2011 B1G Preview: Northwestern

Since 2000, Northwestern fans have known what to expect on the court to start the basketball season. A constant struggle in the Big Ten. A Princeton offense that had yet to fully see the proper personnel to completely flourish under head coach Bill Carmody. Finally in 2008, things started to come together. After a 17-14 record to finish the season, the Wildcats went into 2009 strong. After the defeat of back to back top 25 teams (Michigan State, Minnesota), the Wildcats became ranked in December, for the first time since 1969. Northwestern would ride that momentum into 2010, when the Wildcats battled within the conference all year long.

Ohio State fans can attest to their ability to stay in ballgames. After a one point win over the purple machine in late January, the Wildcats battled with the Buckeyes to overtime in the Big Ten Tournament.

Gone though is the heart of the Wildcat offense in Juice Thompson, who made the Princeton attack flow. The Wildcats didn’t just lose a hard working scrapper turned top notch point guard for the Northwestern system — they have to replace the production of the all-time assists leader in NU history. He went from being a scrappy defender to one of the biggest clutch shooters in school history. Most importantly, he gave the Wildcats control of the ballgame.  Thompson played a major part in the 1.7 assist to turnover ratio last season, which was the second best in the nation to Big Ten foe Wisconsin.

Though a lot of talent returns to this team, Northwestern basketball will still have an uphill battle during the 2011-12 season.  Every year, Chicago’s Big Ten team battles with the fact that expectations are low no matter who takes the court. Another winning season, with a better showing in Big Ten play, could finally change the identity of a school best known for it’s struggles and inability to compete at a high level.

There is always something strange about watching a team that wears purple uniforms competing on the court. What’s even more strange is that this team has a chance to be above .500 for the fourth straight year. They also have the talent to make a run in the NCAA tournament, if everything comes together.

Last Season:

After starting the year 9-1 in non-conference play, it looked like the Wildcats had a shot at making some noise in Big Ten play. After losing three straight in conference to ranked opponents (MSU, Purdue, Illinois), Northwestern got on track winning three of their next four.  But losing in streaks would cost the Wildcats, as they would drop three in a row again to ranked opponents (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota). From that point it was a mediocre 5-5 finish, which meant the Wildcats needed a long run in the Big Ten Tournament for any hopes of making it to the dance. They would beat Minnesota in the opening round, but couldn’t get past Ohio State in the second.

Juice Thompson and John Shurna would then lead the Wildcats to the NIT quarterfinals after wins over UW Milwaukee and Boston College. The season would come to a end after losing a heart breaker to Washington State in overtime. Northwestern would finish 18-13 and 7-11 in the Big Ten.

Key Player:

Heading into the 2011-12 season, there is no doubt that forward John Shurna is the heart and soul of this team. He has the talent to play at the next level someday, but that’s not what really separates him from opponents.  If head coach Bill Carmody asked the senior to run through a brick wall — if it meant winning, Shurna would do it.  His toughness meant playing through injuries last season, and though he was effective, 2011 should be a better all-around season for Northwestern’s leader. That is if the guards on this team can get him the basketball. Last year he scored a bit more than 20% of the teams points. In 2011-12 it wouldn’t be surprising if he scored 35 % or more.  He does a good job of getting to the hoop, but mainly the thing that separates him from others is his excellent shot and basketball IQ.

He does an excellent job of finding open lanes to get the ball to open teammates, and though his game is very basic, he has a very strong grasp on what he can do. That might sound important, but not trying to do too much on the floor makes his team that more productive.

Here are a look at his stats through three seasons, thanks to the great folks at Wildcat Fix:

New Player to Keep an Eye on:

What’s the best way to replace Juice Thompson in your offense if your Bill Carmody? How about have the guard work with your incoming recruits to help them grasp the Princeton. Thompson was on hand this summer to work with newcomers Tre Demps and Dave Sobolewski to teach them the offense.

The player that seems to be the best fit to fill the role is Sobolewski, who is a 6’1″ guard that has experience on and off the ball. He also has the range to guard small forwards as well as quick point guards. It’s his versatility that gives him a good shot at contributing as a freshman. What makes him so good as well is his ability to adjust to the game.  Scott Bowers of ESPN Chicago broke down his maturation on the court in March. When it comes down to it, his basketball IQ makes teammates better. His passing ability opens up cheap buckets and his court vision keeps the ball in his team’s hands.

Big Games on the Schedule:

The Wildcats have a rather forgivable non-conference schedule, but things get started right away in the Charleston Classic on November 17th against the LSU Tigers. From there, Northwestern will take on is the likes of Georgia Tech in the Big Ten/ACC challenge on November 29th.  The rest of the non-conference schedule features a tough Baylor team on December 4th and wraps up with the Creighton Blue Jays on December 22nd.

Conference play opens up against the mighty Buckeyes, and after what should be an evenly matched Penn State match-up to start the new year, the Wildcats have arguably the toughest stretch of any Big Ten team in conference play. Northwestern will battle Illinois, Michigan on the road, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road, and will wrap up the stretch by taking on Purdue at home.

Outlook for this Season:

Northwestern is one of the hardest teams in the Big Ten to forecast, because they have some talent to do some damage. No matter where they finish, they will compete night in and night out. The question is, can they control possession with the personnel they have. This team lacks a big man that can take over in the post, but the offense they run really doesn’t call for it. John Shurna is a great player with a unique skill set. He isn’t the type though that can take over a team. The Wildcats will need to find others, such as junior guard Drew Crawford to play to full potential. If Shurna doesn’t get any support, it could be a long year for the Wildcats.

Where They’ll Finish:

It’s hard to picture Northwestern making a run for the NCAA tournament, and quite honestly it’s hard to see them winning many games against the top competition within the Big Ten. It isn’t out of question to think they can be good enough for an invite to the NIT.

If they can pull out their first .500 or better in the conference since the 2033-2004 season, it would be an impressive feat. This team though can compete with nearly any team in the conference and could create some good upsets and intriguing battles down the stretch of the season.