By Andrew Lipsett
The 2006 Draft is right around the corner, and while this year’s draft doesn’t have the sparkling names of last years – There are no Justin Uptons, no Ryan Zimmermans, no Craig Hansens or Mike Pelfreys – It has a more even talent base that makes a later pick look a lot better than it did last season; there’s simply a smaller talent gap between the guy who will go #1 overall and the guy who will go #30 overall. This is a good thing for the Red Sox, who hold the 37th and 28th picks in this year’s draft. Today, I want to do a few things: first, I want to run down the field – look at the pitching/position player breakdown and the consensus top picks. Second, I want to point out a few interesting potential draftees at whom the Sox could have a shot. Finally, I want (briefly) to look at previous Epstein drafts, and draw a few conclusions about the FO’s strategy in this, their 4th amateur draft.
Part the First
This year’s draft crop is fascinating for a couple of reasons, the first being that there are no ‘star’ prospects on the board. Over the last several years, there’s been a consensus top group; last year’s list included guys with hype like Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Gordon, and Mike Pelfrey, among others. There’s always some level of agreement on the top guys in any draft, but this year those top guys don’t have the kind of electric scouting reports of the top picks in the last few drafts. There’s certainly talent there – LHP prospect Andrew Miller, for example, is as close to a consensus #1 pick as you’ll see this year (though the Royals may pass him over for a cheaper option). But there are fewer bulleted names here than in recent years.
The stunning lack of top-level position prospects, though, is probably the story of the draft to this point. There are a couple of standouts – California’s Evan Longoria, for example, or Texas OF Drew Stubbs, but the lack of positional talent is really stunning: of Baseball America’s top 10 overall prospects, only one – Longoria – is not a pitcher. That extends to just 5 of the top 20, an 8 of the top 30. In other words, most teams’ short-season affiliates will have a lot of rotation help this July. It’s remotely possible that this will cause a few teams to draft offensive players above their worth, but unlikely.
I’m not going to spend much time on the top picks; there are other sites – such as Baseball America, John Sickels, the Baseball Analysts – who know about 9 million percent more about all of these potential draftees than I do; anything I;’d write would just be aping them. That having been said; it appears that the first five or six picks are coalescing; Chances are that the Royals will take LHP Andrew Miller with the first selection, which would likely leave the Rockies with Evan Longoria. Brad Lincoln or Tim Lincecum would be a likely take for the D-Rays in the third spot; whichever of those two doesn’t get taken by TB would be the likeliest pick for Pittsburgh (though there’s always the chance that they could go for a high school arm like Clayton Kershaw). Luke Hochevar, a first-round pick last year who held out due to contract disputes, seems to be well-attached the the Mariners. But, then, all of that could change, so who knows.
Part the Second
The Red Sox have 4 picks in the top 50, all of them coming between 27 and 44. 27 is the Sox original pick, while they added additional ones with the departures of Johnny Damon (picks 28 and 40) and Bill Mueller (pick 44). While this doesn’t approach last year’s windfall (6 picks between #23 and #57) it’s a significant haul. Though some of the most exciting players will be long gone by the time the Sox make their first selection, there are a few people I want to highlight who might slip to the Sox or simply be available at #27.
Pedro Beato, 19, RHP, St. Petersburg, FL (JuCo)
The chances that Beato – a 2005 draft and follow who was expected to be signed by the Mets last week (but wasn’t) – falling to the Sox are remote. He’s a top talent, an excellent HS pitcher with an additional year of JuCo seasoning under his belt; he’s ranked as a mid-1st round talent and should end up there. There are, however, wild cards: for one, Beato is coming off Tommy John surgery in April of 2004, which was the primary reason the Mets took a wait-and-see attitude with him in last year’s draft. For another, he wasn’t heavily scouted because it was assumed to be a given that the Mets would end up signing him. Now that that hasn’t happened, though, there is all of a sudden a very athletic young pitcher with raw but potentially excellent stuff sitting on the board. He doesn’t fit the Sox mold, but if he were to drop that far, they’d have trouble saying no.
Brett Anderson, 18, LHP, Stillwater HS, OK
Everything about Anderson screams ‘Sox pick’ to me. Despite his young age, the Sox have said that they won’t shy away from HS pitchers who have a solid, repeatable motion. Anderson does. Additionally, and famously, the Epstein era has shown an affinity for the soft-tossing lefty. Anderson, a LHP, has a fastball that sits around 90 with a fantastic curve and a very good change, and throws all with excellent command. He could also be overlooked due to his body type. Anderson’s another who will likely be gone by pick 27, but if he’s not he certainly would seem to be a good fit.
