due to the lack of production from four very important pieces: Tulowitzki, Martin, Bautista and Encarnacion.
Since Tulo is under contract until at least 2020 and Martin is signed through 2019, the front office is forced to deal with their struggles if they continue throughout the summer and/or beyond. But when it comes to the two pending free agents in Bautista and Encarnacion, Toronto has the power to decide its future. These guys are fan favorites, but this slow start may be a blessing in disguise for the negotiations ahead – do they want this slow start to be just that, or take the risk of it becoming the new normal?
That’s the kind of problem the New York Yankees are currently dealing with. After finding success in handing out lucrative long-term deals to established players, it’s preventing them from making other major moves because so much money is tied up to inconsistent veterans.
I’m not saying Bautista or Encarnacion are diminished players at the moment. However, since neither is getting any younger (Bautista is 35, Encarnacion is 33), there’s a chance these early-season struggles happen more often and are more pronounced in the future, no matter what they do to try preventing it.
In an ideal world, Toronto would like to re-sign both because they have been (and still are) crucial pieces to the team’s success. Understandably so, they each also want to get paid for what they’ve accomplished and get the job security that comes with a four- or five-year contract.
These negotiations are far from over, but it would behoove the front office to remain steadfast in their goal of limiting the contract terms to sluggers entering their mid- to late-30s.
Coming into a new job and being forced to almost immediately make a decision on two of the club’s most popular players is not a position many executives envy. It’s an intriguing opportunity for Mark Shapiro, though. He’s been handed what was anticipated to be a competitive team in the short-term, but also one in transition with regard to their long-term outlook.
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If the Blue Jays got off to a torrid start and these two were tearing the cover off the ball, it’d be a totally different story. There’s still plenty of time for that to happen, and another trip to the postseason can only increase the odds of Toronto trying harder to retain them, but it just doesn’t make sense from a financial perspective.
As mentioned earlier, Martin and Tulowitzki are each under contract for multiple years, and they’re both over 30 years old. Josh Donaldson appears to be the best candidate to become the next face of this offense, but he’s also in his age-30 season. Having an offensive core consisting of five players over 30 – and taking up a significant portion of the payroll – is not a great idea.
A lot of front offices value flexibility, whether it’s on the roster or the payroll. According to Spotrac, the Jays already have nearly $85 million in payroll locked up between just five players next season (Tulo, Martin, Donaldson, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ). Theoretically, if they commit a total of around $40 million to two more (which is probably conservative), that already puts them very close to their 2016 payroll level ($140 million) with plenty of roster spots left to fill. Choosing one over the other would make a difference, but not by much.
Shapiro has some difficult decisions to make in the months ahead. If the Blue Jays get hot and start climbing back toward the top of the AL East standings, that decision will be even harder. But if they continue sputtering and disappoint, it gets a little easier.
Attempting to retain one or both of these sluggers should be on Toronto’s to-do list, but it should remain on their own terms. It’s Shapiro’s job to think about the future ramifications to present-day decisions and making sure there’s a balance between the two.
That probably won’t make fans too happy, but if given the choice, what would any fan rather have: the ability to field a competitive team each year, or being hamstrung by huge salaries to veterans past their prime?
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can chat about baseball: @mmusico8. Also, if you’d like to jumpstart your sportswriting career and aren’t sure how, check out my eBook.
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