Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
2018 fWAR: -0.1
2019 fWAR (so far): 2.1
Giolito’s 2018 season was painful, but likely a good learning experience. Among qualified starters, his 6.13 ERA and 5.37 SIERA were both the worst in baseball. Through 60 innings this year, though, he’s very clearly among one of the league’s most productive starters, armed with a 2.85 ERA and 3.74 SIERA.
His current 8.5% walk rate is a huge improvement over last year (11.6%), but his strikeout rate has nearly doubled (16.1% in ’18, 29.4% so far in ’19). This change appears sustainable, too, thanks to a 12.8% swinging-strike rate.
Giolito’s last six starts since coming off the Injured List have been especially impressive — his most recent 41.1 innings have included a 1.74 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, five wins, four quality starts, and no outings with more than three earned runs allowed.
The right-hander’s changeup usage has jumped from 15.9% in ’18 to 23.4% thus far in 2019. It’s produced a 31.1% strikeout rate (23.1% last year) and 36 wRC+ (86 last year).
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