With a month until Selection Sunday, there are still a number of teams in contention for the 68 spots in the NCAA Tournament. The major conference teams will dominate most of the At-Large bids that are awarded in the NCAA Tournament, but there are some small conference teams to keep an eye on and some close conference races. Last week, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee met for their annual mock run-through of the selection process. They typically meet in early February to go over the procedures so that the process flows smoothly in March. This year, they ended their meeting by releasing their Top 16 teams as of this point in the season. On Monday, I updated my bracket projection based on the Committee’s Top 16 and the prior week’s games. Over the next few days, I’ll look at both the major and minor conferences and which teams are positioned as contenders over the last three weeks of the regular season and into conference tournament play.
ACC
The ACC is absolutely the best conference in basketball this season. A month away from Selection Sunday and 13 of the 15 ACC teams are somewhere in the Tournament or bubble conversation. North Carolina currently leads the conference, but 6 other teams are within 2 games of the lead. The top 4 teams in the ACC get byes to the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, and it figures to be a close race between UNC, Florida St, Duke, Louisville, Virginia, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. In the first bracket exercise done by the Committee, 5 ACC teams were listed in the Top 16 seeds. Of those teams, Syracuse is in the most precarious tournament position with a non-conference schedule rated in the 150s and 3 losses outside the Top 100. Cuse does have big home victories over Florida St and Virginia but their best road win is over Clemson. Virginia Tech defeated Virginia in a 2OT thriller on Sunday night for their second Top 25 victory. The Hokies are in the middle of the tournament pack but have two questionable losses on their slate and can’t afford to take any more.
Wake Forest is the most intriguing team on the bubble this year. The Demon Deacons are 0-8 against the Top 50 with their best win coming over Miami (RPI 52). However, they have good computer numbers (RPI 31, SOS 15, NCSOS 15) and their worst loss is to Syracuse (RPI 72). Wake Forest is a true “no good wins, no bad losses” tournament candidate. Miami and Georgia Tech are both squarely on the bubble. Like Wake Forest, Miami does not have a loss outside the Top 75 but the Hurricanes have two Top 50 victories (including one over North Carolina) that give a tremendous boost to their profile. Georgia Tech has only 1 loss outside the Top 70 and has victories over UNC, Florida St, and Notre Dame on their profile. Unfortunately, both Georgia Tech and Miami played non-conference schedules that were among the 100 worst in the nation which leaves some question marks on their profiles. Pitt and Clemson round out the tournament hopefuls but are both currently on the wrong side of the bubble. Both the Panthers and Tigers have RPIs in the 50s which will keep them in the conversation but may simply have too many losses. Pitt has two Top 25 wins over Virginia and Maryland but has also lost 3 games outside the Top 60, including to City Game rival Duquesne (RPI 229!). Pitt’s good wins will keep them in the conversation, but losing to the worst opponent on their schedule might be too much to overcome. Clemson’s best win is over South Carolina and the Tigers also have 3 losses outside the Top 60, including a loss to Oklahoma (RPI 173).
American
Last year, the American Athletic Conference got 4 teams into the NCAA Tournament with the surprise inclusion of Tulsa as one of the Last 4 In. Much was expected of UConn before the season started but the Huskies have been a middle-of-the-pack team this season. At most, the AAC will get three teams into the field this year. SMU and Cincinnati have paced the conference with their only losses coming in a head-to-head split. Cincinnati has a better tournament profile with Top 25 victories over Xavier and SMU and no losses outside the Top 40. SMU’s profile is a little shakier with two losses to teams with RPIs in the 60s and just 2 Top 50 wins. Houston’s RPI has crept up into the 50s but their strength of schedule numbers are both in triple digits and the Cougars have 4 losses outside the Top 100 while having just 1 Top 50 win. That won’t be enough to get them an At-Large bid. Temple got two big non-conference wins by beating Florida St and West Virginia in the NIT Season Tip-Off but has been mediocre ever since, losing 6 games to sub-100 teams.
Big XII
Like the ACC, only two Big XII teams are completely out of the tournament conversation. Kansas and Baylor have been two of the best teams in the nation all season and both appeared on the top line of the Committee’s initial bracket. West Virgina (or “Press Virginia” as they are more colloquially known for their full-court pressure defense) beat both Kansas and Baylor but has lost 4 games to teams in the bottom half of the league. Those good wins put the Mountaineers on the 4-seed line in the Committee’s initial 16. After the top 3, all of the other teams are hovering right around the bubble. Iowa State, TCU, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State have very similar profiles while Texas Tech just scored a huge win over Baylor to keep their bubble hopes alive. Oklahoma St and TCU both lack a Top 25 victory but have good computer numbers. Kansas St and Iowa St have wins over Baylor and Kansas respectively, which are a huge boost to their profiles that both have non-conference schedules ranked below 150. Iowa State also has 2 losses outside the Top 100, a blemish not many other teams in the field can say right now.
