With the season less than a week away, the time has come to make senseless predictions and look like complete morons when September rolls around. But making predictions are fun for the whole family- forecasting player stats, drafting fantasy teams based on potential, guessing player awards like MVP and Cy Young- its one of the accolades that culminate in another delectable baseball season. Since Evan is going to cover the AL East in the next few weeks, I??ve taken the duty of writing up an AL Central and AL West preview over the next two days. Today with the AL Central, which features the defending champion Chicago White Sox, the up-and-coming Cleveland Indians, the Leyland-led Detroit Tigers, the always solid Minnesota Twins and finally, well, the Kansas City Royals. Fill in any adjective that you wish.
5. Kansas City Royals (Predicted record: 58-104)
The RoyAAAls, as I like to call them, have made commendable moves this off-season, signing established and experienced veterans to surround a relatively young ball club. The World Series experience of Reggie Sanders should help anchor a lineup that was improved with Mark Grudzielanek holding down second base and Doug Mientkiewicz at first. For the Red Sox or Yankees, those two players are probably coming off the bench, but for the payroll-deflated Royals, these guys are huge additions. With the pressure way down, Sanders can very well hit 30 home runs and aid Doug Mientkiewicz in his search for the offensive production he lost in 2003. An underrated David DeJesus (.293, 9 HR, 56 RBI) could make a name for himself in Kansas City this season batting out of the leadoff hole at only 25 years old. The Royals do clench anxiousness for the future with Mark Teahen and Emil Brown, along with the raw-talented Billy Butler moving up the Royals farm system. And of course, the stable, loyal veteran DH Mike Sweeney will captain the team from first base,
The rotation is where the Royals go horribly wrong. The front office snatched the Indians fifth starter, Scott Elarton as their ace, which should give you a clue. The AL Central??s strong bats will lick their chops at facing this rotation, especially since Runelvys Hernandez, a gunner with some upside, reported to camp 30 pounds overweight. Mr. Mediocre Jeremy Affeldt and Joe Mays (6-10, 5.65) round out a ghastly rotation. Compound that with the fact someone named Ambiorix Burgos is listed as their closer. I??m not even sure what to make of that information.
Best scenario: 70-75 games won, finish close to out of the cellar
Worst scenario: Team is contracted near the All-Star break
Could surprise: Emil Brown
Could disappoint: Mike Sweeney
4. Detroit Tigers (Projected Record: 77-85)
The team I valiantly picked to win the division last season ended up hitting the wall and flopped to a disappointing campaign that got Alan Trammell fired. This year, even though I love the potential in that lineup, this division is stronger than it??s been in years. Curtis Granderson will be pushed into the role of leadoff man and starting centerfielder, a young, explosive player that will quickly become a fan favorite in Detroit. The middle of the lineup is a mix of savvy veterans, beginning with Placido Polanco, who flew out of the gate with Detroit after his trade last season. If Magglio and Pudge can stay healthy for the entire season, which I find highly unlikely, the Tigers might make a push for the wild card. But overall, the bottom of the lineup and the thin bench make me squint.
The addition of Kenny Rogers might backfire. He just doesn??t seem like a guy that would be willing to discuss the art of breaking ball pitches with Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth on a cross-country flight. For some odd, random, out-of-the-blue reason I just don??t get the impression he??s a nice guy, but who knows? I tried jumping on these young pitchers bandwagon last March, but I just don??t see Bonderman-Maroth-Robertson panning into anything but mediocre starters. Then again, if Justin Verlander, one of the games top pitching prospects, can smoke 99 MPH heat and win some big games, it will give this rocky rotation a much-needed boost. Another key factor will be if Todd Jones can repeat his steady effort in 2005.
Best scenario: Jim Leyland wins AL Manager of the Year; Tigers win Wild Card
Worst scenario: Kenny Rogers punches Detroit cameraman; cameraman fights back and beats Rogers to a pulp, costing them the season
Could surprise: Chris Shelton
Could disappoint: Ivan Rodriguez
3. Minnesota Twins (Projected Record: 88-74)
I love the balance in the Twins lineup, but there??s nobody I really fear. Two players have the potential to prove me wrong this season- Joe Mauer, the highly touted catching prospect who will finally get a full season, and Justin Morneau, who desperately needs to start hitting for a higher average and staying consistent. The speed of Shannon Stewart and Luis Castillo at the top of the lineup should help Joe Mauer have a monster year and contend for the top catcher in the American League. Unfortunately, Torii Hunter will likely be dealt around the deadline as one of the top commodities in July, which means the combination of Morneau, Tony Batista (another overweight appearance) Lew Ford and Jason Bartlett will have to carry the load. No thanks. Although the bench is viable with Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Nick Punto.
The Twinkies should be strong when it comes to pitching. Not only is Johan Santana the best pitcher in baseball, but the youthful arms of Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker will be tough to handle for those strong AL Central bats. Brad Radke had a losing season in 2005, but struggled with run support and should improve in 2006. And if Kyle Lohse can lessen the hits allowed this season, those five pitchers carry the load of a scary rotation. I even forgot to mention Carlos Silva and his 3.44 ERA. The Twins bullpen is also valuable with stud closer Joe Nathan and promising setup men Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain.
The Twins have a knack for developing strong players, and the nucleus they bring to the table for this season is superior. The mix of budding prospects and savvy veterans that know their role on the team should pay off. If this lineup can score enough runs to compete on a daily basis, this team can win the AL Central. No joke.
Best scenario: Mauer, Liriano, Kubel, Cuddyer, Morneau and Baker all exceed expectations
Worst scenario: The team loses 73 one-run games in 2006
Could surprise: Francisco Liriano
Could disappoint: Tony Batista
2. Cleveland Indians (Projected Record: 90-72)
The Indians have built a potential powerhouse for years to come. Mark Shapiro has done an impeccable job of building up a loaded farm system and acquiring talent through the trades of overpaid superstars (like Sizemore in the Colon trade). The meat of the Indians order will give opposing pitchers fits with the combination of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta and Aaron Boone (kidding). Grady Sizemore came into his own last season, acting as the spark for the fire that was Cleveland for much of August and September. Just wait till Andy Marte debuts in the majors. Basically, as long as the Tribe can get a hint of production from Broussard, Blake, Belliard and Boone, the offense will not be a problem.
Surprisingly, I??m not too impressed with the pitching staff. Sabathia is a #2 or 3 starter on a championship-caliber club in my mind, especially with that average 4.03 ERA. Cliff Lee??s record last season is Cy Young material, but Lee is still somewhat unproven and I have my doubts about whether he can deliver anywhere close to those numbers once again. Paul Byrd was a nice little story in Anaheim; he??ll be a bust in Cleveland. Like Cliff Lee, can the overweight and aging Bob Wickman really put up those numbers for a second straight season? He spent all of 2005 walking on a tight rope and keeping his balance?
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