2010 Terrelle Pryor > 2005 Troy Smith?

2010 Terrelle Pryor > 2005 Troy Smith?

Although there is still a game or two left between various college football teams around the country, for Ohio State and its fans, the waiting game has begun.

Having put the finishing touches on an 11-1 regular season with a convincing 37-7 victory over Michigan on Saturday, the Buckeyes now wait to see who and where they will be playing in their bowl game.

At the moment, the most likely destination is the Sugar Bowl against an SEC opponent (likely Arkansas). But until the bowl selections are officially released, everything is uncertain.

Rather than looking forward into the unknown, I thought I would take a moment to look back at how the regular season went for the team.

Each year, I have ridiculously high expectations for the Buckeyes in the preseason. So high, in fact, that it is almost impossible for the team or the players to live up to them (thankfully, I have video games to take care of that).

I, along with most other Ohio State fans, had particularly high hopes for Terrelle Pryor following the Rose Bowl. So, how has he lived up to those lofty expectations?

Read on for a look at Pryor’s 2010 season, how it compares to some previous Ohio State greats (see the title), and some speculation about the future.

Terrelle Pryor

2010 Terrelle Pryor > 2005 Troy Smith?

The quarterback is the most scrutinized player on the football field, regardless of who the player is or what team they play on.

When the quarterback in question happens to be the most hyped high school athlete in recent memory and the team he plays on happens to be the Ohio State Buckeyes… well, let’s just say the scrutiny can get a bit out of hand.

Welcome to Terrelle Pryor’s 2010 season.

With two years of experience as the starting quarterback, three years of pre-season hype,  and an MVP performance in the Rose Bowl, fans were expecting big things in 2010… National Championship things.

Obviously, the National Championship expectations did not pan out, but for the most part, Terrelle Pryor had a good year. Did he live up to expectations? At this point, that may be impossible for him no matter what he does, but he did improve statistically in almost every area.

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
2008 100 165 60.6 1311 12 4
2009 167 295 56.6 2094 18 11
2010 196 298 65.8 2551 25 11

Clearly, from a year to year basis, Pryor has made outstanding strides across the board, and he still has one game left in 2010 to pad those stats a bit more.

The only potential negative is interceptions staying relatively high the past two seasons. However, given the nature of some of those interceptions this year (unnecessarily forcing throws into the endzone against not very good teams), it is somewhat forgivable that the number has not gone down.

Looking closer at the game to game stats,  Pryor absolutely terrorized bad defenses in 2010, particularly at home:

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
Marshall 17 25 68 247 3 0
Ohio 22 29 75.9 235 2 2
EMU 20 26 76.9 224 4 0
Indiana 24 30 80 334 3 0
Purdue 16 22 72.7 270 3 2
@ Minn 18 22 81.8 222 2 1
Total 117 154 76 1532 17 5

However, on the road and in high pressure games, Pryor’s stats drop noticeably:

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
Miami 12 27 44.4 233 1 0
@ Illinois 9 16 56.3 76 2 1
@ Wisc 14 28 50 156 0 1
Penn St 8 13 61.5 139 2 1
@ Iowa 18 33 54.5 195 1 2
Mich 18 27 66.7 220 2 1
Total 79 144 54.9 1019 8 6

While you could say that I am just dividing Pryor’s good games and his bad games, clearly there is a pattern in Pryor’s “bad” games.

2010 Terrelle Pryor > 2005 Troy Smith?

They are all either on the road (Illinois, even though weather was a factor),  against good teams (Iowa, Wisconsin), or in high pressure situations (Miami, Penn State, Michigan)… or some combination of the three.

What explains the “bad” games, then? Is Pryor just not good under pressure?

I personally think Pryor is  in limbo between being a game manager (a la Craig Krenzel) and dominating teams through the air (a la Troy Smith 2006). Tressel has relied more and more on Pryor passing to win games, but he still has some work to do, as evidenced by the stats above.

Pryor can beat teams with his arm, he just didn’t do it very efficiently in 2010.

Before everyone jumps on Pryor for bad performances in big games, it is important to remember a few things. First, (and most importantly) the team won all but one of the games in which he under performed.

Second, he is only a junior.

To take the “he is only a junior” line of thought a bit further (and to bring this around to the title of the article), it is worth comparing Pryor’s junior season with Troy Smith’s in 2005 (even though Smith was a fourth year junior and had an extra year in the system).

Pryor’s ‘bad’ games are noted above, here are some of Troy Smith’s clunkers from 2005:

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
SD St 14 26 53.8 149 0 1
@ Penn St 13 25 52 139 0 1
@ Indiana 14 23 60.9 226 1 1
Nwestern 7 12 58.8 77 0 1

You don’t remember those performances, do you? I didn’t.

Smith clearly struggled at times in 2005, a point that many fans may forget. Something that fans don’t forget, however, is how much Smith improved between 2005 and 2006.

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
2005 149 237 62.9 2282 16 4
2006 203 311 65.3 2542 30 6

Is it unreasonable to think Pryor will make similar strides between his junior and senior season (assuming he comes back)? The bowl game will be an important indication one way or the other.

Troy Smith capped off his 2005 season by absolutely demolishing Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. His outstanding performance in that game not only kicked off his 2006 Heisman campaign, but also got the ball rolling for the Buckeyes’ regular season run as the wire to wire #1 team in the country.

Expecting Pryor to do something similar is admittedly a lofty expectation.

Lofty, but not unreasonable.

Passing Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Int
Smith ’05 149 237 62.9 2282 16 4
Smith ’06 203 311 65.3 2542 30 6
Pryor ’10 196 298 65.8 2551 25 11

Looks good to me. You can draw your own conclusions.

2010 Terrelle Pryor > 2005 Troy Smith?

Pryor’s drop in production against quality opponents is concerning. However, it is all part of growing and improving as a quarterback. Look at Smith’s struggles in 2005 for reference.

As Pryor has earned the trust of the coaches, Tressel has relied on him more and more to win games with his arm. At times, Tressel may have relied a bit too much (see: Wisconsin), but for the most part, Pryor has responded and led the team to victory, even if his completion percentage wasn’t the best against some of the better defenses.

Will Pryor continue to improve and become more efficient in the biggest games against the best teams like Troy Smith did?

As I mentioned, the bowl game will tell us a lot.

Here’s hoping that history repeats itself.

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