Big East
Defending National Champions Villanova appeared at the top of the Committee’s seed list and for good reason – the Wildcats have been absolutely dominant this season. Interestingly, only one other Big East team (Butler) appeared in the Top 16, and the Bulldogs were on the 4-seed line. Butler has some great wins on their profile (Villanova, Arizona, Xavier, Cincinnati) but also have 3 losses outside the Top 50. Creighton lost their point guard to injury but the Blue Jays have continued to play strong. Creighton has a sweep of Butler along with wins over Xavier and Wisconsin and is in solid position for the tournament. Despite strong computer numbers, Xavier’s tournament position was a little precarious until last week when they got their best win of the season at Creighton. The Musketeers have just 1 bad loss and should get a middle of the pack seeding. After the top 4 teams, the rest of the Big East is wide open and Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence and Georgetown are all hovering around the bubble. Seton Hall’s neutral court victories over South Carolina and California are carrying their profile right now, which also features 4 losses outside the Top 60. Georgetown has some of the best wins among the Big East bubble teams with victories over Oregon, Butler and Creighton. However, the Hoyas also have 4 losses to teams ranked between 65th and 85th. Marquette is a hard team to judge. The Eagles have wins over Villanova and Creighton and only 1 loss outside the Top 70 but have very bad computer numbers (RPI 84, NCSOS 260). No team has ever received an At-Large bid with an RPI over 80 so despite their good wins, Marquette is still in a very precarious spot. Providence has been a bane for Big East bubble teams with victories over Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Marquette but the Friars non-conference schedule (175th) and 3 losses outside the Top 100 put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
Big Ten
This is a down year by Big Ten standards. The Committee’s Top 16 teams featured no Big Ten teams and currently only Purdue is in the Top 20 of the RPI. Due to this, even victories over conference leaders Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland fails to impress as a “great win” as the later two are ranked in the 20s. Purdue’s best wins are exactly that while Maryland and Wisconsin’s best wins are both over Minnesota (RPI 25). Wisconsin is the only one of the three without a loss to a sub-50 team (Purdue has 2 and Maryland 3). Northwestern has never made the NCAA Tournament but has put themselves in position to do just that with a win at Wisconsin on Sunday night. The Wildcats have only 1 loss outside the Top 50 and need to just avoid bad losses the rest of the way in order to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Similarly, Minnesota’s resume has good computer numbers and has a road win over Purdue. The Gophers have lost just twice outside the Top 50 and are perfect outside the Top 70 which should be enough to get them in. It seems odd that I have written about five Big Ten teams and not yet mentioned Michigan State. Sparty is having a down year with their best wins being a sweep of Minnesota and their profile laden with 5 losses outside the Top 50. Right now they are hovering precariously on the top end of the bubble but it wouldn’t take much to put Sparty in danger.
Michigan is currently hovering right in the middle of the bubble. The Wolverines have a neutral court win over SMU but their resume is sparse beyond that and have lost three times to teams ranked between 60 and 110. Similarly, Ohio State and Illinois have just 2 Top 50 wins with their best victories over a team ranked in the 20s. Ohio State has 2 sub-100 losses including a home loss to Florida Atlantic (#295!!). Illinois has not lost outside the Top 100 but have 5 losses to teams ranked between 60 and 100. Penn State has decent computer numbers (RPI 67, SOS 23, NCSOS 44) and wins over Maryland and Minnesota but have 3 losses outside the Top 100 and 4 more to teams ranked between 50 and 100 which is likely too much to overcome. The fascinating case is Indiana. The Hoosiers have terrible computer numbers (RPI 91, NCSOS 166) but have wins over Kansas and North Carolina. Indiana has lost just twice outside the Top 65 but needs some victories to bring up their RPI if they are going to be in the tournament conversation.
Pac-12
The top of the Pac-12 is a 3-team race between Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA. Over the last two weeks, Oregon has murdered Arizona then blew a big lead against UCLA. All three were in the Top 16 seeds released by the Committee on Saturday and are virtual locks to make the field. USC has a solid but not spectacular profile. Their 2 Top 25 wins and only 1 loss outside the Top 40 will be good enough to put them somewhere between the 7 and 9 seeds on the bracket. California is an interesting team that lacks a good win (their best is over #32 USC) but has only one loss outside the Top 50. Unfortunately for the Golden Bears, their second best win is over #70 Princeton so their resume is severely lacking in quality. They’re squarely in the middle of the bubble right now. Utah also has a win over USC, which is their only Top 100 victory. The Utes are barely clinging to the bottom end of the bubble and will need to do a lot of work over the next month to be considered.
SEC
Like the Pac-12, the SEC is a 3-team race at the top between Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina. Florida and Kentucky were both listed as 3-seeds by the Committee. Kentucky beat North Carolina in a December thriller while Florida’s only Top 25 victory is a 22-point throttling of Kentucky. South Carolina also has a Top 25 RPI but their only Top 25 victory is over Florida. The Gamecocks have 3 losses outside the Top 50 with two of them coming at home but should still be in solid position for the Tournament. After the top three, there are 9 teams within two games of each other battling for the fourth bye in the conference tournament. Arkansas has the best RPI (44) but does not have a Top 40 victory and has 3 losses outside the Top 60, including one to Missouri (#243). Tennessee has the best computer numbers (RPI 46, SOS 5, NCSOS 9) and has a win over Kentucky but also has 4 losses outside the Top 50.
Georgia and Ole Miss hava very similar profiles with good computer numbers but lack a “signature win” over a top opponent. Both Georgia and Ole Miss have victories over Tennessee, which is their only Top 50 win. Ole Miss only has 2 losses outside the Top 50 while Georgia has 5 which puts them on the bottom end of the bubble. Similarly, archrivals Auburn and Alabama both have just 1 Top 50 win and 5 losses outside the Top 50. Vanderbilt has a signature win but currently has a losing record overall and has 5 losses against teams ranked between 50 and 100 and a killer loss against Missouri.
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