Happy Friday Cougs, and welcome to another spring fish wrap. If you are keeping track, we now have five done, and this will be #6 (that’s opponent #6 for WSU) – for the 2011 season.
And hey, Stanford. Lots going on, wouldn’t you say? A fantastic, dream of a year with an Orange Bowl blowout win, capping off a 12-1 season in 2010. Andrew Luck destroyed opposing defenses last year, basically doing what he wanted, when he wanted, then shocked draft nuts everywhere when he decided to stay at Stanford(!). And Jimmy Harbaugh finally decided to make the Quantum Leap, and it was off to the NFL!
So what does it all mean? Will Stanford still be a major nightmare for any team not prepared for their tough, physical brand of football? Or will the program already start taking big steps back as Harbaugh cruises the bay area in 49er colors? Let’s take a look…..
Still kind of weird to think about Harbaugh and Petey Carroll in the NFC West…..that is if we actually had NFL football. Excuse me for going off the rails here for a moment, but, END THE STUPID LOCKOUT ALREADY! Isn’t there a way we can all get along and divide up a $9 billion dollar pie in the process!? Gotta love greed, the backbone of the US economy….? But seriously, enough already. End the damn thing and let’s get going. I for one can’t wait to see the midfield exchange between these two former superpowers of the college ranks. Maybe Harbaugh’s rebuilding Niners will have to ask Pete what his deal is after the Seahawks take them apart at Qwest next fall?
Anyway, Harbaugh, Carroll, that’s all in the past from a Stanford point of view. What matters now is that David Shaw has stepped up the ladder and taken the head job, and it’s onward and upward for the Cardinal. Shaw brings with him a tough, no-nonsense approach, and will try to do the right thing – continue with what’s been working the last couple of years, while maybe tweaking a few things here and there.
Shaw’s been around the block at bit, and was with Harbaugh at USD before arriving in Palo Alto. He’s been there as a player (a wide receiver on some pretty good Stanford teams in the early 90’s), had a taste of the NFL coaching life style as an assistant in Philly, Oakland and Baltimore, and then the last four years he’s been on the staff at Stanford. But let’s make one thing perfectly clear – he’s NOT Harbaugh. You won’t see him go crazy on the sidelines, and he will definitely appear more calm and cool than Captain Comeback. But more than anything else, he’s seen it work from the inside on how you build up a program, and you better believe they will follow the plan to keep this sucker moving forward.
2010: 12-1, including an Orange Bowl blowout over Va-Tech. Other than a tough loss at Oregon when they actually held the lead early on, Stanford beat everyone else on the schedule in one of the greatest seasons in school history.
LAST TIME vs. WSU: The Cougs kinda-sorta hung around at Stanford last year, losing by 10, 38-28. But truth be told, it really wasn’t THAT close. Stanford actually owned a 31-7 lead entering the 4th quarter, and also led 38-14 with six minutes left. But hey, to WSU’s credit, they didn’t stop playing at least!?
2010 OFFENSIVE STATS: An impressive 472.5 yards per game in total offense, good for 12th in the country. They were 29th in the nation in passing yardage at 258.7 ypg, and a strong 17th in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 213.8 ypg. Best of all, they were 9th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging just over 40 points per game (40.3). Oh yeah, they finished 2nd in the nation in sacks allowed, as Luck was sacked just SIX times in 13 games! It was a glorious year of offense that was somewhat upstaged by Oregon’s amazing spread attack out west, but still, this was one HELL of an offense in 2010.
2011 RETURNING STARTERS – OFFENSE: After bringing back a ton of experience last year, the starters are down a bit this year. Stanford returns five starters on offense, and must replace some key cogs on the offensive line. Andrew Luck sure helps ease the sting though, doesn’t he??
OFFENSIVE SCHEME: Look for more of the same under Shaw and new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, who takes over the offensive coordinator duties after coaching the wide receivers last year. They will still employ a pro-set style offense with a fullback, tight end and QB snaps from under center.
