The following is a guest post by Neil Sharma.
The Celtics are poised for a great season. This feisty group of overachievers won 48 games last year, and with Al Horford on board, the team should compete for the number two seed. The media is high on Brad Stevens and the Celtics organization as a whole. ESPN’s Real Plus Minus projects them to win 50 games.
Doubts about this team have been lost in the sea of praise. Yes, they should make the playoffs, but what if they cannot live up to expectations? Solely based on their roster, they have overachieved for the past two seasons. Is there a chance they underachieve this season? There are plenty of reasons the team might disappoint, here are 10 of them.
1. Nobody fills Evan Turner’s void
Brad Stevens resurrected Turner’s career. The Celtics were the only team to offer more than the minimum. Over the past two seasons, he quietly filled the important void of one-on-one scoring for the offensively inept Celtics. ET could get buckets when the offense stagnated, and he performed in clutch situations when defenses targeted Isaiah Thomas.
Currently, our second best one-on-one scorer is probably Gerald Green, and there’s really no guarantee he secures a spot in the rotation. Horford, despite all his value, is not an isolation player, not a guy you dump it into the post and expect a bucket. Maybe Smart or Rozier will improve their iso scoring, but that’s high demand for young players with streaky jumpers.
Evan Turner was arguably the team’s best passer, and was often team’s primary ball-handler. Our offense was never great last year, but Turner singlehandedly prevented it from not being below average. What will happen when IT’s not feeling it one night? Who’s the other player taking clutch shots when IT is bottled up by a long defender? The team is placing their trust in young, unproven players.
2. The Jaylen Brown pick goes south
Kris Dunn seems to be everyone’s projected rookie of the year. If he shines in Minnesota, how bad does Danny look for taking Brown over him?
We’ve seen some spectacular flashes from Brown during the preseason and summer league. Despite exceeding expectations with his playmaking and driving abilities, he has a long way to go with his shooting, finishing, and overall feel for the game.
Here’s a good exercise. Which combo would you rather have: Jaylen Brown & Terry Rozier, or Kris Dunn & Rondae Hollis-Jefferson? Or instead of Hollis-Jefferson, Dunn & Bobby Portis? The C’s could have had these latter combinations, but the Rozier pick undoubtedly dissuaded them from taking Dunn.
How much will Brown realistically contribute? Probably not much, maybe 10 minutes a game. For every flash of athletic greatness, we’ll see moments of frustration. His raw development will lead to consistent boneheaded plays, which will bring back flashes of Jeff Green.
While this is going on, we’ll flip to SportsCenter and see Buddy Hield stroking threes in New Orleans, Jamal Murray flashing offensive potential in Denver, Dragan Bender displaying the roots of the ultimate modern big man in Phoenix, and of course, Dunn doing his best CP3 impersonation in Minnesota.
If Brown cannot prove he’s at least a top five player from that draft, the pick will be considered a massive failure, and another miss from that valuable Brooklyn package of picks (see: James Young from 2014… taken over Rodney Hood and Clint Cappella).
3. Opponents take advantage of the team’s poor shooting/lack of offense
Remember the first round loss to Atlanta? The Hawks packed the paint, over-helped with weak-side defenders, and exposed the C’s weak shooting. Yes, we were missing Bradley and Olynyk – arguably our two best three point shooters – but Ainge did not do much to improve the team’s shooting deficiencies.
Jaylen Brown won’t help our three point shooting woes. Gerald Green might, but he’s really only had one good shooting year (13-14′ in Phoenix) and minutes will not be guaranteed. Horford will help, and Crowder should improve. But the team cannot rely on Rozier and Smart to solve this issue. Our shooting deficiencies were exposed during last year’s playoff loss, and if opponents find a similar formula, the offense could be in trouble.
4. Teams figure out Isaiah Thomas
Since Isaiah Thomas arrived in Boston, the team has a .624 win percentage, equivalent to 51 wins on an 82 game schedule. He was 11th in the league in scoring last year, averaging 22.2 points. He’s probably the best under six foot player of all time (not counting Allen Iverson).
But there is a formula for stopping him. Shaun Livingston and Iman Shumpert – both long, defensive-oriented players – can contain him. We do not have reliable shooting or an established secondary scorer. Teams can stop Thomas by guarding him with long players, limiting transition opportunities, packing the paint to prevent driving lanes, and attacking him when he’s on defense (a la Cavs vs. Steph Curry). Is this the year that teams, after multiple years of scouting Isaiah, can figure out how to stop him? There’s a reason 5’9” guards have never succeeded in the NBA.
Isaiah had an awesome opportunity to be a lead scorer after being traded to the Celtics, and to his credit, he took full advantage. Now he’s the center of attention on a top-three eastern conference team. He will receive far more attention and planning from defenses.
5. We get killed on the boards
Jared Sullinger, despite his weight issues, was outstanding on the boards last year, finishing in the top 15 in rebounding percentage for anyone with over 1500 minutes. Horford is probably better in every aspect, besides rebounding. He had 14 total rebounds during their second round sweep against the Cavs, as Tristan Thompson dominated him for the second straight year.
