2006 April to May: Inconsistency, that’s the name of the game

Below, you’ll find something I worked on for a while – I went through and found April/May statistics for everyone on the major league roster (except Mike Holtz and David Pauley) and pulled up their April/May splits. I also did this for a few notable minor leaguers. What I found, is that even though we keep winning, we do it with EVERYONE pitching in. When someone slumps, someone else picks up. It’s quite nice, actually. We’re not a team that depends on just one person. There are some surprising things here. For example, Rudy Seanez is our best reliever after Jonathan Papelbon in May. Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis are our only consistent hitters. Read on…

BOSTON RED SOX MONTH TO MONTH
Batters Key: Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging. Pitchers Key: Won-Lost/IP/ERA/WHIP.

PLAYER	APRIL	MAY	NOTES
Abe Alvarez	AAA 3-0/29.0/2.17/0.90	AAA 2-1/16.1/?/1.59 ML 0-0/3.0/12.00/2.33	There are no minor league ERA splits for month, so we don’t know Alvarez’s May ERA, but we can see enough that he pitched less, had a worse record, and a much worse WHIP. Looks like his hot start is fading, although he was up for a stint in mid-May that may have disrupted him.
Josh Beckett	3-1/32.0/4.50/1.25	4-1/36.2/4.42/1.12	We need to figure out a way to balance Beckett out! He ranges from completely unhittable to someone who looks like he’s making his first big-league start. The WHIP went down in his 2nd AL month, which bodes well.
Matt Clement	2-2/29.1/6.14/1.77	2-2/25.1/7.82/1.74	No improvement from Clement in May, we really have to wonder what is happening here. What happened to the 10 wins he amassed the first half of 2005? That guy didn’t just dissapear. Confidence? Injury? Whatever it is, we pray every day that the Clement we know is there returns. Until then, it’s maddening to see this.
Alex Cora	.200/.333/.300 20 AB	.333/.407/333 24 AB	The line change from April to May has AB added to it to show that Cora didn’t get that much more playing time in May than he did in April, so more consistent playing time is not a factor in better production. This is just the normal fluctuation of a backup middle infielder.
Coco Crisp	.333/385/458	.278/.316/.444	Crisp is finally back, and he’s not off to a fast start in May like he was in April. At least the finger woes haven’t sapped his power – now he just needs to work on making more consistent contact. With the shuffling of Youkilis recently, the plan to ease Crisp back into the leadoff spot hasn’t worked. He’s back to stay, now we’ll see where Youkilis settles in at.
Manny Delcarmen	AAA ?/10.0/0.00/0.80 ML 0-0/2.2/13.50/3.38	AAA ?/7.0/?1.00 ML 0-0/4.0/0.00/0.75	A rough April has led to a nice May, and Tito seems to be getting more trust in MDC, as he came in a close game the last game in Toronto and held the bats quiet. Too much of a small sample size to say much, but so far, so good.
Lenny DiNardo	0-1/18.1/7.36/1.96	1-1/7.0/6.43/2.29	His future seems to be as an above-average reliever, but he’s young enough to be our spot starter. Currently on the DL, when he returns, it’s possible he’ll be optioned to AAA, unless we option MDC/JVB to get a lefty in the pen.
Keith Foulke	2-1/17.0/3.71/0.76	0-0/12.0/5.25/1.42	Not a pretty May for Foulke. Foulke can still continue as a quality reliever (and I have a feeling he’ll bounce back very well next year, a full year after two knee surgeries) but for now he’s our top middle relief option and I think he can contribute valuable innings as the season trods on. One thing that I like is how Foulke is taking his demotion in stride – especially because he’s the first one to realize that Papelbon’s doing better than Foulke could.
Alex Gonzalez	.186/.275/243	.270/.317/.378	A-Gon picked it up in May. Sure, his overall line still is lousy, but take a hard look at his May line. We would definitely take that, as it’s above even his career averages. He’s suffering from a lack of power, however, but that, I believe, is a direct product of switching leagues – more breaking balls are thrown in the AL, so there are less fastballs to pummel.
Craig Hansen	AA 1-0/11.0/0.82/0.73	AAA (4/27-5/30) 0-1/19.2/2.29/?	Being stretched out as a starter, he may be called up to Boston eventually. Hansen may allow us to shift Papelbon into the rotation next year, but for this year, he’ll be a middle reliever if he does get up to Boston.
