200HR

I had difficulty understanding the pervasive concern about the Sox offense in 2009. It seems that with J.D.’s back, Papi & Lowrie’s wrist, and Mike’s hip, media and fans alike started to believe the sky was finally falling.

The loss of Manny, then Teixeira, followed by the Veritek offseason angst (all orchestrated by obvious Sox hater Steve (sic) Boras) exacerbated this ennui. Even now some of our best and brightest sports writers and talking heads still report breathlessly about the physical shortcomings of this lineup. To which I say check the facts.

Of course the worst could happen, and it usually does (see Utley, A-Rod, Ichiro), but the Sox start this Monday with J.D, Lowell, Lowrie, Papi & Tek healthier and in better shape than in a long time.

According to SI.com 2008 team stats, the Red Sox finished first in the American League East in the following categories: AB, H, BB, R, RBI, 2B, OBP, SLG, OPS and BA. The Rays finished first in 3B, SB AND CS, and tied with the Yankees with 180HR. The Sox had 173. The Red Sox, despite 6 starting hitters truly playing hurt, and missing games on the DL, were far and away the best hitting team in this brutal division.

I suggest that, with everyone relatively healthy, they will find it easier to repeat this amazing performance.

The emergence as hitters of Pedroia (17HR, .376OBP), Youkilis (29HR, .390OBP), and Bay (9/32HR, .370OBP) was largely ignored in this discussion about the ‘power shortage.’ Also ignored was how well, in limited AB’s, Papi (23HR, .369OBP, Mike (17HR, .338), and J.D.(19HR, .408OBP) managed to hold themselves together through the season and into the playoffs. Isn’t it logical that, healthy, they will combine for an additional 20-30HR in 2009? Plus, could the additions of Baldelli, Kottaras, Kotsay, Lugo, Carter, Green to the bench, and a more mature Ellsbury and Lowrie, add another 40 or so? This a certainly a more powerful, versatile and deeper lineup than the one in 2008 . . . which led the division in almost every offensive category.

No matter how the numbers are crunched, it appears that this team will have a difficult time NOT hitting 200HR, which is only 27 more than last year’s 173.

In fact, the Yankees need only 20 more. Can Teixeira, Nady, Swisher and a healthy Posada make up for the power losses of Abreu and Giambi?
Could the league see two 200HR teams?

Perhaps, but it seems equally likely to be prevented by significant pitching upgrades by the Sox, Rays & Yankees. In fact, this new assemblage of pitching talent may cause everyone’s #’s to decline, but even so, there is every reason to believe the Sox will maintain their lead position.