Olynyk is a poor rebounder at his position. Johnson is solid, but if he’s the primary guy crashing the boards, you’re in trouble in the playoffs. Zeller is blah. Turner was one of the best rebounding wing players in the league last year. Thomas and Bradley? Statistically they are two of the worst rebounding guards in the league. This is a clear weakness for the Celtics, and there aren’t too many answers.
6. Our depth is not actually deep
Our starting lineup of Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Horford looked stelar throughout the preseason. Smart and Olynyk are the first two off the bench. Olynyk is coming of right shoulder surgery, a potential impediment to his most valuable skill: shooting. Smart sprained his ankle in the preseason finale and clearly struggles to consistently stay on the court. Both players will be injured to start of the season.
After these two, we’ve got Rozier, who — despite a promising summer — has never played significant NBA minutes, and we now want him to be a lead ball-handler on a potential two-seed?
We know what Jerebko brings: occasional shooting, offensive rebound tip-outs, the ability to switch onto perimeter players, and those cringeworthy, ineffective running hooks. The media raved about the team’s depth last season, but when the playoffs started, the team looked alarmingly thin. Our bench is not terrible, but it’s not terribly reliable, and we’ll soon find out if it’s supremely overrated.
7. Big men besides Horford
We discussed Olynyk’s shoulder, and how it could affect his shooting. Amir Johnson is in his 11th year. He has a long list of past injuries, and we were lucky to get 79 games out of him last year. We know what Jerebko can and can’t do. Same goes with Zeller.
Crowder should get significant time at the four, but outside of Horford, who do we really rely on as a big man? Although they represented a weakness last season, Brad Stevens did an excellent job of distributing the minutes evenly amongst Sullinger, Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, and for a time David Lee.
We obviously improved with Horford, but it cannot be overlooked that the big men behind him have a lower floor than they have high ceiling.
8. Smart doesn’t make the leap
Smart’s valiant playoff performance last year overshadowed a disappointing regular season. He shot 25 percent from three (taking 4 a game!) and 35 percent overall, both worse than his rookie year. He missed 21 games, showed little year-to-year improvement, and established himself as the most egregious flopper in the league.
During last year’s offseason, we expected a leap. It didn’t happen. You could argue he regressed, but the narrative flipped in the playoffs. He put up 20 points, 8 boards, 5 assists, 2 steals, and an amazing +24 in their game four win against Atlanta. He hit pull up threes, guarded four positions, and made consistently ridiculous defensive plays.
Smart’s remodeled shooting form offered initial signs of encouragement, but he responded by shooting an abominable 13 percent from three in the preseason. He continues to play recklessly, and for the third straight year, he starts the season with an ankle injury. He must learn a more conservative style if he wants to stay healthy, but that essentially undercuts what he is: an ultra-aggressive defender who consistently gives up his body.
This is a lose-lose situation. If he changes who he is, he may be ineffective, and if he stays reckless, he won’t stay on the court. If Smart cannot refine his shot, stay on the floor, or otherwise show significant offensive improvement, the Celtics will find themselves with a potential bust.
9. General injuries, to anyone
The Celtics have two all-star caliber players, Thomas and Horford, but their success is not contingent solely on the play of our best players, it’s largely based on depth. Take take away the fourth or fifth best player on the Cavs, Spurs, Clippers, or Warriors, and they should be fine. Their top-tier talent will carry them.
The Celtics are much more volatile in this sense. Take away Bradley, our team shooting immediately looks worse. Remove Johnson, we lose necessary rebounding, rim protection, and interior defense. Without Crowder, we suddenly look thin on the wing.
Every player, one through eight, has a specific role on this superstar-less team. For that reason, the team is much more sensitive to injuries than other top 10 NBA teams. Exhibit A came during the aforementioned Hawks series. We were never great at shooting, but remove Olynyk and Bradley, we look like a terrible shooting team. When Crowder went down towards the end of last year, our perimeter defense immediately struggled, as we had nobody to defend the dynamic small forwards.
To use an economic term, the marginal cost of losing any of our 3 through 8 guys is greater than that marginal cost for any other top 10 team in the league. All teams are affected by injuries, but our team — built on supposed depth, role-specific players, and without any superstar — will be more sensitive to that as 82 game season grinds along. The Celtics are already dealing with injuries to Smart and Olynyk, and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
10. Danny makes a dumb trade which leads to Brad Stevens eviscerating him in public.
Wyc Grousbeck and the ownership group, protecting their guy, fire Brad on the spot, leading to outrage from fans and the players, led by Jae Crowder (who is dressed in spartan attire when he storms into the Waltham office). Isaiah tries to be the stabilizer of the situation, but then the players turn on him for being too much of a “company man.” He demands a trade, Danny refuses to trade his great contract, Isaiah starts throwing games, fans revolt…
Back to reality. We’ll probably win 54 games.
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