Willie Harris	.067/.263/.067	.263/.318/.316	Serving excellent as a top pinch-runner and late-inning defensive replacement, we’ve seen too much of Harris for our liking. That will continue now that we swapped Crisp for Pena, but once Pena returns, Harris will become the last man on a suddently deep and versatile bench.
Jon Lester	AAA 0-4/11.2/6.94/1.80	AAA 3-0/31.0/?/1.23	Restricted pitch counts didn’t help Lester in AAA, but he busted out in May as he’s been turned loose. Next stop: The Bronx next week? Stay tuned, but Lester hasn’t done anything so far to diminish his ceiling.
Mark Loretta	.218/.282/.297	.404/.442/.495	What a hot May for Loretta! He’s not as good as this, but he certainly isn’t as bad as his April suggested. This seems here to be law of averages balancing out, and hopefully we see more consistent production from Loretta from hereinout. He’s certainly been a topnotch #2 batter and solid defensively.
Mike Lowell	.318/.371/.511	.316/.374/.612	Ah, consistency. More of the same from Lowell, who is rejuvenated in Boston. Suddenly, that $9 million tag doesn’t look so onerous, not when you’re hitting over .300 and slugging well north of .500 in addition to Gold Glove defense. Lowell quietly has pulled this offense together and made this offense balanced.
Doug Mirabelli	.182/.308/.227	.154/.241/.231	Mirabelli’s offensive struggles make me wonder if the Sox traded him precisely because they knew his offensive days were behind him. However, the Sox soon realized (incorrectly, in my opinion, but psyche goes a long way in baseball) they needed Mirabelii for Wakefield. What’s going to happen when Mirabelli retires and Wakefield plods on? Meanwhile, Josh Bard just cranked a 400+ ft home-run in San Diego, among the longest ever at Petco Park.
Trot Nixon	.311/.419/.508 61 AB	.286/.404/.418 91 AB	Studying pitches with a judicious eye, Nixon has so far been able to stay away from debilitating injury and been a rock in right field. Perhaps we’ll resign him, but there’s quietly been no word from either side of Trot Nixon returning to the Hub of the Universe.
David Ortiz	.278/.391/.639 10 HR	.255/.333/.469 5 HR	Ortiz struggled through a subpar May (oh, how many ballplayers would kill to have the May he did…) and needs to pick it up soon if he wants to beat A-Rod out for the MVP crown. He usually heats up in the summer, so I think good things are coming. We’ll need it with the Tigers and Yankees hosting us in their cities.
Jonathan Papelbon	0-0/14.1/0.00/0.79 10 SV	0-1/12.2/0.71/0.55 9 SV	His WHIP went DOWN in May, and he gave up one run. What more needs to be said about this guy, who right now, should be a lock for not only Rookie of the Year, but the Cy Young Award? Okay, so there’s four months to go in baseball, I realize that, but it’s possible we’ve found our answer to Mariano Rivera.
Dustin Pedroia	AAA .255/.364/.383	AAA .256/.343/.344	Power hasn’t returned yet, perhaps we should prepare for life as we were supposed to: Pedroia with good contact and eye, but no power. An injury to any of our infielders may see the arrival of Pedroia in Beantown.
Wily Mo Pena	.277/.340/.553	.354/.392/.431	If we trade Wily Mo Pena, it needs to be for a bonafide ace or for a top offensive SS (like Nomar Garciaparra, Hanley Ramirez, or Edgar Renteria…). Otherwise, keep him, because his production in the absence of Coco Crisp was tremendous, and we may have found our next big slugger.
Manny Ramirez	.276/.417/.448 4 HR	.333/.453/.714 9 HR	His April was pretty good, but his May? He more than doubled his HR output from April and put aside fears of Manny getting older. While I believe he’ll take longer and longer to click into his groove each year as he goes older, I also have no doubt that each year he’ll still wind up with staggering totals. With his newfound hustle in the outfield (his disgusting indifference in the 5th inning of David Pauley’s start notwithstanding) … contract extension, anyone?
David Riske	0-0/1.0/18.00/2.00	0-1/2.2/6.75/1.13	Can’t really say much about Riske here. The jury is still completely out. He only has 3.2 IP to his name. I espect that June will tell us a lot about who exactly we have in Riske.
