Chris: OK Joey Bag of Donuts. It’s time for question 14 and what I want to know is how many games you seen Sam Reinhart playing in this year. Does he see more than 40 games in blue and gold?
Joe: That’s a tough question for me. Sam has had a really nice preseason thus far scoring 4 points in 3 games. However, I’ve noticed they haven’t played him a lot in comparison to other forwards. They didn’t play him in two games which seems to be a norm with guys getting games off, but when he played, his ice time was the 5th fewest in those games and the guys with fewer were those who definitely aren’t going to make the club. So, I kind of wonder if that’s reading into the tea leaves too much that they want to bring him on slowly and he may start up in Rochester and then be brought up here and there. I wanna say it will be fewer than 40+
Chris: There’s absolutely nothing wrong with starting him in Rochester. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I endorse that idea, but I think it would help solve some of the question marks they have in terms of depth on the bottom two lines. That being said, I think he gets more than 40 games this year. In fact, I’m betting he starts the year in Buffalo.
Joe: Agree. You and are on the same page with being cool with #23 starting in Rochester as we understand it can take upwards to 2-3 years for a prospect to be a regular NHL player. Its case by case and none of us our scouts. With that being said, do you think its right for him to play here right away since he’ll be probably on the 3rd or 4th line? On those lines, he could fall into the Grigo trap of playing with not so great offensive talented guys. Wouldn’t it behoove them to have him play top minutes in Rochester with the best players on that team?
Chris: I think you might be underselling some of the players they have penciled in for the third line this season. Assuming Zemgus Girgensons starts on the second line with Moulson and Eichel, that leaves Reinhart, Jamie McGinn, Brian Gionta, Johan Larsson, Marcus Foligno, Nic Deslauriers, David Legwand, Cody McCormick (once healthy) to fill out the bottom six. Even Cal O’Reilly, Jason Akeson and Tim Schaller could push into that conversation. That allows for the third line to be filled from a pool of players with a fair amount of talent.
Joe: OK, but what about ice time? He won’t get as much up here. And sure, Gionta/McGinn are better than what Grigo had to deal with. Also, do you put anything into how he started off last year for those first 10 games? He did seem a bit lost and obviously you’d like to think he’s improved some. However, we haven’t seen him in an NHL game since then and he played only a handful of games in Rochester.
Chris: His skating is worlds better and I think it’s safe to say he’s stronger as well. So many of the perceived issues he had last year will almost certainly be behind him. So I wouldn’t use his firs 9 games as a way to judge what he’ll do this season. Secondly, even though he’ll be seeing fewer 5-on-5 minutes than Eichel or O’Reilly, he’ll be in a controlled atmosphere with skilled players. Jamie McGinn has pushed towards 20 goals in each of his last two full seasons and he’ll be a great compliment for Reinhart. Plus, he’ll get some time on the powerplay, especially if Bylsma continues to use 4 forwards. There will be enough ice time that he won’t just rot on the bench.
Joe: Yeah, he’ll be better suited here this year than last year. I probably need to stop going back to last year since everyone wanted the Sabres to suck. Im not saying he will be that guy from the start of last year either. Sure, he’s gotten better if you were watching him play and keeping tabs (Im going by what Baker says), but is he NHL ready to play 40+ games this year? You can be the king of Kootnay Ice, but competition is obviously gonna be better in the NHL. IMO, I think he’s gonna float between both Rochester and Buffalo. But I’m merely basing it on how he’s still a young kid and I think there’s no rush to hurry him since the Sabres have better talent. Plus, Im basing it off only a handful of games, which doesn’t make me feel comfortable to say he’s ready to play most of this year. As you know, I need to see the guy at the NHL level before I can say he’s ready.
Chris: There are a couple of advantages to playing that slightly sheltered role on the 3rd line. First, the third line isn’t going to be a bag of wet newspaper this year, the group will actually be capable of producing. Second, should Gionta and Girgensons flip on the depth chart – Gionta to the second line and Girgensons to the third – Girgensons can slide in at center and Reinhart and shift to the wing. Not only would that lift some pressure from his shoulders, but it would give him another big body to play with as a partner on that line. McGinn-Girgensons-Reinhart wouldn’t be a bad third line in the least. Ultimately I think he’s going to gain more from playing at the NHL level than he would playing on the first line in Rochester. That’s typically not the case with a growing prospect, but I’d fully expect to see him turn into a quality contributor this season.
Joe: last question..what should be his numbers this season if you think he plays here more often than not?
Chris: Now that’s a good one. How much time do you have? If we’re hoping to see Eichel sniff 60 points, I think 45 would be a fair expectation for Reinhart. I’m kind of thinking of his potential in a vacuum vs really taking in the *entire* situation, but if he’s seeing less time at 5-on-5 but still getting looks on the powerplay, a 10+35 or 15+30 stat line would be really encouraging. There’s one other big advantage at play for Reinhart no matter where he plays. So much of the focus will be on Eichel that it’s probably fair to assume that Reinhart can fly under the radar a bit more in terms of his growth.
Joe: last comment Id like to throw out and this may favor your 40+ games or just could be a coincidence…But since 2009, the 2nd pick in the draft has played 82, 79, 81, 36 (Lockout year) and 12 NHL games in the 2nd year after they were drafted. So the odds of him playing more if we base it off the last few drafts is above average.
Archives:
#20- How much will the team improve on?
#19- What are the legit expectations for Jack Eichel?
#18- Should goaltending be a concern?
#17-Who will be the most improved player this season?
#16- Who will have a better season, Ryan O’Reilly or Evander Kane?
#15- Who should be on the Sabres 1st line?
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