Bracket Projection Update: January 30

It was a bit of a crazy weekend in college basketball. Kansas topped Kentucky in the headliner game of the weekend in the Big XII-SEC Challenge. Baylor also got all they could handle from Ole Miss, Tennessee topped Kansas State, Vanderbilt beat Iowa State, and Oklahoma State beat Arkansas. In the ACC, things continued to be wild as Florida State lost for the second time this week (to Syracuse this time), Georgia Tech (after beating Florida State) topped Notre Dame, and North Carolina fell by double-digits at Miami. How good is the ACC this year? Pitt and Clemson played Saturday in a battle for last place but they are both still on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Colorado dealt Oregon their first loss since Dillon Brooks returned from injury and Georgetown scored a big victory against Butler to vault the Hoyas into the bubble conversation.

There are 6 weeks left until Selection Sunday and a lot will change between now and March 12th when the brackets are announced. The hardest thing to differentiate right now between the bubble teams is the value of “no good wins but no bad losses” (i.e. the Wake Forest’s of the world) vs “multiple good wins but multiple bad losses.” I considered all teams in the Top 80 of the RPI for my bracket projection (no team with an RPI over 80 has ever received an At-Large bid). Last week, I wrote about how the Committee develops the bracket.

It is worth noting that with Dayton’s loss to VCU this weekend, Richmond has moved into first place in the A-10 Conference with a 7-2 conference record (VCU and Dayton are 6-2). Therefore, an At-Large bid was theoretically “stolen” in this latest update with Richmond getting the presumed automatic bid from the A-10 as the conference leader. All current conference leaders are presumed as conference champions and appear in bold.

Previous editions: 1/27

South Region

Tulsa
1. Baylor vs 16. Weber St/UC Davis
8. Northwestern vs 9. Georgetown

Sacramento
4. Oregon vs 13. New Mexico St
5. South Carolina vs 12. Winthrop

Milwaukee
3. Butler vs 14. Princeton
6. Wisconsin vs 11. Dayton/NC State

Indianapolis
2. Louisville vs 15. Akron
7. St Mary’s vs 10. Arkansas

East Region

Buffalo
1. Villanova vs 16. Mt St Mary’s/Morgan St
8. Clemson vs 9. Tennessee

Sacramento
4. Maryland vs 13. Richmond
5. UCLA vs 12. Nevada

Buffalo
3. West Virginia vs 14. Bucknell
6. Virginia Tech vs 11. Illinois St

Orlando
2. Florida St vs 15. East Tennessee St
7. Marquette vs 10. SMU

Midwest Region

Tulsa
1. Kansas vs 16. Texas Southern
8. Xavier vs 9. Michigan St

Orlando
4. Cincinnati vs 13. Florida Gulf Coast
5. Duke vs 12. UNC-Wilmington

Greenville
3. North Carolina vs 14. Georgia Southern
6. Purdue vs 11. Providence/Iowa State

Indianapolis
2. Kentucky vs 15. Belmont
7. Georgia Tech vs 10. VCU

West Region

Salt Lake City
1. Gonzaga vs 16. Sam Houston St
8. USC vs 9. Indiana

Milwaukee
4. Creighton vs 13. Monmouth
5. Notre Dame vs 12. Valparaiso

Greenville
3. Virginia vs 14. Vermont
6. Florida vs 11. Middle Tennessee St

Salt Lake City
2. Arizona vs 15. North Dakota St
7. Minnesota vs 10. Oklahoma St

Play-In Games (Tuesday in Dayton):
Dayton vs NC State (winner to Milwaukee)
Mt St Mary’s vs Morgan St (winner to Buffalo)

Play-In Games (Wednesday in Dayton):
Providence vs Iowa St (winner to Greenville)
Weber St vs UC Davis (winner to Tulsa)

Conference Breakdown: ACC – 10, Big Ten – 7, Big East – 7, SEC – 5, Big XII – 5, Pac-12 – 4, A-10 – 3,  American – 2, West Coast – 2

Last 4 Byes: Oklahoma St, Arkansas, VCU, SMU

Last 4 IN: Dayton, Providence, Iowa St, NC State

First 4 OUT: Ohio St, Pitt, Texas Tech, Seton Hall

Next 4 OUT: TCU, Miami, Michigan (Middle Tennessee), Kansas St

Others Considered: Vanderbilt, Nebraska, California, Illinois, Penn St, Ole Miss, Wake Forest, Auburn, Alabama, Georgia, Rhode Island, (Illinois St), (UNC-Wilmington), UT-Arlington, Utah, Stanford, Wichita St, Temple