Curt Schilling	4-1/40.2/2.88/0.96	4-1/32.2/5.23/1.22	Not exactly a pretty May, but Schilling steadily improved as the month trod on. He should still continue being the ace of our staff, but expecting April numbers through the rest of the season would be foolhardy on our part.
Rudy Seanez	0-0/9.1/8.68/1.93	0-0/11.0/1.64/1.36	Look at the statistics carefully. Can we stop slamming Rudy Seanez now? Okay, I do realize that he can just as easily revert to his April numbers, but he had to readjust to the AL, he had a slow start (that happens, you know) and whenever you strike out more batters than innings you pitch, you’re good. I don’t expect him to keep up his May statistics, but Rudy Seanez IS a good reliever, and we WILL depend on him.
J.T. Snow	.158/.360/.158 19 AB	.364/.364/.364 11 AB	He’s quietly gone about his business, but I have to imagine this season is really tough on him. He may be traded, he may not be. I think with Youkilis’ production, we may have suddenly lost the need to carry a backup first baseman, which will help our bench versatality, but the fact that he bats left-handed and serves as insurance is good, especially if Lowell or Youkilis go down to injury.
Adam Stern	AAA .219/.324/.281 ML .150/.190/.200	AAA .247/.307/.366	Stern has yet to impress in AAA. For all the people who wanted him in the majors – this is why. Hopefully he finds his stroke soon, because he’d make a great fourth OF eventually. I don’t forsee him returning to the majors before September if all goes well.
Julian Tavarez	0-0/8.1/5.40/1.32	0-1/14.2/3.68/1.70	With more work, Tavarez has started evening out and should be a fine option in middle relief going forward. You can do much worse with a longman in baseball, and I have a feeling that the fact that he’s very good friends with Manny Ramirez has played a role in Manny’s hard play so far this year.
Mike Timlin	2-0/9.1/1.93/1.71	1-0/10.0/0.90/0.80	We just lost Mike Timlin to shoulder fatigue, but I prefer to call it “oldmanitis” because that’s really what it is. Timlin has been an absolute rock for us these last several years, and this year we really have to take care to not overwork him. He should still remain the primary setup man, but I’m hopeful Foulke and Seanez step up (as they have) in his absence to create another option to save Timlin’s arm for these crisp October nights.
Jermaine Van Buren	AAA ?/6.0/0.00/0.83 ML 0-0/3.0/3.00/1.00	AAA ?/9.1/?/1.07 ML 1-0/3.1/0.00/1.20	He may have a very odd wind-up, but he’s put up a cumulative 1.42 ERA in 6.1 IP of work. While he and a lot of other PawSox relievers will be up and down all year, Van Buren so far has the best statistics out of all our young relievers.
Jason Varitek	.250/.345/.375	.230/.329/.419	Varitek had an eye and contact in April, but May has been about power. It’s too early to say whether or not he’s started feeling the advances of age on a catcher. We certainly hope not, because he has two more years and $20 million more due to him, but the numbers are a bit sobering right now. A hot June will do very nicely, thank you.
Tim Wakefield	1-4/32.1/3.90/1.27	3-2/40.2/4.20/1.30	Wakefield has so far been pretty darned good this year, and has truly been the only consistent factor in the rotation so far this year. However, that’s not a good thing. We should have 5 consistent spots, not 1. But thanks, Tim, for at least giving us one.
David Wells	AAA 0-1/5.0/?/12.60 ERA ML 0-1/4.0/15.75/2.75	AAA 1-0/5.0/?/1.00 ML 0-0/4.1/2.08/1.15	Losing Wells again as hurt, and we need him to return as soon as possible and get some stability in our unstable rotation. A trade isn’t out of the realm of possibility either, but we need Wells back!
Kevin Youkilis	.299/.406/.414	.333/.463/.545	Wow. Just … wow. Really taking to the leadoff spot, how can anyone possibly find any fault with Youk in April and May? Youkilis needs to be very, very strongly considered for an All-Star spot, and I can’t believe it took us this long to come around on Youk. Why didn’t we do this last year? Alas, better late than never. Yooouuuuuuuuk!

NOT INCLUDED:
Mike Holtz – on the DL, only pitched in May, and we’ll forget about him quickly.
David Pauley – One start so far, which we all know about. He’ll get MAYBE one more, and then (hopefully) we won’t hear from him again this year, but I look forward to Pauley’s productive career.