Before digging into the substance of the post, I must provide an apology. As many of you know, we just returned from a two-week vacation to Maine, Nova Scotia, PEI and Quebec. (Articles forthcoming during lulls in the hockey action). The down side of the vacation was that we missed the start of the season, and in our absence, the Blue Jackets posted a 2-5 record. Since our return last Saturday, they are 3 – 0. Just sayin’. Anyway, notwithstanding any dubious claims of causation, I promise to never again allow vacation to interfere with hockey. Mea culpa . . .
Let’s turn to the matters at hand. The Blue Jackets now have 10 games under their collective belts, which equals 12.19% of the season. Instead of relying on Twitter summaries or online post-mortems of the games — as we were compelled to do on the cruise — I’ve seen the live, in-person product on the ice for three games. Combined with some statistical review, I’ve got all I need to provide a first review of the good and the bad, and some indications of what might be forthcoming.
The Basics
As of Sunday morning, the Blue Jackets are 5-5-0, with 10 points, but working on a three-game winning streak. The record might not be what some had hoped for, but represents a significant improvement over the 3-6-1 start last year, and light-years ahead of the 1-8-1 start in 2011-2012. More importantly, the club was able to shrug off a miserable four-game losing streak and post truly solid efforts against Vancouver, New Jersey and Toronto.
Unlike prior years, Columbus has not put itself behind the eight ball to start the season, despite having Fedor Tyutin out for the first few games, losing Matt Calvert to abdominal injury and surgery and having a couple of less-than-stellar outings from Sergei Bobrovsky. The Blue Jackets sit in fourth in the Metropolitan Division, with a game in hand over both second place Carolina and the third place Islanders. A victory over Anaheim would move the Jackets into second place in the Division, above the playoff line in the new seeding structure. As it is, the Jackets are one slot out of the wild card picture, two points behind Montreal, but with a game in hand.
To be sure, it is far too early to concern ourselves with playoff positioning, but it is a barometer of relative performance. With clubs like New Jersey, Philadelphia and the Rangers putting themselves in a hole early, opportunity is knocking now, and continuing their current streak would go a long way to providing insurance for later adversity.
While .500 may not seem like much to be excited about, there is room to argue that Columbus may just be the best .500 club in the NHL. Columbus has parlayed a +3 team goal differential into that .500 record. By way of comparison, the Hurricanes and Islanders are -8 and -1, respectively. Detroit has garnered 14 points in 12 games, despite having a -6 differential. This simply proves that it’s not just how many goals you score, but when you score them, and the Blue Jackets have not yet had their run of fortuitous timing.
The Numbers
The team statistics suggest the Jackets are better than their record as well. Columbus has historically had an awful time 
scoring, and has almost universally fallen at the bottom of the pile in Goals per Game. Thus far, they rank 19th in the NHL, with 2.70 goals per game. While not cause for elation, it’s a big improvement over past years, especially for a club looking to establish some line chemistry across some new and young forwards.
On the flip side, the Blue Jackets rank 7th in the league in Goals Against Average, allowing just 2.5 GPG. From my seat, the importance here is not only the number itself, but how that number has been reached. It has truly been the result of team defense, not just stellar goaltending. Bobrovsky has a solid — but not spectacular — GAA of 2.44. McElhinney was superb in his lone outing, but neither goalie has registered a shutout. Despite some early stumbles — and some individual issues (discussed below) — the defense is coming together.
One area of potential concern is the number of opportunities Columbus is providing the opposition. The Blue Jackets are at a precise stand-off when it comes to Shots on Goal. They fire an average of 30.8 shots on goal (good for 6th in the NHL), but allow the same 30.8 — 21st in the NHL. That’s living dangerously, and though the trend has improved over the past few games, it’s something to watch. When the defense starts collapsing, rather than challenging, trouble ensues.
It might surprise some that special teams are precisely reversed from prior years, where the PK tended to be solid, but the power play anemic. While the squad has suffered from some inconsistency with the extra man, they have converted 20.5% of the time, good for a 12th place NHL rank. On the other hand, the PK is only keeping the puck out 78.1% of the time. That has improved as well of late, but it’s worth a bit of concern.
One of the underrated statistics is face-off percentage, which helps establish possession and can extricate clubs from perilous situations. Here, the Jackets are excelling, winning 53.6% of the draws, 6th best in the NHL. A big part of the victory over Toronto was the domination of the face-off circle, winning 44 of 66 draws.
So, except for a couple of sketchy areas, the club is faring quite well on a comparative basis — another indication that the Blue Jackets might just be better than their record.
The Intangibles
Numbers, of course, tell only part of the story. There’s are the myriad intangibles — on and off the ice — which impact both the results and the experience. With few exceptions, these are turning positive as well.
Chemistry is one of those elusive characteristics that clubs work hard to achieve — then struggle to maintain. From my limited view of highlights from the first seven games, the squad appeared to be struggling to find a cohesive approach at either end. Both ends of the ice were characterized by a lot of individual play, which created some massive gaps on defense, and missed opportunities on offense. That has changed rather dramatically over the last three contests, as team defense has returned and the offense has started to gel.
An encouraging sign is the re-emergence of a trend that was so evident during last year’s run — the tendency to get better as the game progresses. During the current three-game streak, the club has found a way to accelerate as the game has progressed, eschewing the time-honored “prevent defense”. Here’s an interesting factoid along these lines — three of the five victories this season have been by margins of three goals or more. There were five such games over all of last season, and just seven over the full 82 games in 11-12. This shows a club with an ability to finish — a quality sorely lacking in past years. When was the last time you remember the Blue Jackets scoring a non-empty-net goal with less than a minute to go in a game that they won — as they did against Toronto? The club had the pedal to the metal for sixty minutes, and that’s an intangible worth tracking.
