2011 Redskins Free Agency Analysis: Secondary

There were just two positions on the team where the Redskins decided — likely before the end of last season — that they weren’t playing another game unti they upgraded these positions.  One of these positions was the linebacker opposite Brian Orakpo: the Redskins knew that they were going to release Andre Carter, and they were going to pick a pass rusher high in the draft.

The other position was more complicated, and so when the Redskins had a chance to add a released, vested-veteran before the lockout hit, they did so with former Jim Haslett binky O.J. Atogwe.

We’ll review the merits of that signing below as well as to take a look at what the Redskins really accomplished in their defensive backfield this offseason.

Incumbent Redskin Defensive Backs: CB DeAngelo Hall, CB Kevin Barnes, FS Kareem Moore, SS LaRon Landry, SS Chris Horton

Departures: CB Carlos Rogers (signed for 1 year/$4 million with San Francisco)

Redskins DBs added via the draft: FS DeJon Gomes, CB Brandyn Thompson

Free Agent Signings: Re-signed CB Byron Westbrook (1 yr), re-signed CB Philip Buchanon (1 yr), re-signed S Reed Doughty (3 yrs), signed FS OJ Atogwe (Rams), signed CB Josh Wilson (3 yrs, $13.5 million).  Could still sign CB Kelvin Hayden (Colts).

If the Redskins improve at all in the secondary over last year, it will simply be a case of addition by subtraction.  CB DeAngelo Hall is coming off a career year of sorts, and certainly his best full season as a Redskin.  Depending on you look at it, this could be construed as good news for the team: they got DHall’s best season under the contract Vinny Cerrato signed him to in 2009, but the gains made were simply not sustainable (the Redskins don’t play the Bears this year), and the Redskins will have to factor in some regression from the position in 2011.

FS Kareem Moore was simply not good at all in 2010, and the Redskins hope that replacing him in the lineup yields better coverage and less horrific tackling.  Hence: addition by subtraction.  The problem with this is that the Redskins may have created a team wide coverage problem by targeting Atogwe to fix the problem.  The Redskins reallly, really need to go find a good coverage safety.  Atogwe, though, is more of the classic “nose for the football” type safety who offers really good instincts to find the football, but his actual range in coverage is rather lacking.  There is no question that Atogwe is a better player than Moore will ever be, and some fans will be satisfied with this kind of upgrade.  To me, it ignores the reals source of the upgrade: less Moore.  Atogwe is still a starting-level player, but who knows if that will be true in 2013 (if not 2012)?  His long term contract is basically a two year guarantee, with three option years.

It is possible that Haslett would have targeted Atogwe over all others in the free agent market, but there were, by my count, six cover safeties that would have been better fits who hit the market after the lockout.  Only Eric Weddle and Michael Huff exceeded the annual value that Atogwe got in his contract, meaning the Redskins could have picked up a cover safety like Brodney Pool or Donte Whitner for far less than they paid Atogwe.  I think Atogwe’s signing is more likely to hurt than help the Redskins in the long term.  Still, I’ve complained in the past about the Redskins not having enough smart players on their team, and Atogwe, if nothing else, is a bright guy back there in the secondary.

The Redskins signed Josh Wilson to a contract that looked really, really good at the time.  He’ll get four and a half million per year from the Redskins to start at cornerback for the next three years, the rare contract where Wilson is near certain to see the total value of the contract paid to him.  But on further examination, this is a much more player friendly deal than I originally realized.  Wilson will hit the market again in 2014 (right, you know, as the new television deals are taking effect, growing the NFL’s revenue pool by 50 to 70%), and he’ll be nearly impossible to keep at that point unless the Redskins use the franchise tag or pay him like a no. 1 CB.  Wilson will be 29, and in the prime of his career ready to cash in on the biggest contract of his career after making a good salary from the Redskins for three years.  That’s really good work by his agent.

In the meantime, the Redskins get a capable no. 2 CB who fits in their scheme and offers the big play that Carlos Rogers never could.  Make no mistake though: the last time Carlos Rogers played in a scheme where he could get up and press the receiver (2008), he posted a completion percentage against better than what Wilson did in 2010.  Statiscially, Wilson is bound to regress heavily in 2011.  That doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense for the Redskins: Wilson can play corner in pretty much any scheme, and he has more to offer over the next three years than Carlos Rogers does.  Let’s just be careful to assume that there is an upgrade happening here.  Rogers was a top 15 cover corner in the NFL.  That is the ceiling and hope for the Redskins upon signing him.  It’s a good contract, but if it had been four years instead of three, it would have been a great contract.

Getting Phillip Buchanon back is also a really big signing for the Redskins: this coverage scheme fits Buchanon like a glove: he was a well, well above average player for the Redskins in 2010.  The thing is, assuming the Redskins play the same scheme in 2011 that they did in 2010, I wouldn’t expect Buchanon to regress any.  His performance struck me as sustainable.

Cornerback is a very deep unit in Washington.  It’s probably going to regress from 2010 because it’s hard to see Wilson improving upon Rogers’ work from 2010 (maybe statistically because he won’t be tasked with the slot corner job — that will be Barnes’ job), but by losing a versatile player in Rogers, and with the expected regression from Hall, this unit is going to be average at best in 2011.  I still like the offseason they had though, and I feel like the performance of this unit has no place to go but up from here, which is not something I would have said with Hall and Rogers at the corners a year ago.

The safeties could also be a worse unit for the Redskins in 2011 than in 2010, because LaRon Landry’s achillies injury is starting to worry us all.  He’s the one irreplacable piece on the Redskins defense, and with him in the unit, they appeared to be improving on a rough start in 2010.  Without him, they hit rock bottom around Week 13.  If Landry is out for a part of this season, having Atogwe back there will be more useful than if he was paired with Landry, as planned.  This is simply because Atogwe’s presence in the secondary improves if he can freelance around others, using his instincts to make plays on the football.  He can do this if he’s surrounded by complementary parts such as Chris Horton, Kareem Moore, DeJon Gomes, or Reed Doughty.  With Landry in the fold, I feel like Atogwe’s job here could best be described as “damage control”.  If Landry misses two of the first four weeks, it wouldn’t shock me to see Atogwe have some really nice games (couple of INTs) in his abscence.

Still, I just don’t know about this group as a whole.  I like it for the future: Doughty is locked up, Atogwe is locked up, and it looks really good if Gomes makes the roster, but of course, the key will be working with LaRon Landry’s contract situation in spite of his Achillies injury.  This could get tricky, but he’s the one Cerrato acquisition they need to lock up (and we all hope Fred Davis joins that discussion soon).

I think that the Redskins secondary could be a problem spot in 2011, much like it was in 2010 and 2009 as well.  I think the long term projections are much more favorable to this unit.  Josh Wilson seems like he’ll be a good player the next two years regardless of scheme choice or what becomes of him this year.  D-Hall is on a year to year basis in Washington: if he keeps playing like a top corner, they’ll keep bringing him back, but they likely won’t put up with his antics if his performance slips.  Philip Buchanon is on a one year contract anyway.  I think Kevin Barnes’ time to start is coming, if he earns it this year.  It would appear the Redskins will need to add a corner via the draft or free agency at some point in the near future, but that would have been the case anyway, even had they kept Rogers.  If the safety situation gets shored up at some point during the 2011 season, this will have been a successful year in the defensive secondary.  But at the genesis of the season, that unit has more questions than answers. 

Arrow to top