Brett Sinkbeil, 21, RHP, Missouri State, MO
Sinkbeil’s stock has been rising slowly over the last few years, and he’s now considered to be among the best pitching prospects in the Midwest – a group that includes some of the top names in this year’s draft. He has heavy sinking stuff, but a slight injury history that might scare some away. He’s another with excellent control, and would likely be a very solid pick.
Justin Masterson, 21, RHP, San Diego State, CA
Last year, the Sox selected Craig Hansen – a college RP – in the first round. This year, they could do the same with Masterson, who has started but whose stuff seems to fit the pen.
Chris Parmelee, 18, 1B/OF, Chino Hills HS, CA
A power prospect – a type rarely found in the Sox organization – Parmelee also has excellent plate discipline, though it hasn’t been tested against college-level opposition. Though he’d be limited to defensive positions that didn’t require a ton of ability, his hitting ability makes him an attractive pick.
Matt Antonelli, 21, 3B, Wake Forest, IL
A Peabody native, Antonelli’s local roots – along with his plate discipline, solid defense, and contact ability make him a signature Epstein pick. Though he has little power, that has been something of a hallmark for this FO and likely isn’t a concern. He could conceivably move from 3rd to a number of other positions in the IF and OF.
Those are just a few of the players ranked in the top 30 that jumped out at me; the evenness – if uninspiring – quality of this year’s class means that the Sox will have to have a targeted plan. What that plan might be, I’ll address next.
Part the Third
The Epstein era of amateur drafts has been defined by two things: an affinity for mid-ceiling, high-stability, solid defensive position players, and the same for fundamentally-sound (preferably college) pitchers with minimal wear and tear on their arms. The top picks in each draft – David Murphy, Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Craig Hansen – all fit that mold. This draft class, however – dominated by pitching and with a stronger than usual high school contingent (at least comparatively) – means that those molds may have to be tweaked somewhat.
On the offensive side, the Sox system is now full with Epstein types; solid OBP guys with low power potential, good contact ability, and solid defense. Dustin Pedroia, Jed Lowrie, David Murphy, and Jacoby Ellsbury all fit this mold, and those four are the best positional prospects the system has to offer. Given that, and given the lack of power in the system as well, it’s possible that the Sox may opt to take more of a risk with this draft class, and look at players like Parmelee, 1B Matt LaPorta, or OF Travis Snyder – higher-ceiling power prospects with defensive question marks and a larger potential for failure. The goal of the FO was to build up the farm system to produce MLB-read talent rather than star talent, and in this they have succeeded; it may now be time to try to catch lightning with a riskier high-reward pick. If that’s the case, Matt LaPorta would be a very interesting selection, with possibly the best power and power potential in the draft. If, on the other hand, the Sox decide to stick with their strengths positionally, a player like Antonelli would seem an ideal fit. Regardless, the lack of strong positional players in the early rounds of this draft means that should the Sox select one, they’ll do so only if that player is at his value level. The risk in this draft will be to over-inflate position prospects and draft them ahead of their value; this is something the Sox avoid as a general rule at all levels.
Pitching, on the other hand, is almost too plentiful in this draft. There are no sure things, of course; while Miller, Lincoln, Lincecum, and others have very high ceilings, none come without distinct question marks. There’s also the issue of the high number of attractive HS pitchers on the board, a group that the Sox have tended to shy away from (aside from pitchers like Mike Rozier and Michael Bowden). If they go for a high schooler, he’ll likely be a guy with excellent mechanics and solid – if not amazing – stuff; if they opt for a college pitcher he’ll be someone who compliments plus stuff with excellent control and a lack of injury history. My best guess for the Sox is Sinkbeil, if he’s still available; the Sox can afford to go after pitchers who don’t profile anywhere higher than the middle of a major league rotation, and filling in complimentary players on either side of the ball is likely the best use of a farm system for a large media market club anyway.
Regardless of where they go, there’s enough talent in this draft to give us a shot at competitive players in all four of our top draft slots. It will be interesting to see, then, whether the FO sticks with the formula I’ve laid out above, or takes a riskier road with potential for a large payoff in a couple years. My best prediction would give us Sinkbeil and Antonelli with picks 27 and 28; both would be safer selections, leaving the more daring picks for the supplemental round. Both of those, however, would be excellent selections, and I especially hope I’m right when it comes to Sinkbeil. We’ll see come Wednesday.
In closing, I’d just like to say that I hope people actually do pay attention to this. It’s tough to keep track of guys that no one will hear of for a few years, if ever. But it’s worth it to see how prospects develop, to watch a guy go from a draftee to a mL player to a prospect and the changes and surprises along the way. Who knows; maybe one of the people we draft this week will be the next great Red Sox player. If he is, you can say you ‘knew’ him when.
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