2007 Could Dictate Theo’s Future

Since Keith Foulke tossed the final out of the 2004 World Series to Doug Mientkiewicz, Theo Epstein’s pattern of development as general manager of the Red Sox has been as alarming as a botched John Kerry joke. The boy wonder, the second JFK, the composer of the first champion in 86 years was seemingly invincible and pulling all the right moves.

Then something happened. We donÌt know if it was an ego that doubled in size, flawed scouting or simply bad luck, but the off seasons of 2004 and up till 2006 have been regrettable for Epstein. HeÌs surely endured his fair share of criticism after questionable moves like the signing Edgar Renteria and Matt Clement for 80 million plus combined, breaking up the nucleus of the 2004 squad, letting Pedro walk, trading our best prospect for Coco Crisp and the Bard-Meredith debacle. Some decisions, to be fair, are yet to be determined. WeÌre only one year into the Beckett era and even that is not off to a dashing start.

Still, enough worked out in 2005 for the Red Sox to nearly take the division backed by a ferocious offensive attack and receive a playoff birth. Fans were somewhat forgiving, but still wondered whether certain moves ultimately led to their demise, like a lack of starting pitching and strong bullpen. The Sox marched into 2006 until they hit a skid right around the All-Star break after an injury monsoon and rabid inconsistency that hit its climax during a five-game sweep at the hands of New York in August. Now TheoÌs free pass in Boston had expired. He was left with a team with gaping holes to plug and a fan base that wouldnÌt stand for two straight years of third place baseball.

So far this winter, Theo has snagged J.D. Drew, who should prove a dynamic #5 hitter in Fenway hitting after Ortiz and Ramirez (although I LOVE the idea of Drew hitting 2nd, although that will never happen). Drew is a player who undoubtedly is one of the top 30 players in baseball when heÌs healthy, reaching the 100 RBI plateau last season and getting on base at an impressive .393 clip. His OPS the last 3 years is higher than Alex Rodriguez. Fenway could jolt his numbers even higher. I could go on and on about the great things Drew brings to the table, as we did for Renteria, Clement, Crisp and others, but the performance will judge the effectiveness of the signing. And itÌs all a reflection on Theo Epstein.

Theo also signed one Julio Lugo, whom I always remember beating us up at Fenway as a member of the Devil Rays, to fill the hole Alex Gonzalez left. HeÌs our sixth shortstop since the beginning of 2004 (if you count Pokey due to NomarÌs injury), a number Epstein is surely embarrassed about. While LugoÌs free-spirited, crazy attitude will likely equal a much more successful campaign in Boston than Renteria experienced, the similarities and comparisons are still there for discussion. Being a GM in Boston and trying to create the right group of players not only to perform on the baseball field but also react to the pressure and expectations of the fans is an extremely difficult task. Theo mastered that art in 2004, and now heÌs attempting to re-create the right combination again. Just without the Jack Daniels.

Let us not forget, and itÌs difficult in this time of anxiety, Daisuke Matsuzaka, the greatest pitcher to ever come out of the new baseball factory known as Japan. HeÌs been projected to succeed greatly in the big leagues and maintain the frontline of a starting rotation for years and years at his ripe age of 26. Thankfully Epstein heard the fans calling for a winner and spent 51.1 million for the bidding rights to Matsuzaka, spurning the Mets and Yankees. Joy in Boston. Thank you, Theo. And now when it starts to feel like thereÌs slivers of possibility a deal is not struck, Matsuzaka goes back to Japan for two years, and the Red Sox are left with no improvements to a glaring weakness, the heater has just been jacked up in EpsteinÌs office. To avoid utter disaster around Red Sox Nation, Matsuzaka needs to be signed.

“But, if Matsuzaka cannot be signed, if the bullpen is not shored up, if Drew and Lugo fall on their ass all year, Red Sox fans across the globe will start calling for Theo’s head…”

The bullpen right now stands as Mike Timlin, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Julian Tavarez, Hideki Okajima, Bryan Corey and Kyle Snyder. I’m not saying this will happen, but if the Red Sox enter April 3 with this as their bullpen makeup, you can eliminate them from playoff contention. Conversation over. Theo is truly trying to make a valiant effort and sign a setup man and closer, but he seems to be running out of options and time. The Orioles gobbled up three relievers we showed interest in. We werenÌt willing to guarantee Gagne enough cash for a contract. The plan for the pen is up in the air, floating somewhere around Fenway Park, but nobody can locate it. Maybe Theo knows. Right now I’m not so sure we didn’t change the dial on Papelbon one year early.

And thus we reach the deciding campaign for Epstein and his cohorts. I’m not at all suggesting Theo is on the hot seat yet. HeÌs done many remarkable things to embolden the structure of our organization that Duquette left in shambles, such as an above-average farm system, strong drafts, genius moves like Ortiz, Schilling and the Nomar trade and most recently extending our arms into Japan. But, if Matsuzaka cannot be signed, if the bullpen is not shored up, if Drew and Lugo fall on their ass all year, Red Sox fans across the globe will start calling for his head and some of those memories from years past will begin to move slowly out of their minds. The off-season where Epstein seemingly collected players with the biggest risk, some wrong turns will create much controversy.

2007: A year where the Red Sox look to gain their credibility back after a third place finish, and a year where Theo Epstein’s decisions need to prove serviceable and beneficent. If these moves bomb, the Boy Wonder of 2004 will be feeling some sweltering heat.