TOP RETURNING OFFENSIVE PLAYER: Uh, yeah….
Regarded by some experts as the best QB prospect since, oh, how about Peyton Manning – and maybe even better than that when it’s all said and done – Luck is a fantastic college football player. He dominated in the stats department last year, throwing for over 3300 yards (3338) and 32 TD’s, to only 8 interceptions. Oh yeah, he was also the #2 rusher on the team, totaling a net of 453 yards on the ground and three more TD’s. Big, strong, tough, smart, classy, throws well on the run, in the pocket, great feet, yeah….he’s pretty much every scout’s dream.
The only question is how can Luck top what happened last year? Is it reasonable to think he’ll beat those passing and rushing numbers this year, with so many starters gone from the offense? And will they really top the 12-1 season of a year ago? Yes, the Stanford education is something that is difficult to measure – ok, not really, I mean across the board Stanford grads earn about $40,000 more than YOU per year based on a recent study – but still, can life really get any better? I guess the thing to remember is that Luck was a true Junior last year in terms of school years, but just a redshirt sophomore on the field. Maybe he’s rolling the dice on health, plus he’ll be giving teams another year to break him down on film and/or attempt to find a weakness…..
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQ-a-N9Y5mc&w=425&h=272]Good luck with that.
2010 DEFENSIVE STATS: As good as they were nationally on offense, they were just about as good on defense too. 19th in the nation in rushing D (120.85 ypg), 35th in pass defense (202 ypg), and finally, 21st in total defense, allowing 322.85 ypg, they were strong across the board and one of the most dramatically improved defenses in the country.
2011 RETURNING STARTERS – DEFENSE: 6
DEFENSIVE SCHEME: The defense has some new leadership in Derek Mason and Jason Tarver, as they take over for Vic Fangio, who left with Harbaugh to San Fran. But there may not be any real differences here with the new guys. Look for a 3-4 attacking scheme similar to what we’ve seen from Stanford last year that was so successful in taking a huge step foward.
TOP RETURNING DEFENSIVE PLAYER: It’s gotta be linebacker Shayne Skov.
After breaking onto the scene with 62 tackles as a true frosh in ’09, Skov had a huge 2010 season in which he led the team in tackles (84), tied for the team lead in sacks (7.5) and was second in tackles for loss overall. Prototype size at 6-3, 242, Skov flies around the field from the inside linebacker spot and is the big-play guy on Stanford’s defense.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amQU1TPoj1g&w=425&h=349]Skov is also a high riser in NFL circles, right now projected as the #7 inside linebacker for the 2013 NFL draft. No doubt a big Junior year will raise his stock even higher, and you better believe Stanford will make him the center of their defensive universe in ’11!
TOP POST-SPRING BALL QUESTIONS: 1) What are the biggest losses among the starters on offense? The bad news is that top receivers from 2010, Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin, have both graduated, leaving Stanford a little uncertain at wideout. But they still have Chris Owusu, who if healthy is one of the most explosive offensive weapons on the west coast. And the tight ends look strong, so Luck shouldn’t have any shortage of options in the passing game. But the biggest concern? It has to be how they will deal with losing three starters from one of the best offensive lines in school history, and certainly one of the best in the Pac-10 in the last few years. They do welcome back David DeCastro, one of the top guards in the nation and one of the best returning offensive linemen in the conference, and left tackle Jonathan Martin, an all-Pac-10 pick a year ago. But without a doubt, one of the biggest keys over the success in the last two seasons has been due to excellent line play, and there has to be some nervousness over how it will all settle in by fall.
2) Has the defense lost too much? The concern on D is replacing two out of three starters on the D-line, and overall some “star” power has left the building in nose guard Sione Fua, linebacker Owen Marecic and cornerback Richard Sherman. They do bring back Matt Masifilo for his senior year at defensive end, and he will be looked upon early and often to lead the new faces on the d-line. The safeties look good though, led by strong safety Delano Howell, so they might be good enough in key spots to overcome the loss of some pretty good players from 2010’s defense. But no doubt about it, there are some pretty big shoes to fill on the defensive side of the ball on a very underrated defense from last year.