Off the ice, the speculation about a team captain continues, but no indication of a resolution is being provided by the 
club. As I’ve said before, while it is certainly a point of interest for the fans, the fan base really has no vote on this one. It’s the players’ call, and the efficacy of a captain is determined inside the room, not in public. That being said, Dubinksy is my prediction. Frankly, I think the whole captain thing is overblown, but it’s a tradition of the game, and accordingly does merit some attention.
Some of the usual hand-wringing has been going on concerning attendance, particularly in light of the large Toronto contingent that appeared for Friday night’s contest. The fact of the matter is that October has been a tough month for attendance (other than Opening Night) for several years, with a notable uptick coming in November and later. In fact, the attendance thus far has been well ahead of early October games in the last couple of seasons. Attendance for the Toronto game was within a few hundred of the last home game vs. the Leafs. It will take time for the faithful to return in full force, but the Eastern Conference affiliation is already paying dividends, with larger crowds for midweek games that would otherwise be sparse. Patience, young grasshoppers — things will be well.
Finally, the organization itself and the game ops staff deserve some special mention. The club’s handling of the NHL’s Hockey Fights Cancer campaign was really superlative, and its culmination on Friday night was heart-warming, gut wrenching and memorable. Similarly, it was nice to see the game ops staff strategically up the volume on the in-arena music whenever the assembled Toronto faithful started to get any sort of organized cheering going. That, combined with the play on the ice, kept the invaders in check. While it might be annoying, it’s great to see a club that travels so well, with such passion. We need to emulate it, not ridicule it.
The Players
Volumes can be written on this — and I will get around to it after some more games are in the books, but a brief overview is in order here.
On the offensive side, Gaborik, Dubinsky and Atkinson lead the pack. Gaborik has so much skill, and makes scoring look so easy, it seems that his five goals and five assists have been almost effortless. Dubinsky seems to find a way to make just the right play at just the right time — with his short-handed goal against Toronto just another example. Atkinson has two game-winning goals, a bushel of near-misses, and creates havoc wherever he goes. He needs to exercise a bit more patience and a bit more diligence on defense, but he is on the verge of exploding. Foligno and Anisimov are not far behind — quietly and effectively creating opportunities and contributing. Anisimov has not really caught fire yet, so that is something to look forward to.
A group of guys are in the category of solid performers who perhaps have not been adequately rewarded for their efforts. Foremost among these is Johansen, who is doing a lot of great things, and is just starting to see some entries on the scorecard. He is on the verge of big things, in my view. Blake Comeau makes the occasional gaffe, but also creates opportunities, keeps the play going, and has been robbed of some prime chances. Boone Jenner gave a tantalizing glimpse of what is possible with his two-goal effort, but really contributes far more than that. After spending about three games in Todd Richards ‘ “You’re a young player and you scare me” dog house, Jenner has found his legs and is causing havoc on the ice on a regular basis. He is drawing penalties, getting into the greasy areas, screening the goaltender and doing the things that a prolific scorer often avoids. (See Huselius, Kristian) Once his current injury is resolved, look for more there.
Jared Boll frankly looks lost out there, and has negated some otherwise nice chances created by his line mates — Derek MacKenzie and Mark Letestu. I’d still like to see Letestu get a chance with some better talent, so that he could have a realistic opportunity to duplicate last year’s production. I think R.J. might benefit from some time on the fourth line, but that’s just me.
On defense, Ryan Murray has really settled in nicely, and finally got rewarded with his initial NHL goal. David Savard has been somewhat of a surprise, being solid, if not spectacular. After missing some early time, Tyutin is returning to his quietly reliable defensive presence, though I’d like to see him be a bit more aggressive on the offensive end. Prout runs hot and cold, so the jury is out there.
The concerns I have on the defensive front focus on Johnson, Wisniewski and Nikitin. Entering the season, I thought that Nikitin might be trade bait, and his early play — and subsequent scratches — does nothing to undermine that assessment. Wisniewski has been productive at the offensive end — producing a slew of second assists — but his defensive play has been a high-wire act. Frankly, Murray has bailed Wiz out on more than one occasion, and Wiz really needs to tighten up his defensive play. Johnson has frankly been bad. While he makes the occasional individual play, he has been very spotty in his own zone, and inconsistent in the offensive end. To a certain extent, he might be adjusting to new pairings, but his game needs to step up dramatically.
In goal, Bobrovsky has returned to the reliable, solid play we expect, after a couple of questionable outings. He seems more comfortable and assured in the net, which is a good sign going forward. McElhinney was a pleasant surprise in his lone effort, producing a great individual effort, and effectively winning the game by himself. If he can produce efforts anything close to that one, the net will not be the source of problems this year.
So, overall, the individual play has been characterized by initial growing pains, with more solid producers than laggards. The blue liners are more of a question than anybody expected entering the year, but that will hopefully work its way out over the coming weeks. Davidson and Kekalainen will certainly be willing to act to remedy the situation if necessary.
Going Forward
In summary, the club is in a better spot than the record alone would indicate. They are doing a lot of the little things right, have the right quality of effort, and are moving in a positive direction, rather than regressing. If I had to name the key things to watch for, it would be these:
- Avoid the individual play, particularly in the defensive zone
- Play North-South on offense — stop over-passing and looking for the “cute” play
- Challenge at the blue line. The collapsing umbrella can work on the 5-on-3, but is fatal 5-on-5
Plenty of room for improvement, but lots of reason for optimism as well. Not a bad place to be.
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