Ronnie Dawson, CF
Dawson is the 2nd possible Astro that could be selected in the Rule 5 draft on this list. Similarly to Brandon Bailey, Dawson has not truly proven that he is currently MLB-caliber through AAA performance. As of now, he has only played 10 AAA games and in AA he only had a 105 wRC+ with a K% over 30%. So it may seem obvious why Dawson may not be chosen. Not many hitters can survive with a 30% K rate in the Majors can survive, let alone in AA.
It does seem possible that a rebuilding team takes a shot on Dawson to see if they can unlock his potential in later years, though. For starters, Dawson is constantly improving. Despite being a late bloomer in baseball due to a promising football career that was cut short, Dawson put in a lot of work with getting faster and throwing harder to ensure that he was capable of playing center field. The Astros took notice and played him in CF for a majority of the games even though he played mostly in LF the year prior.
As an athlete, Dawson is very tall, strong, and fast. While contact issues have plagued him, the promise is there for the ability to take walks, power, and speed to balance things out. In the minor leagues, Dawson has been able to hit many opposite-field home runs, which really speaks to the potential in his bat for the future. Dawson may present a “best of both worlds” option for some teams, as he is not incredibly far away from the MLB to the point that he will lose all confidence from initial struggles, but he also presents the potential to develop into a regular starter in the future.
Wander Javier, SS
Javier is easily the biggest name on the list of unprotected prospects. That does not make him an obvious pick for most teams, however. Still, it would be surprising to see the Twins get him back unscathed. Similar to Dawson, Javier would be an option for rebuilding teams who are looking for a good prospect to develop, even if they are not necessarily ready to be in the Majors for all of 2020. In Javier’s case, he is even further away, so it would be risky to expect him to continue to develop while skipping A+, AA, and AAA. The 20-year-old did not even dominate Single-A in 2019, as he posted an 80 wRC+ and a strikeout rate over 30% in his first season back following a labrum tear.
It is fairly clear that Javier could not contribute to a team that will attempt to make the postseason in 2020, but similarly to Richie Martin, the possibility of having a shortstop with the offensive upside of Wander Javier would be too much to pass on. MLB Pipeline describes his situation like this: “Once he can shake the rust off, there is confidence he’ll once again show his considerable offensive upside. He makes consistent hard contact with a natural feel to hit and while as a young player without that many reps, he’ll need to refine his approach. He does work counts and draw walks. As he fills out, his bat speed and potential plus hitting tool could lead to at least average power. Fortunately, Javier’s injury wasn’t to his throwing shoulder, so his plus arm should be just fine.”
It will be tough on Javier’s development to play in the MLB already. But some other players as young as he is have skipped many levels as well, like Juan Soto. And given his mature physicality, and already strong defense at a premium position, maybe somebody takes the bait.
Roberto Ramos, 1B
Given Colorado’s need at first base and Ramos’ success in AAA, it is certainly surprising to see Ramos left unprotected, and another team with a hole at 1st base should take a chance at him. While Ramos is not considered a top-level first base prospect talent, MLB Pipeline still gives him plus raw power at the plate, and Baseball Prospectus graded his raw power a 70, as he displayed during an AFL game this fall.
ROBERTO RAMOS FIRST AFL HOME RUN, LETS FREAKING GOOOO!!!!
STAR FIRST BASEMAN OF THE FUTURE!
ALSO THAT SOUND OFF THE BAT, NUTTY, OH MY GODDDDD, IT WAS PERFECT!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/8cMYmX9tK7— Nick 🦘⚾️ (@Slam_Hilliard22) October 2, 2019
Ramos will not have a high ceiling as a first-baseman without outstanding tools or abilities, but it is hard to argue that he is not ready. He has hit well above average at every single level, including in 127 games in AAA. While you can argue that a new ball and a helpful atmosphere was why he hit 30 homers, that does not change that even when adjusted for park factors, Ramos hit 35% better than the rest of his league in 2019. He also walked over 12% of the time, a rate that should drastically help his OBP should he make the majors. Ultimately, Ramos is not super exciting, but he has performed well enough to show that he is as MLB-ready as he will ever be. While Steamer currently projects Ramos’ 2020 statline in the MLB te be .261/.329/.468, which is probably not good enough for a first baseman, he could still translate to the MLB better than that.
Buddy Reed, CF
If a team selects Buddy Reed, they might not necessarily believe that he is ready for a big role. He certainly has the potential to be a starter in the future. Fangraphs ranks Reed as San Diego’s 22nd ranked prospect, MLB Pipeline ranks him as their 25th best. Those scouting reports mention average raw power from the tall and athletic Reed, as well as control of the barrel and ability to go the opposite way. All he has to be is an average, if not slightly below average, hitter, due to his switch-hitting ability, 70 graded speed, and plus defense in center field.
MLB Pipeline mentions some of the changes Reed has made to his offensive game to improve his current offensive profile, which will still need to happen to get Reed to become a starter in the future. In 121 AA games in 2019, Reed posted a 93 wRC+ and 84 DRC+. His K% was nearing 30% as well. As of now, Steamer projects his wRC+ in the MLB in 2020 to be 56, essentially unplayable. However, in 2019 he did steal over 20 bags, which is a plus.
With a 26th man allowed on the roster, Reed would present a perfect stash opportunity because he can currently slide in as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement just fine, which is exactly what many teams are looking for in their 26th man. While he fits his role perfectly for 2020, he can also develop at the plate to hopefully contribute even more in the distant future. There are not many athletes in baseball like Reed, so it is difficult for every team to be able to pass him up.
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