3) The schedule?? It looks pretty manageable. The out of conference opponents are the opener vs. San Jose State, then they travel to play at Duke the following week. And of course, the annual game vs. Notre Dame to close out the 2011 season. Overall they get seven home games, including three of their first five and three straight home games to close out the schedule. Among the biggest games of the year, they get to host Oregon and Cal, but have to travel to USC and Oregon State. And they do get to miss ASU and Utah this year, and both of those teams could be in the bowl mix. So overall the schedule doesn’t look too bad.
POST SPRING BALL RAMBLINGS, DOT-DOT-DOT STYLE……Much is made of the losses to the offensive line, and for good reason. They just came off a two year run as probably the best line in school history. Did you know that overall, they allowed only 13 sacks combined the last two seasons!? That’s after they allowed a combined 69 sackes the two years prior (48 in ’07, 21 in ’08). Quite the turnaround! And for the third year in a row, they averaged over 200 yards rushing per game (200 in ’08, 218 in ’09, 213.8 in ’10). The strong o-line play was a staple of the Harbaugh regime, so keeping up that level may be tough to repeat in ’11……Despite the losses on the line, Luck will have some really good options to hand off to in the running backs. The top four rushers return from last year, led by Stepfan Taylor’s 1137 yards, 15 TD’s and 5.1 yards per carry. And while Taylor is not exactly Toby Gerhart, still, his 1,137 rushing yards were the second most in school history, only behind Gerhart’s 1,871 yards from 2009. But Jeremy Stewart, Anthony Wilkerson and Tyler Gaffney are all back this fall to help share the load. Wilkerson could be a big key this season, as he totaled over 400 yards rushing last year, while Gaffney was second on the team with 4 rushing TD’s while averaging 4.3 yards per carry…..The offense has been very, very good the last two years, but how good? They set the school record for points scored in 2009, 461, but then shattered that mark by scoring 524 points in 2010. That’s 985 points in just two seasons! Plus the offense totaled over 6,000 yards in 2010, also a school record, and were #1 in the nation in red zone offensive efficiency at 57%……The NFL draft has seen it’s ups and downs at Stanford the last 11 years. Stanford had four players taken in this spring’s NFL draft, with Sione Fua, Owen Marecic, Richard Sherman and Ryan Whalen all moving on to play at the next level. Overall they have had 35 players taken in the last 11 NFL drafts, putting them just behind Cal at 4th in the conference in draft choices over that time. What’s weird is that Stanford was shut out in the draft in 2008 and 2009, but had at least three players taken in eight of the last 11 drafts. They twice had six players taken in that time frame (2005 and 2002)……Stanford has had five QB’s taken in the 1st round, with of course John Elway as the headliner. But did you know that Stanford has actually produced three #1 NFL draft picks at QB? Elway, Jim Plunkett (’71) and Bobby Garrett (’54) all were #1 draft choices. If things go as planned, there is little doubt Luck will join that list……Stanford has been loving the home cooking. After a perfect 6-0 run at home last year, they are now 16-2 over the last three years at the Farm!…..In kind of a weird twist, Stanford will be the fourth team out of the first six teams that WSU will face in 2011 with a brand new head coach (Idaho State, San Diego State, and Colorado)…..Recruiting continues to shine, the true backbone of Stanford’s rise to elite status. Stanford signed the #19 class in the country in February, and have now been ranked in the top 24 for three straight years. It could be a great sign for the future that Shaw was able to hold together a top-20 class after he took over in January…..Some of the top Stanford sites around are thebootleg.com, part of Scout.com; RuleofTree.com, part of the SB Nation network; Jon Wilner’s College Hotline blog, one of the best college writers in the country; the DailyAxe.com; and finally, the “unofficial” Stanford Blog.com, a good read about pretty much everything.
For the other 2011 spring fish wraps so far, go here.
All for now. Enjoy your Friday, and as always, GO COUGS!
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